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January 23, 2017 / 25 Tevet, 5777
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The Neo-Mandate Solution to the Arab-Israeli Conflict

The Obama Administration plan is very simple, assuming that everything goes smoothly–which of course it will not.

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In Nov., 1947, British withdrawal from Palestine began. Now America is proposing taking over supervising the Jewish-Arab peace. Good luck!

Originally published at Rubin Reports.

War without end. That is what the Obama Administration promises the U.S., Israel, and the Palestinians. If the current Obama-Kerry plan for an Israel-Palestinian deal is implemented, scores of Americans would likely die. This was revealed recently by Secretary of State John Kerry, particularly in a speech at the Saban Forum.

By the way, the Saban Forum Speech was made appropriately on December 7th, the anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The former head of the Saban Center has also been chosen as negotiator.

The Obama Administration plan is very simple, assuming that everything goes smoothly–which of course it will not.

According to the plan, the United States would gradually create and maintain the agreement by policing an independent Palestinian state. Israel would be protected by the U.S. forces, and Palestine would be protected from Israel by them. And that’s part of the problem, because the Palestinians would stage a huge number of protests against and complaints regarding Israel’s actions, likely demanding more concessions.

In addition, the Palestinians, particularly Hamas, would see the new Palestinian state as perpetually victimized. They would mobilize any Arab forces they could to back their complaints. It would be a nightmare. But what the wrong-headed people in the Obama Administration do not understand is that they would be under constant challenge. They do not understand that no matter what they say, Hamas, Fatah, Iran, Syria, al-Qa’ida, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Salafists –and most likely Saudi Arabia–will never accept an Israeli state.

In other words, if Americans are on the ground, they will be targeted. Now the question is what will they do? Will they “protect” Israel? And what is the definition of protecting Israel? If Palestinians ignore that they are attackers, then it is a controversy. Israel does not deserve “protection.” And what about gaps in this protection or disagreement among the observers?

In his Saban speech, Kerry said, “…Our commitment to Israel’s security spurred the U.S.-Israeli development of ballistic missile defense technologies to keep Israelis safe from rockets and missiles. Those systems and newer technologies continue to protect Israelis from the range of threats that they still face today.”

What about a large stream of cross-border attacks? Will Americans attack Palestinians if they violate the agreement? May I point out that at various times Iraqi, Hamas, and Hizballah rockets have landed on Israel with no U.S. defensive action. Again, the most important point is not Iranian nuclear weapons but routine policing of a Palestinian state, not to mention Israel’s Lebanon-Syria border.

Are we to believe that American helicopters, airplanes, and ground soldiers would attack when the whole effort of this exercise had been to avoid military commitments? How many years would this neo-mandate continue? Will the United States intimidate certain countries if necessary? Remember that the United States didn’t even support the military government in Egypt. So will it defend Egypt in the Sinai, which is in cooperation with Israel?

The United States may suffer a great number of casualties over time. Note the 3,400 deaths of Western coalition soldiers in Afghanistan so far. Are Western forces willing to sacrifice more than 300 soldiers a year? In 2010, IED attacks in Afghanistan wounded 3,366 U.S. soldiers. And that was in just one year of the war. And of course Americans are going to accidently kill Palestinians, both fighters and unarmed civilians. As of February 2013, between 17,000 and 19,000 civilians died in Afghanistan. This then would create a blood-feud. And by the way, many of these people will blame Israel.

Think along the lines of Afghanistan. The U.S. has informed President Karzai that it is withdrawing its forces. Karzai is not happy with that, and he wants to reject the deal. Again, can Israel rely on American defense even if it accepts it?

Recently, the United States has betrayed the following countries; Egypt (wanting to support a Muslim Brotherhood government); Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey (supporting their side in the Syrian civil war). And it has left a mess in Iraq. Do you think at this moment Israel is going to trust the United States at the peak of distrust in modern times? Consider this too, what will happen when the U.S. soldiers come back in body bags? How long will the U.S. commitment last before dumping an independent Palestinian State on Israel? How long will the American people accept photos of dead Palestinians, much less dead Israelis?

Remember clearly that there will be Turks, Iranians, Arabs, Islamists, and Palestinians who will not to accept the solution or who will continue fighting. And sooner or later, the United States would leave the new state and leave Israel with a mess.

Since this will cost a great number of American fatalities; money, conflicts of agreement, interpretation, and prestige in the Middle-East; and constant American interventions, such a solution will not work. I cannot conceive that people do not look forward in this way and rather seem to be guided by wishful thinking that the conflict will end suddenly.

It is no accident that Israel has never been willing to trust its security to a third party. This is a roadmap for increased conflict.

For example, is the U.S. air force going to bomb a building in Gaza that is an open headquarter for Gaza rocket and terrorist attacks? Will it aggressively go after foreign fighters, even if those foreign fighters have attacked Americans? Will it send them to Guantanamo Bay? Will it respond to criticism in the UN? May I point out that U.S. counterterrorism policy has not been very aggressive of late.

Think about Benghazi.

The United States will then have two choices:

1. The U.S. helps Israel, albeit with constant opposition, and alienates the Arab and Iranian and Turkish world.

2. The United States will gradually get tired of the burden and walk away from it.

In other words, Israel would not benefit from what can only be called “ObamaStrategicCare.”
If you like it, no matter what you’ve heard, you can keep your strategic patron or plan, you can keep your ally (Obama), and you’ll save money. No one will be able to take that away from you.

Barry Rubin

About the Author: Professor Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. See the GLORIA/MERIA site at www.gloria-center.org.

