web analytics
April 23, 2014 / 23 Nisan, 5774
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
Spa 1.2 Combining Modern Living in Traditional Jerusalem

A unique and prestigious residential project in now being built in Mekor Haim Street in Jerusalem.



Deciphering the Chinese and American Korea Strategy

Slinging force around, with press notices, is not what a strong president does.
North Korea

Share Button

It’s as if Obama has never taken the trouble to know that the dealings between nations do hinge on real and particular issues, even when – especially when – the nations come into conflict.  In one way or another, we always negotiate our way into conflict; it erupts when one side says “no,” and the other side won’t be satisfied with that.  Very often, there is a very good reason for the “no.”  And up until the “no” happens, the nations are “talking” real specifics with each other, whether directly, obliquely, or through an intermediary.  The meaning of force deployments in this context is generally unmistakable.  It is clear what each side wants, and what the force is intended to convey.

In the real world, if you haven’t got anything specific to say, you shouldn’t be slinging major weapon systems around as if you did.  We don’t expect better from Kim Jong-Un, who was raised to be a Marxist nut throwback.  (We’ll see if there turns out to be method in his madness.)  But we should require better of the president of the United States.  What does Obama want North Korea to do?  What is his policy on the Koreas?  How does he think American security is affected by them?  What is his vision for a pacified East Asia, taking into account our ally Japan and the great nations Russia and China, whom we cannot simply ignore?  What is the end-state in view?

None of these questions can be answered, because Obama hasn’t addressed them.  That is the real context in which China has to make decisions.  When Beijing mobilizes military forces at the border with North Korea, it’s not because the Chinese think it will be necessary to use them to control Kim.  It’s because they aren’t sure what Obama is going to do.  The purpose is to clarify China’s interest in the situation, and the reality that intervening in North Korea will result in a confrontation with China.

China can Benefit from a Stymied United States

I don’t think China is behind Kim’s current brinkmanship; specifically, I don’t think China has to be.  Kim can think this stuff up himself.  But given the view of Obama held by China’s leadership, I do assess that the Chinese would be happy to see the U.S. twist in the wind, if Kim can find a way to confound us after a season of U.S. threat-making.  The Chinese are in no hurry to settle this situation down.

If Pyongyang brings off another missile launch, and the U.S. does nothing – if the reactor at Yongbyon is started up again, and the U.S. does nothing – tensions will be raised in East Asia for the foreseeable future, and U.S. power will not have been able to reduce them.  American prestige in the region will decline, the longer Kim can continue to do the occasional bad thing, while barking out his sclerotic-commie-regime imbecilities.

The U.S. is likely at some point to be faced with the need to do more than “contain” the situation, and at that point, it’s a good question whether our allies will still have confidence in us.  If press disclosures about sending in mighty warships don’t deter Kim from launching missiles and producing more plutonium, what then?  How many “pinpricks” from him will Seoul have to absorb?  What will change in the U.S-Japan relationship, if Tokyo has to manage a state of real and constant alarm about missiles from North Korea?

The Kim regime is a superb convenience for Beijing: an ally with excellent potential to get someone like Obama to imply more than he can deliver, when it comes to regional security.  China doesn’t have to do it herself; she can contain the U.S. reaction by mobilizing on the border, and let Kim’s antics flummox us and undercut our prestige and influence in the Far East.  China is playing a long game – one that was handed to her by Obama himself – and the unknown variable in China’s game is not Kim but Obama.

Has China assessed him correctly?  In terms of whether he would actually take military action against North Korea, I believe so.  The Chinese estimate that he will be deterred from that by a quiet display of will from China.  They are probably right.  Whatever happens, Obama will sell it successfully with the American public and the Western press as a victory – but if it’s actually a U.S. backdown, the South Koreans and Japanese will see that clearly.  And they’re the ones who matter to China’s calculation that the Obama policy on shifting America’s emphasis to the Pacific can be neutralized.

Share Button

About the Author:


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

No Responses to “Deciphering the Chinese and American Korea Strategy”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
Abbas and Hanieyh on poster, next to a picture of Arafat.
Kerry’s Talks Achieve Peace Between Hamas and Fatah
Latest Indepth Stories
Al-Aksa Mosque was claimed to be the site from which Mohammed ascended to Heaven, but it was built nearly 50 years after Mohammed died.

Jerusalem only seems important in the Islamic world when non-Muslims control or capture the city.

Israeli police enter the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem's Old City to disperse stone-throwing Palestinian protesters.

Jordan’s king is adding fuel to the fire on the Temple Mount, blaming Israel for violence by Muslim Arab rioters.

Imam Suhail Webb who boasted his Muslim community persuaded Brandeis President Fred Lawrence to withdraw an invitation to Ayaan Hirsi Ali.

At Brandeis, much of what counts as Western civilization got cold feet and won’t stand with Hirsi Ali.

Text of anti-Semitic flyer distributed to Jews in Donetsk, Ukraine on Passover 2014.

But the lesson from this meditation is that hidden behind the anti-semitic act is the greatest light.

As support of their messianic dream, Halevi and Antepli approve dishonoring Hirsi Ali as a ‘renegade.’

If itis a mitzva to eat matza all Pesach, then why is there no berakha attached to it?

When we are united with unconditional love, no stone will be raised against us by our enemies.

The reporter simply reports the news, but it is greater to be inspired to better the situation.

The Big Bang theory marked the scientific community’s first sense of the universe having a beginning.

Freeing convicted murderers returns the status of Jewish existence to something less than sanctified.

“The bigger they are the harder they fall” describes what God had in mind for Olmert.

We, soldiers of the IDF, who stand guard over the people and the land, fulfill the hopes of the millions of Jewish people across the generations who sought freedom.

How much is the human mind able to grasp of the Divine?

Jews have brought the baggage of the galut (exile) mentality to the modern state of Israel.

The Haggadah is an instruction manual on how to survive as strangers in strange lands.

More Articles from J. E. Dyer
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Who will he take to the dance?

Oslo’s moment of unchallenged American supremacy and the illusion of unforced global stasis, passed.

USA-FRANCE-OBAMA

Could the Obamas be any more “let ‘em eat cake”?

The Obama administration wants to take over the short-term financial services industry.

The topics are “The Reagan Strategy,” and the “Iran Time Bomb.”

Maybe it’s a tad undiplomatic to announce it publicly before telling Israel’s prime minister about it?

Nobody wants a wind turbine in his back yard.

Monday, November 11, Russia’s Slava-class missile cruiser Varyag pulled into Alexandria for the Russian navy’s first port visit in Egypt since 1992.

There may no longer be a unifying “center” to hold the GOP together.

    Latest Poll

    Now that Kerry's "Peace Talks" are apparently over, are you...?







    View Results

    Loading ... Loading ...

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/j-e-dyer/deciphering-the-chinese-and-american-korea-strategy/2013/04/09/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: