Arab allies 2011: Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Egypt wanted to help against Iran and Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood.
Arab allies 2012: Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, Syria, Tunisia, Libya, etc. Will get along with Saudis if give money and don’t interfere.
Israel 2011: Dislikes but understands shares common interests in battling Islamists of both Brotherhood-Hamas and Iran-Syria varieties as well as al-Qaida. Keep Hamas under control to avoid war and violence along border.
Israel 2012: Wipe off map possibly including war but certainly subversion and terrorism can be used against it; all Islamist and Arab forces should be mobilized; and any negotiated solution blocked.
Overall posture 2011: Minimize Egypt’s role in regional affairs to be left alone and focus on survival and development.
Overall posture 2012: Maximize Egypt’s internal transformation into an Islamist state and change of all institutions including army. Take leadership over Gaza. Tunisia. If possible Libya, be senior partner to Syria Islamist regime. Brush aside Turkish influence. Minimize Iranian influence in Arab and Sunni spheres.
U.S. 2011: Though will use anti-American demagoguery periodically, the alliance with America is important as source of military, economic, and strategic support. They have common friends, enemies, and common goals, seek regional stability and defeat of radical forces.
U.S. 2012: Get along with U.S. if low cost and can get aid easily but don’t let Washington get away with interfering with regime goals. Reduce U.S. influence in Egypt and demonize those friendly to America. Undercut U.S.-Israel cooperation. Subvert remaining U.S. ales. Defy U.S. on Gaza.
About the Author: Professor Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. See the GLORIA/MERIA site at www.gloria-center.org.
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