web analytics
August 28, 2014 / 2 Elul, 5774
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat (L) visits the JewishPress.com booth at The Event. And the Winners of the JewishPress.com Raffle Are…

Congratulations to all the winners of the JewishPress.com raffle at The Event



J.E. Dyer: Tumultus Post-Americanus

Anti-American and anti-Israel demonstration

Photo Credit: Issam Rimawi/Flash90

The Great Military Bust-Out of this decade has many facets; they can’t all be retailed in a single post.  There are more than the ones I will mention here, but the following list includes some of the most important developments affecting conditions over which the US has exercised supremacy for the last 20 years.  The challenge is underway.  The world will never revert to the post-1945 “Pax Americana”; whatever stability we enjoy in the future will have to be cobbled together out of a changed geopolitical landscape.

Syria and Southwest Asia

Syria is, in key ways, merely a geographic focus of a much larger regional upheaval.  The Western media persist in misunderstanding the dynamics of this situation.  Russia cannot and will not allow Syria to be guided into the hands of Islamist radicals by a Western-Arab consortium.  As far as Russia is concerned, Erdogan in Turkey is already an Islamist with radical tendencies, and with Mohammed Morsi, “tendencies” are not even the issue: he is an out-and-out radical.

Russia sees this, in fact, more clearly than the West does.  These men are Islamists.  That doesn’t mean the West is bound to adopt a hostile position toward them.  It would have been nice if we had established a more serious policy on state Islamism several years ago (something Bush as well as Obama could have done better on), and taken a greater interest in the outcomes of the Arab Spring – but we are where we are.  Our policy now should be to discourage Islamist takeovers anywhere else, most particularly in Syria, and to build up economic and political power around the newly Islamist nations, and clearly indicate our intent to preserve – and improve and strengthen – the conditions of Western freedom.  Doing this in Syria would be a signal victory.

But we are not pursuing any such policy.  Instead, we are supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in its effort to take over Syria (see here, here, here, and here as well).  Remarkably, the Brotherhood-led Syrian National Council was close to strategic collapse earlier this year, but the Brotherhood’s fortunes have been revived by the combined assistance of the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.  Objectively, the Russians are not wrong to conclude that we intend to foster Islamism in Syria, as apparently in other Arab Spring nations as well.

Kavkaz 2012

Russia’s concerns with security in South Asia and the Middle East are coming to a head in September in the major exercise “Kavkaz 2012.”  (Kavkaz means “Caucasus.”)  Kavkaz 2012 will be the most comprehensively-scoped Russian military exercise in the Caucasus since the collapse of the Soviet Union, involving all of the conventional services, the internal security services, and even the “strategic” forces, which would include at a minimum the strategic rocket (missile) force and the strategic bomber force.

It is by no means improbable that the Russians will also simulate launches from ballistic-missile submarines – or, indeed, conduct live launches, although their incorporation in a strategic-defense scenario would be notional.  The missile(s) would land, as usual, on the remote Kamchatka peninsula in the Far East.  If the Russians wanted to make a really pointed statement, they could launch a missile to a “broad ocean area” impact point in the Pacific, something they haven’t done since the Cold War.  They are likely to demonstrate their newest strategic missiles, in any event.

The use of strategic forces in a Caucasus-defense scenario opens up the possibility of simulated reactions against American allies, or even the United States.  How it plays out will be  informative, clarifying how the Russians see the security issues there, and sending a signal as to how they will respond to a US incursion (i.e., in Iran), should it occur.

The Russian forces deployed for Kavkaz 2012 in Armenia and the provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia – fully sufficient for a medium-scale military action – will also flank Georgia.   Analysts have pointed out the alarm this must cause in Tbilisi, especially given the exercise’s objective of establishing “transit corridors” for the Russian military through Georgia, “if necessary.”  Georgian independence remains a thorn in Moscow’s side; the Russians justify their posture with predictions that the US will operate out of Georgia if we or Israel go into Iran.

About the Author: J.E. Dyer is a retired US Naval intelligence officer who served around the world, afloat and ashore, from 1983 to 2004.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “J.E. Dyer: Tumultus Post-Americanus”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
A search team in the Jerusalem Forest looking for Aharon Sofer
Body Found in Jerusalem Forest Being Examined On Site by Abu Kabir Experts
Latest Indepth Stories
naqba day unrwa

Responsibility lies with both the UN and Hamas, and better commitments should have been demanded from both parties in the ceasefire.

Eisenstock-082914

But the world is forever challenging our Jewish principle and our practices.

MK Moshe-Feiglin

If this is how we play the game, we will lose. By that I mean we will lose everything.

Reportedly, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have formed a bloc that seeks to counter Islamist influence in the Middle East.

One wonders how the IDF could be expected to so quickly determine the facts.

While there is no formula that will work for everyone, there are some strategies that if followed carefully and consistently can help our children – and us – gain the most from the upcoming school year.

We risk our lives to help those who do what they can to kill to our people .

Twain grasped amazingly well the pulse of the Jewish people.

The entertainment industry appears divided about the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Israelis in Gaza border communities need to get out; who will help them?

The contrast between the mentality of Israel and the mentality of Hamas was never so loudly expressed as when the Arab killers became heroes and the Jewish killers became prisoners.

There is a threat today representing a new category of missionary:They call themselves “Hayovel.”

Just as we would never grant legitimacy to ISIS, we should not grant legitimacy to Hamas.

Is Woodstock still leading the world to destruction?

More Articles from J. E. Dyer
After the 2003 invasion: digging out a MiG-25 buried in Iraq before Desert Storm. Saddam’s jet inventory suffered various similar fates.

Another nation – probably Iran, possibly Russia and/or Syria – is entering the fight in Iraq in a new and fully committed way.

ISIS leader crowing over their victory in Mosul, Iraq. Posted on June 12, 2014.

There is now NO possible explanation for not evacuating at least non-essential personnel from the U.S. embassy and consulates in Iraq.

ISIS is executing, slowly but surely, a pincer move on Baghdad.

The ISIS guerrillas are a problem for Iran. It arose because of the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war.

To investigate Holocaust denial is to enter into a sick world of darkness and brooding fury.

It would be so catastrophic to not increase the debt ceiling that Senators must have the option of avoiding the people’s scrutiny.

Iran could produce enough high-enriched uranium (HEU) for a first nuclear warhead in as little as two weeks.

We are in uncharted territory today. The answers for the GOP going forward may not be found in the events of the past.

    Latest Poll

    Do you think the FAA ban on US flights to Israel is political?






    View Results

    Loading ... Loading ...

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/j-e-dyer/j-e-dyer-tumultus-post-americanus/2012/07/10/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: