· Lackey intelligence services: “The security forces of a nation need to develop a culture that demonstrates commitment to a nation rather than a ruling party.”
Sisi is likely to work towards a heavily conditional form of democracy, at once safe for Islam and from Islam. |
· U.S. support for undeserving regimes: In pursuit of its interests, “America has supported non-democratic regimes and some regimes that were not well respected in the Middle East. Examples include Gulf State regimes, Saudi Arabia, the early Saddam regime, Morocco, Algeria, etc.” (One imagines Sisi listing Egypt in a first draft, then—for caution’s sake—removing it.)
In addition to showing the courage to criticize his tyrant-boss, if only in an academic term paper, these perceptive comments indicate President Sisi’s own deepest aspirations for Egypt—as well as what was not on his mind, such as reducing the Islamist threat or the role of the military in Egypt’s economy
Conclusion
The pre-political brigadier-general of 2006 anticipated the somewhat contradictory chief of staff, defense minister, and president. Sisi is a pious Muslim ambivalent about Islamists; a fan of the caliphate in theory who rejects it in practice; a critic of Mubarak’s who permitted the revival of his political party[10]; a fan of democracy who “wins” 97 percent of the vote;[11] a military officer theorizing on forms of democracy; a fan of independent media who allows journalists to be convicted of terrorism charges[12]; a critic of tyranny who encourages adulation of himself.[13]
Sisi, clearly, remains a work in progress, a 59-year-old still trying to discover who he is and what he thinks even as he rules a country of eighty-six million. On-the-job training is literal in his case. Amid the political brush fires and exigencies of present-day Egypt, the gist of his 8-year old ideas are likely to emerge as dominant: a heavily conditional form of democracy, at once safe for Islam and from Islam; experiments to loosen controls over the intelligence services, the economy, education, and the media; varying tactics toward Islamists, as well as a revived attempt to make the region of the Middle East a world power.
But will he have the time and opportunity to achieve these many goals? Unless he shows a hitherto-unseen competence,[14] his chances are slim.
Outside powers can help by cooperating with Sisi on immediate concerns—arms, counterterrorism, and intelligence—and pressuring him on longer-term issues—military business operations, the rule of law, and human rights.
Daniel Pipes is president of the Middle East Forum (DanielPipes.org).
[1] Al-Ahram (Cairo), June 12, 2014.
[2] Carlisle, Pa.: U.S. War College, Mar. 15, 2006.
[3] English edited for clarity.
[4] Daniel Pipes, “Fixing Egypt’s Economy: No More Military Macaroni,” July 30, 2013.
[5] The Daily News (Cairo), June 25, 2014.
[6] Daniel Pipes, “The Middle Eastern Cold War,” The Jerusalem Post, June 17, 2009.
[7] Daniel Pipes, “Anarchy, The New Threat,” The National Review Online, Jan. 28, 2012, updated Nov. 28, 2013.
[8] Heba Saleh, “General Sisi: Out to Rout the Muslim Brothers,” The Financial Times, Aug. 23, 2013.
[9] Iraqi News Agency (Baghdad), July 7, 2014.
[10] The Washington Post, July 14, 2014.
[11] The New York Times, June 4, 2014; Eric Bjornlund, Eric Trager, and Michele Dunne, “Toward the Sisi Era: A New Page in U.S.-Egypt Relations?” PolicyWatch 2264, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, D.C., June 6, 2014.
[12] Los Angeles Times, June 24, 2014.
[13] The Guardian (London), Oct. 20, 2013.
[14] Lee Smith, “Egypt Is on the Brink of Chaos. Here’s Why It Should Matter to Washington,” Tablet Magazine (New York), Apr. 2, 2014.