web analytics
July 30, 2015 / 14 Av, 5775
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post


‘Effective Sanctions’ Against Iran? Not an Option

IAF F-16B Fighter Jet

IAF F-16B Fighter Jet
Photo Credit: Ofer Zidon/Flash90

The idea of “effective sanctions” against Iran in the current global political reality constitutes an oxymoron that plays right into the hands of Iran.

Effective sanctions require the full cooperation of Russia and China, two strategic rivals of the US, as demonstrated by their UN Security Council double-veto of the October 2011 and February 2012 anti-Assad resolutions. They do not fully cooperate with sanctions invoked against Iran, and instead assist the Tehran regime – as do some European countries. Furthermore, Japan, India, and Turkey have subordinated compliance with sanctions to their trade relations with Iran, as have some countries in Latin America and Europe.

Each new sanction against Iran requires several months for effectiveness assessment. Thus, it extends the time available to Iran to develop its nuclear capabilities, as well as to acquire critical technologies and systems from North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, or China.

Forty years of US economic sanctions against North Korea – which does not harbor Iran-like megalomaniac aspirations – have failed to topple the regime or prevent its nuclearization. Fifty years of sanctions against Cuba has also reaffirmed the constraints of sanctions against rogue regimes, which subject their people to ruthless dictatorships and ideological brainwashing.

Sanctions have usually been employed in order to avoid the tougher – and more effective – options, which are required to produce regime-change or dramatic policy-alteration. Sanctions express loud and clear disapproval of certain regimes and policies, but generally fail to achieve their goal.

The preoccupation with “effective sanctions” and diplomacy ignores the gravity and immediacy of the clear, present, and devastating threat to the US posed by a nuclear Iran – independent of Israel’s existence and policies.

Like Bin Laden, who had ample opportunities to hit Israel but preferred to hit the US and Western Europe, Iran considers the US and NATO (and Saudi Arabia) its top enemies, its most formidable obstacles in the way of assuming domination of the Persian Gulf, and therefore, its top targets.

A nuclear Iran would cause a meltdown of pro-US Gulf regimes through violent regime changes, and/or via a dramatic policy changes by the currently pro-US Gulf regimes. Iran’s nuclear intimidation of Central Asian (former USSR) countries would tilt them toward Teheran or Moscow and against the US.

A nuclear Iran would accelerate nuclear proliferation in the Mid-East, the role model of instability, unpredictability and violent regime change – a nightmare scenario for global harmony. According to former Vice Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine Corps General James Cartwright, such a scenario would be “my number one proliferation concern globally…extremely, extremely dangerous.” Saudi Arabia is currently registering its Iran-driven panic with US Senators and House Representatives, pleading for military preemption, while expediting its own nuclear initiative. It could acquire nuclear capabilities from Pakistan, which has been a closely-aligned beneficiary of crucial Saudi financial support for its own nuclear facilities. Hence, Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Founding Father of Pakistan’s nuclear program, recently visited Saudi Arabia, which has also concluded a series of civilian nuclear cooperation agreements with China, France, South Korea and Argentina. Egypt would not lag too far behind Saudi Arabia, its intra-Arab rival, stepping-up its already advanced nuclear program, as would Turkey, which aspires to hegemony in the Muslim World.

A nuclear Iran would intimidate Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing Gulf States, threatening the normal operations of their oil infrastructure, dramatically influencing oil quota and price, interfering with – and possibly disrupting – the supply of oil, directly impacting the price at the pump and the level of unemployment in the US and the West.

A nuclear Iran would bolster its existing beachheads in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Mexico – which host Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran’s elite extraterritorial Quds Force. It could transfer some nuclear systems to its Latin American allies, six of which recently hosted Ahmadinejad – who is systematically enhancing Iran’s security profile on the American continent.

A nuclear Iran would provide a significant tailwind to scores, or hundreds, of sleeper cells in the US and Canada, as well as to anti-US global Islamic terrorism.