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  1. Anonymous says:

    Kerry and Obama want IIsrael to be an American protectorate, which it will be unless leadership freezes these talks now. The talks have nothing in them for Israel's benefit, it is all stacked against her interests. The hits have been great, the EU Directive, and Horizon 20-20, where Bibi had to gravel to be admitted (recognition of the BDS campaign coming down the pipeline). Then there was the Geneva convention, the vote of the P-5 plus 1, and the news leaks about Valerie Jarret and her secret Iranian talks last year, all this and more lead to the assumption that Israel has a whole new relationship with the US under Obama- Israel is the bad guy, and America is the good guy, come to save the poor Palestinians. Thus, Obama's wish is to coerce through threats Israel into submission. The newly passed EU Directive is meant to cripple Israel in the end and the US went along with it, mums the word. Everything is being done by the West to set Israel up for the fall. The latest Iranian victory has empowered her, to her people, and the world. Countries are lining up to do business with her. More money for her to build her conventional weapons arsenal and a delivery system for her nuke warheads. So thanks to the West and erroneous judgement, Iranian power has been effectively projected into the region, sanctions lifted and the plutonium enrichment goes on.. Again, all of this is done with Israel in mind, in that she will be put into a n existentially dangerous position. Israel must hunker down with its best minds now, and seek the opinion of its most wise and moral Jews. We have no where to turn but inwards. Maybe that is how it is supposed to be. Am Yisrael Chai, Dvorah bee, Irvine.

  2. Anonymous says:

    First and foremost, FREEZE these talks. There are diplomatic measures that could be taken right now, to throw a monkey wrench into the juggernaut coming straight at us. Why have I not seen any of them employed. We have lost the diplomatic war – time to fight back, sink or swim. Doing nothing is not a strategy, nor is trying to time these Arabs out. there are too many of them

  3. Anonymous says:

    Of course Israel cannot depend on the US, with Obama at the helm. They could back down, like in Afghanistan and Iraq, during Gulf War, or it could use its own forces to back the PA. God forbid, if that happened, we would see the most bitter fighting ever.

  4. Stop all Israel-Palestiniab negotiations, Israel has to strike Judea, Samaria and Gaza for his own security and send out all the arabs, like the Syrians are doing with their own people, that is th Midle East law.

  5. Option 2 is the most likely since after the last couple conflicts, not many US politicians will support action in Israel (at least as long as casualties occur). That's alright though, because nobody's tougher than Israel when cornered. It's important not to draw all the neighbors into the fight unless it's possible to defend the homeland while crippling their ability and will to fight at home…shouldn't be too hard to do, wink wink…sherman…temujin…do not salt the fields though…never salt the fields…we can turn the water back on, but getting the salt out of the soil is not easy…

  6. Anonymous says:

    NEVER have the Arabs had legal rights to the land in question. Any respecting Jew and Jewess understands that it is far worse to suffer loss of our national pride, through humiliation by the enemy, because for that sin, of self abasement, or self hatred, we shall surely suffer a thousand deaths. Better to die fighting evil than to live under it.

  7. In my opinion it doesn't really matter what America does or any other country for that matter. Israel will not cease to exist as a nation, that much is certain. Period.

  8. In my opinion it doesn't really matter what America does or any other country for that matter. Israel will not cease to exist as a nation, that much is certain. Period.

  9. While the US makes a deal with Iran, we see that Iran is still in hot pursuit of learning how to make ICBM's. Recently they launched another monkey out to about 75 Kilometers. We sit by and watch and fantasize that even though Iran is working hard in every area of science which would be used to make a nuclear ICBM; that somehow that's all just circumstantial and they in fact really are not. I'd love to hear Kerry's plan of action should he be proven wrong, "which he will". This land has been given to Israel forever by God. It is completely absurd to witness the whole world trying to give it away. When a peace like that IS made it won’t last as it won’t be a true peace and try’s to steal God’s land. The US desire to collaborate with Israel to verify that Iran is living up to it’s nuclear agreements would be the equivalent of Israel going along with the west’s fantasy that Iran is much farther behind than it is in it’s nuclear pursuits. The US proposal to patrol the west bank is also not a solid Idea as no one but the US will respect it; making the US a combatant rather than a peace broker. I believe that these types of decisions are likely going to lead to the war spoken of in Isaiah 17 or possibly another conflict, and a one world government will be set up eventually due in part to the demand for peace and economic concerns after it’s finish. An agreement with Israel and the Arabs will be made and will start the 7 year tribulation period. Three 1/2 years into the tribulation period Russia and an Iranian lead Muslim confederacy will invade Israel and reach down to Egypt but will be defeated by the west. China in recent years has become more determined to set up a hegemony of sorts in Asia and the Pacific. Now they have expanded their “air defense identification zone” to enforce their claims on the Islands they “currently” say are theirs. Rev 9:16 and Rev 16:12 states that the nations of the east will invade and have an army of 200 million men. The forces of the west under the anti-Christ will then fight against the kings of the east in the valley of Armageddon. China looks now to be the leader of that eastern coalition. I wrote a small 6 or 7 page book that talks about what I believe the Bible states will take place soon as well as the potential trends I see at this time. I don’t accept donations and it’s free. It’s a short read. I encourage you to have a look: http://www.booksie.com/religion_and_spirituality/book/richard_b_barnes/after-the-rapture-whats-next

  10. Wayne Addair says:

    How can Israel trust the US? The present administration will not protect their own military personnel, their covert personnel or their ambassadors. How can they protect Israel's border when Obama refuses to protect the US borders? Lastly, how can any country or person trust one word out of Obama's mouth?
    Also, Israel has the full protection of the greatest power available, period.

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