Egypt is going through extensive changes which may have a drastic effect on its peace accords with Israel. Dr. Balanga believes that even though the Brotherhood’s candidate Muhammad Morsi was declared president yesterday, the chances of the accords being completely annulled are slim. The primary reason for this is financial. Egypt is currently struggling for its financial survival. Annulment of the accords would bring US financial aid to Egypt to a halt, causing the loss of billions of dollars a year. Egypt cannot afford such a loss. An all-out war with Israel is out of the question; Egypt does not have the financial backing to finance such a costly war. What we can expect to see is a demand for a renegotiation of the accords and a change of some of the parameters. Morsi will pose a real problem for Israel, complicating Israel’s security situation along its southern borders with Egypt and Gaza. This situation can cause an escalation of violence in that area, but Egypt will not attack Israel in a full frontal war.
The region is rapidly changing, rulers are constantly being replaced, and when Israel sets its future plans, it must search for long term and solid solutions which rely on its own capabilities and plans, and not on the good will of any ruler or government which may not exist the day after an agreement is signed with them.