The highly exaggerated cost of military preemption – by the US or by Israel – would be dwarfed by the aforementioned threats of a nuclear Iran, in addition to the nuclear threat which would hover above US soldiers in the Gulf and above the US mainland. A regime which sacrificed 500,000 of its own children in order to clear minefields, during the 1980-1988 war against Iraq, is capable of launching nuclear warheads, irrespective of the cost.

An effective preemption should not be limited to critical nuclear facilities, but should simultaneously devastate Iran’s missile and air defense capabilities, thus minimizing the scope of Iran’s retaliation. An effective preemption would not include the occupation of Iran, thus distinguishing itself from Iraq’s 1980 invasion of Iran, which coalesced all Iranians against the threat to their sovereignty. An effective preemption is a prerequisite for regime-change through domestic opposition – which was disillusioned by the lack of Western support in 2009.

About the Author: Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger is consultant to Israel’s Cabinet members and Israeli legislators, and lecturer in the U.S., Canada and Israel on Israel’s unique contributions to American interests, the foundations of U.S.-Israel relations, the Iranian threat, and Jewish-Arab issues.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “‘Effective Sanctions’ Against Iran? Not an Option”

Comments are closed.

Current Top Story
Israelis visit the former northern Samaria town of Sa-Nur.
Tears From 2 Security Officers, Refusals to Expel Sa-Nur Families
Latest Indepth Stories
Talks between Iran and the P5+1 were likely to be extended beyond Obama's self-imposed deadline.

Names of the enablers of Iran’s Nuclear weapons will be added next to Hitler’s on the list of infamy

By most accounts, the one person with the political muscle to swing enough Democratic votes to override a veto is Sen. Schumer.

The next day, in a speech in New York to the Council on Foreign Relations, Mr. Kerry substantially upped the ante.

In Israel, the judiciary has established itself as superior to ALL other branches of the government.

The Fifteenth Day of the month of Av became a day of national rejoicing. The moment that had seemed hopeless became the moment of Redemption.

I think the melodies in our religious services have a haunting sound to them that just permeates your guts and gets into your soul. If you have any musical inclination, I think they inspire you to compose.

Cavalier analogies to the Holocaust are unacceptable, but Huckabee’s analogy was very appropriate.

Pollard was a Jewish-head-on-a-pike for all American Jews to see and to learn the explicit lesson.

If the Iran deal passes, Obama’s WH becomes world’s leading financier of terrorism against Americans

{Originally posted to the author’s website, FirstOne Through} Some passionate and eloquent liberals have bemoaned the state of inclusiveness among Jews today. Leon Wieseltier, editor of the New Republic penned an angry piece “J Street’s Rejection Is a Scandal” about the exclusion in 2014 of J Street from the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. […]

Magnanimity by Moshe Dayan, allowing Muslim control of the Temple Mount, led to today’s situation.

It was modeled upon a similar fund that had been set up by Sephardic Jews in Venice. But Amsterdam’s Dotar was initially more ambitious in scope.

Rav Aharon Margalit is a bestselling author – his book, As Long As I Live, has been translated into four languages – and a standing-room only lecturer. Both religious and non-religious audiences flock to hear him. What makes him so extraordinary? Rav Margalit is a Chasidic Jew who experienced incredible challenges from a very young […]

J Street is the vanguard (Jewish face)in support of Obama’s Vienna Accords Nuclear Deal with Iran

More Articles from Yoram Ettinger
Map of the Middle East

“The enemy of my enemy is my potential ally” view has consistently led to Middle East mismanagement

Ticker tape at Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.

Based on Israel’s record, current events are mere bumps on the road to great growth&acceptability

Intra-Arab/Muslim terrorism has been a Middle East fixture since the 7th century emergence of Islam

ANY agreement with Iran should have been predicated upon the drastic transformation of the regime

Unlike USSR, Ayatollahs driven by martyrdom & apocalypse NOT MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) theory

Abbas’ regime is defined by corruption, kleptomania, nepotism, hate-education, incitement, terrorism

Could the enemy (Saudi Arabia) of Israel’s enemy (Iran) become Israel’s friend? It’s highly doubtful

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/effective-sanctions-against-iran-not-an-option/2012/02/23/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: