The economic crisis in Eastern Africa encourages the governments of these states to invest in economic initiatives – in agriculture, tourism and industry – all of which need water, and therefore they take advantage of the rain water that falls in their fields. This water would have contributed to the sources of the Nile in the past, but now it is trapped within the states of the horn of Africa. Therefore, the flow of water in the Nile is decreasing, and Sudan (in both of its parts) and Egypt, which are downriver, receive a smaller quantity of water, and of a lower quality, because there is not infrastructure for treatment of waste water anywhere along the Nile. This raises the tension/pressure between Egyptians and Sudanis and they are investing much effort to prevent the retention of water in the horn of Africa. Tension in this matter between the states is increasing, and this does not contribute to a relaxed atmosphere between Arab-Muslim Egypt and Sudan on the one hand, and the states of Eastern Africa on the other. The fact that the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis won two thirds of the seats in Egypt’s parliament represents a threat to the other states of Africa, who fear the encroachment of a strengthening Islamist trend, as well as increased involvement by Islamist Egypt in what happens within their borders.
Conclusion: The population of Africa is involved in a series of disputes with a tribal background, where the Islamist and ethnic components play an important, and sometimes critical, role. Saudi Arabian money, Wahhabi propaganda, the presence of terror organizations, and wide distribution of weapons (some of which disappeared from weapons storehouses of the Libyan army as a result of the fall of Qadhaffi), do not contribute to a calming of the tensions between the various groups of the African population, and developing trends do not point in the direction of calm.
About the Author: Dr. Mordechai Kedar (Ph.D. Bar-Ilan U.) Served for 25 years in IDF Military Intelligence specializing in Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups and the Syrian domestic arena. A lecturer in Arabic at Bar-Ilan U., he is also an expert on Israeli Arabs.
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