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October 21, 2014 / 27 Tishri, 5775
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TOO SOON

Ceasefire Tonight, Same War All Over Again Day after Tomorrow

Operation Pillar of Defense will only buy Israel a few months of quiet.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his weekly cabinet meeting.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his weekly cabinet meeting.
Photo Credit: Miriam Alster/FLASH90

As soon as the IDF started pounding the Gaza strip with massive artillery fire and attacks from the air, it was a sign of the end of this polite skirmish. In fact, as soon as the artillery started, I knew it was either to soften the ground in preparation for the ground invasion, or the final salvo armies traditionally deliver before the truce, to inflict as much damage as they still can, and so they’ll have less to schlep home afterwards.

Wars are a wonderful way to clear up the shelves for the new shipment of ammo.

Like the rest of us, Netanyahu, Barak, Liberman et al have weighed the benefits and risks of a ground invasion of a densely populated and very hostile Gaza, and decided to be prudent. All they need is for one bad move to end up in mass killings of either our boys, God forbid, or, possibly even worse, Arab civilians, two months before the elections. So they kicked the can to themselves down the road, as many have anticipated.

After today’s cabinet meeting, one senior Israeli official told Reuters: “Before deciding on a ground invasion, the prime minister intends to exhaust the diplomatic move in order to see if a long-term ceasefire can be achieved.”

Diplomatic moves must include Egypt, Gaza’s Muslim Brothers’ home office. President Mohamed Morsi took a call from Obama on Monday, with a clear request (we’ll call it that) to make Hamas stop shooting rockets into Israel.

The Egyptians have been working on that project ever since (well, almost two days, but it felt longer). We’ll see what kind of hybrid they’ve cobbled.

Here are the difficulties Israel had to consider:

1. It cannot negotiate with Hamas without directly destabilizing the Fatah government in Judea and Samaria. 2. It cannot invade Gaza without removing Hamas which entails staying there as a provisional government – not something the Israeli PM is looking forward to. 3. Whatever truce is reached tonight will not be worth the paper on which it is written.

All of the above suggests that the military cost of Operation Pillar of Defense, combined with the 1200 reported cases of serious damage to property over the past week – not to speak of the lives lost – will only buy Israel a few months of quiet.

Netanyahu, Barak, and Liberman tonight decided to avoid confronting the bully all the way. But as history teaches us, the bully you failed to confront in 1936, at a relatively low cost, or in 1938, at a higher cost, finally forced you to confront him in 1939 at the highest cost imaginable.

I wish all of us a safe life and a happy Hanukah.

About the Author: Yori Yanover has been a working journalist since age 17, before he enlisted and worked for Ba'Machane Nachal. Since then he has worked for Israel Shelanu, the US supplement of Yedioth, JCN18.com, USAJewish.com, Lubavitch News Service, Arutz 7 (as DJ on the high seas), and the Grand Street News. He has published Dancing and Crying, a colorful and intimate portrait of the last two years in the life of the late Lubavitch Rebbe, (in Hebrew), and two fun books in English: The Cabalist's Daughter: A Novel of Practical Messianic Redemption, and How Would God REALLY Vote.


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11 Responses to “Ceasefire Tonight, Same War All Over Again Day after Tomorrow”

  1. William J Hurst says:

    Doubt if it will last a few months. It is the time when all faces seem to be gathering blackness against Israel – Jer_12:9 Mine heritage is unto me as a speckled bird, the birds round about are against her; come ye, assemble all the beasts of the field, come to devour.
    — Zec_12:2 Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of trembling unto all the people round about, when they shall be in the siege both against Judah and against Jerusalem. —

  2. Arie Rosenrauch says:

    A netanyahu agreement to cease fire now (and it will be called a lull) is an act of cowardice and political suicide. He will be personally responsible for future Israeli deaths.

  3. The terms that Hamas with Turkey, Egypt, and the EU will propose include opening the border with Israel and would be a huge victory for Hamas.

    In return Hamas will wait patiently for it's deliveries of atomic weapons from Iran.

  4. Anonymous says:

    I have to laugh at all of you "tough guys" in the USA who are demanding that Israel move forward with a ground attack in Gaza. I wonder if you hawks would be so gung-ho if you were Israeli soldiers. NOT!

  5. Charlie Hall says:

    I support whatever the decision the Israeli government makes. Those of us in the diaspora are not in a position to second guess.

  6. Norma Biblow says:

    120,000,000 shekels waisted, on talks and no action! The will stop for 2 days and then they will start again. :(

  7. Darryl Harris says:

    It's time for our beloved. Israel to start. The found war and kill these militant. Muslims that only want to terrorize God's people. Let's give them what they want lets setup the meeting. I'm sure instead of virgins they will get will be hell itself

  8. Charlie Hall says:

    Not for me to decide, Norma.

  9. Myriam Obadia says:

    It didn't even last that long. 1st siren on Ashkelon around 7AM. Oh well, how does one reason with a death worshiper?

  10. IRAQ, IRAN AND PALESTINE WILL KILL ALL JEWISH IN THE WORLD…

  11. INCLUDING MANY ROCKET FROM LEBANON KILL JEWISH….

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