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Originally published at Rubin Reports.

Why might Syria or Iran attack Israel? Obviously that is impossible to predict, but here is an indication.

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The traditional pattern has been that Israel is attacked when the perpetrator wants to mobilize international Arab support. The idea is that Arabs, no matter what their citizenship, would cheer the assault. Indeed, even Persians, Turks, and others would do so. And hence lies international political profit. This was originally illustrated by Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt in the 1950s and has been shown many times since.

But not always. It has failed many times, increasingly in recent years, for example, with Syria in the 1982 Lebanon war or in Iraq in the 1991 Kuwait war. Then again, it has also yielded no real material help. The Israel card has just not worked any more in Middle Eastern policies .

This is, of course, mainly true for strategic direct attacks, not those shadowy terrorist groups, but that limits attacks as well. And now Hezbollah, an open ally of Syria, has come out as a strategic factor, a semi-state actor no longer covered by its historic designation. Hezbollah d0es not want to set off a Hezbollah-Israel war when it is already under intensive criticism and military pressure because of fighting in an anti-Sunni war killing that community’s people in Syria.

Some reasons are that while aggressive Arab states or Iran–as well as radical Islamism–have increasingly threatened Arab states and populations, this set up a cross-cutting factor. It was far from the only issue. Admit it or not, there were far more considerations at play.

Now what would the Syrian side gain for targeting Israel? No Sunni Muslim will leap to the defense of the Bashar al-Assad or the Iranian region as a result! The Israel card is useless, and everyone in the region knows this.

So why do these threats endure? Simple. To scare the West or Israel so as to intimidate them into doing what the aggressors want them to do, a bogey-man.

The Iranians won’t attack Israel because it would be so difficult for them to do, and it would unleash a full-scale confrontation with the Unites States that will gain them nothing. The same is true for Syria,which would guarantee to make the United States seek regime change in Damascus and make it far harder to win the civil war. The most likely attack would be by Hezbollah with rockets.

And thus, it may contribute to a state or regime’s defensive strategy so it can go on, so to speak, committing aggression in peace.

Of course if the bluff is called and if the aggressor added onto the attack, it would achieve far more damage to the attacker with no real benefit. Will such an operation contribute to Assad winning the civil war or surviving? Of course not.

So these threats should be laughed at–no matter that the threats must be prepared for carefully–and the response would be: You and what army?

But one can also ask this: In the face of such bumbling American behavior, what possible credibility can be put on Obama Administration guarantees to Israel? Remember that the side Obama supports includes al-Qaida which is firing rockets into Israel even as America ponders an attack on the Syrian regime! For the first time, America is objectively a co-belligerent with a force actively attacking Israel!

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10 COMMENTS

  1. U people cannot keep blaming Obama for everything. Blame your own party for wasting time and money spreading misinformation ( a fancy word for LIE) about him, you spend time and money keeping everything little thing he’s trying to do to help people you lock it dead lock it or vote it down it’s YOUR party that has ruined the world NOT obama. I mean come on, one man cannot be accountable for everything you claim! It’s YOUR PARTY the republiKKKans. Oy vey.

  2. U people cannot keep blaming Obama for everything. Blame your own party for wasting time and money spreading misinformation ( a fancy word for LIE) about him, you spend time and money keeping everything little thing he’s trying to do to help people you lock it dead lock it or vote it down it’s YOUR party that has ruined the world NOT obama. I mean come on, one man cannot be accountable for everything you claim! It’s YOUR PARTY the republiKKKans. Oy vey.

  3. Given this assessment from a Jewish perspective, and in a biblical point of view I think everything that blocks the way for peace in Israel as to the establishment of the soon Temple will be dealt with. God is working salvation in the midst of the earth. Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal must be destroyed. Syria will become a ruinous heap. There is not even mention of the nation Syria in Ezekiel 38 and 39.

  4. Given this assessment from a Jewish perspective, and in a biblical point of view I think everything that blocks the way for peace in Israel as to the establishment of the soon Temple will be dealt with. God is working salvation in the midst of the earth. Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal must be destroyed. Syria will become a ruinous heap. There is not even mention of the nation Syria in Ezekiel 38 and 39.

  5. Given this assessment from a Jewish perspective, and in a biblical point of view I think everything that blocks the way for peace in Israel as to the establishment of the soon Temple will be dealt with. God is working salvation in the midst of the earth. Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal must be destroyed. Syria will become a ruinous heap. There is not even mention of the nation Syria in Ezekiel 38 and 39.

  6. But one can also ask this: In the face of such bumbling American behavior, what possible credibility can be put on Obama Administration guarantees to Israel? Remember that the side Obama supports includes al-Qaida which is firing rockets into Israel even as America ponders an attack on the Syrian regime! For the first time, America is objectively a co-belligerent with a force actively attacking Israel!

    Read more at: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/rubin-reports/so-youre-going-to-attack-israel-with-chemical-weapons/2013/09/02/?src=ataglance.

  7. Read an account of an ancient king of Israel who was going to be attacked by 3 enemies, Assyria and 2 others. The King called the Prophet and the people fasted and prayed. The Prophet inquired of Jehovah and the people were told to go to a high mountain and see JHWH’s deliverance. Long story short, the Israelis watched while the 3 enemies destroyed each other. The Israelis walked down, picked up the silver, gold and all ‘spoils’ and went home. Never an arrow shot. G-d promised to defend HIS LAND in spite of the peoples disobedience and worship of idols because HE will keep His promise to Abraham, Issac and Jacob to 1000 generations. Happy Rosh aShanah 5774 all!

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