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November 29, 2014 / 7 Kislev, 5775
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America’s Problems in the Middle East are Just Beginning

America forgets that it corrected the flaw in its founding by killing 30 percent of Southern men of military age during its own Civil War.
"A harvest of deathת" a famous scene from the aftermath of the Battle of Gettysburg, in Pennsylvania, in July of 1863.

"A harvest of deathת" a famous scene from the aftermath of the Battle of Gettysburg, in Pennsylvania, in July of 1863.

It’s 2015, and there is a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. The Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas), financed by Iran, wins an election on a platform demanding the expulsion of the Jews from Israel. Iran meanwhile smuggles shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to terrorist cells in Palestine that can take down civilian airlines at Ben-Gurion airport. With backing from the Egyptian military, Fatah throws out the elected Hamas government and kills larger number of Hamas supporters. What will Washington do? Given the track record of both the Obama administration and the Republican mainstream, one would expect America to denounce the use of violence against a democratically-elected government.

Such is the absurdity of both parties’ stance towards Egypt: the Egyptian military is doing America’s dirty work, suppressing a virulently anti-modern, anti-Semitic and anti-Western Islamist movement whose leader, Mohammed Morsi, famously referred to Israelis as “apes and pigs.” It did so with the enthusiastic support of tens of millions of Egyptians who rallied in the streets in support of the military. And the American mainstream reacted with an ideological knee jerk. America’s presence in the Middle East has imploded.

As it happens, Iran already is smuggling weapons via Syria to the West Bank to gain leverage against the Abbas government, as Stratfor reports (hat tip: the Daily Alert ), including surface-to-air and anti-tank missiles. Hamas crushed Fatah in the 2006 West Bank elections parliamentary elections 74-45, and made short work of the supposedly moderate Palestinian faction when it seized power in Gaza in 2007. As Syria disintegrates, along with Iraq and Lebanon, the artificial borders of Arab states drawn first by Ottoman conquerors and revised by British and French colonial authorities will have small meaning. Palestinians caught up in the Syrian and and Lebanese conflagrations would pour into a new Palestinian state and swell the ranks of the hard-core Jihadi irredentists. Iran will continue to use Hamas as a cat’s paw.

Among other things, the American response to the events in Egypt show the utter pointlessness of American security guarantees in the present negotiations between Israel and the Palestine Authority. Even in the extremely unlikely event that Mohammed Abbas chose to make peace with Israel, he would face a high probability of civil war, just as Ireland’s independence leader Michael Collins did when he struck a deal with the British for an Irish “Free State” rather than a republic. Collins killed more Irishmen than the British did in the preceding independence struggle. I do not want to compare Abbas to Collins, and I do not think he has any attention of making peace with Israel. But American blundering in Egypt has closed out the option, for whoever makes peace with Israel will require a free hand with Iranian-backed rejectionists.

America forgets that it corrected the flaw in its founding by killing 30 percent of Southern men of military age during its own Civil War, so many that the Confederate Army collapsed for lack of manpower. There are numerous wars which do not end until all the young men who want to fight to the death have had the opportunity to do so. And of all of history’s conflicts, none was so likely to end with this sort of demographic attrition as the present war in the Middle East. Compared to the young Arabs, Persians and Pakistanis of today, American Southerners of 1861 were models of middle-class rectitude, with the world’s highest living standards and bright prospects for the future. The Europeans of 1914 stood at the cusp of modernity; one only can imagine what they might have accomplished had they not committed mutual suicide in two World Wars.

Today’s Middle Eastern and South Asian Muslims have grim future prospects. The world economy has left them behind, and they cannot catch up. Egypt was at the threshold of starvation and economic collapse when the military intervened, bringing in subsidies from the Gulf monarchies. The young men of the Middle East have less to lose, perhaps, than any generation in any country in modern times. As we observe in Syria, large numbers of them will fight to the death.

America cannot bear to think about its own Civil War because the wounds are too painful; in order to reunite the country after 1865, we concocted a myth of tragic fratricide. Wilsonian idealism was born of the South’s attempt to suppress its guilt for the war, I have argued in the past. That is an academic consideration now. America’s credibility in the Middle East, thanks to the delusions of both parties, is broken, and it cannot be repaired within the time frame required to forestall the next stage of violence. Egypt’s military and its Saudi backers are aghast at American stupidity. Israel is frustrated by America’s inability to understand that Egypt’s military is committed to upholding the peace treaty with Israel while the Muslim Brotherhood wants war. Both Israel and the Gulf States observe the utter fecklessness of Washington’s efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

The events of the past week have demonstrated that America’s allies in the Middle East from Israel to the Persian Gulf can trust no-one in Washington-neither Barack Obama nor John McCain. Those of us in America who try to analyze events in the region will be the last to hear the news, and the value of our work will diminish over time.

Behind the News in Israel.

About the Author: David P. Goldman writes the "Spengler" column for Asia Times Online, and contributes frequently to The Tablet, First Things, and other publications. He was global head of debt research for Bank of America (2002-2005), global head of credit strategy for Credit Suisse (1998-2002), and also held senior positions at Bear Stearns and Cantor Fitzgerald.


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7 Responses to “America’s Problems in the Middle East are Just Beginning”

  1. CpaHoffman says:

    the writer of this article should have his meds checked by a responsible medical professional

  2. Do you notice that all the pictures are of Rebel dead…the victors write the history! De Vendice

  3. POTUS Obama, a muslim and believer in 'black liberation' theology, is no friend of Israel, indeed, he is no friend of America either. There will be little if any help coming to Israel from him or the US government while his regime holds power…a power on the wain. Israel will 'never' have peace with the muslim nations save that peace which comes from the barrel of a gun; tolerating the evil of an oppressive foreign element within the borders of greater Israel is hateful and beyond the pale of the true Manifest Destiny of Israel. It is time to take the initiative and use the power, the very real power, which we Jews have to destroy this enemy of all mankind that will accept nothing less than 'total submission' from the rest of the world…and the destruction of all Jews & Christians.

  4. Another le blaming the West for the mayhem of radical Islam. So repetitive a subject withe the classic criticism devoid of suggestions , answers and solutions. In this case also add insults based on events from centuries ago.

  5. Carter, Obama, H. Clinton and Kerry the trouble kids in the Midle East, the future policy?, civil wars in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, West Bank, Gaza, and in long term Israel can dissapear?

  6. Dan Bartz says:

    This is speculation, fiction, a story. If someone can predict the future do accurately, they should be investing in the stock market. Maybe this guy should be the new Minister of Propaganda. .

  7. RobertSchumacher says:

    Not everyone in America signed up to have this insane unwavering allegiance to Israel. Sorry but most people don’t want these Mideast wars until 2030 as projected by the neocons. In 2015 we should be out of the Mideast permanently. This is not Americas problem. Our past government of psychopaths, Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld illegally destroyed Iraq. We need a strong future president and new congress who will tell AIPAC and Israel NO! We want no more involvement in the Mideast or their wars. We can find our own resources on our land and break free from this destructive force! America must break free from the destructive neocons of the past for good, so that we survive! It is for OUR greater good!

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