web analytics
October 1, 2014 / 7 Tishri, 5775
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
Meir Panim with Soldiers 5774 Roundup: Year of Relief and Service for Israel’s Needy

Meir Panim implements programs that serve Israel’s neediest populations with respect and dignity. Meir Panim also coordinated care packages for families in the South during the Gaza War.



What if a Rational Iran Says, “Yes”?

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz visited the Golani brigade with Israeli president Shimon Peres.

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz visited the Golani brigade with Israeli president Shimon Peres.
Photo Credit: Moshe Milner/GPO/Flash90

LTG Benny Ganz, Israel’s Chief of Staff, turned heads when he told the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz that the Iranians are rational and, in his view, have not taken a decision about moving from nuclear capability to nuclear weapons. The second is supposed to prove the first.

If rational means having an appreciation for the consequences of actions and an ability to take steps to reach a desired end, the Iranians are rational. It bears noting that the “end” may not be using, or even having, nuclear weapons. Perhaps the goal is keeping the “international community” (represented by the P5+1) focused on nuclear-activity-short-of-weapon-making while the regime further entrenches itself at home, harasses the West, and pursues its ultimate goal of transnational Shiite expansion.

The rational position for Iran would be to encourage the world to focus on whether or not it might do something now or later, rather than on what it is actually doing now – which, to the shame and the detriment of the West, indeed looks like Iranian policy.

Iran continues to oppress its own people – including 676 executions in 2011, a 10-year-high with many of them performed in public. Iran is engaged in the illegal export of weapons [see here, here, here]. It provides arms, money and advisors to Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah; exports arms to Africa; and has a hand in the Bahrain uprisings. Iran is heavily engaged in South America, particularly in Venezuela, but also across the continent in various political, military and economic endeavors. It supports the Taliban in Afghanistan and steals oil from Iraqi oil fields.

Israel believes Iran is producing long-range missiles that can strike the West, and India reports that Iran is producing short-range anti-ship missiles.

At so many levels, Iran is a problem for and a threat to the West, its interests and its allies. Yet the focus is almost entirely on the terms of uranium enrichment and whether Iran has made a decision to build nuclear weapons. A second, Western, focus consists of arguing with Russia and China over the proper level of concern about Iran’s nuclear program. A third Western preoccupation is keeping Israel out of the conversation.

So consider what would happen if Iran actually said it agreed to the P5+1 terms on its nuclear program. Take the strictest version of the possible terms: closing the Fordow plant, halting enrichment at higher levels, moving enriched uranium out of the country, permitting unfettered inspections by the IAEA. Add your own.

Three things you know:

  • Iran will require an exchange of terms
  • Iran will either comply with its commitments or not; and
  • the larger picture will deteriorate.

Nothing is free – Iran will have demands including the end of sanctions and international isolation. Not immediately, of course, or even quickly, but sanctions would be lifted. Iran was circumventing them anyhow, but the ability legally to purchase currently restricted technologies would speed the upgrade of Iran’s arms industry. The end of banking sanctions and the oil embargo would allow the treasury to finance Iran’s interests at home and abroad. Iran wins.

The likelihood of Iran complying with its commitments is minimal. But there would be hundreds if not thousands of hours, days and weeks of new negotiations over whether and how the agreement is holding up. Once a deal is struck, the Western powers will be loath to cancel it, even when they know Iran is cheating. If the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process” is any guide (and it is) the P5+1 will try almost anything (modifying the terms, bribing the recalcitrant party, denouncing anyone who points out evidence of cheating) to avoid admitting that it was snookered. Iran wins.

If the West takes no action on the other Iranian activities, but allows the regime to reclaim its place in the family of respectable nations, each Iranian target will remain a target: dissident Iranians, Sunnis including the Saudis, European capitals, Americans and American interests, Western-oriented South Americans, Israel and Jews. Russia and China will support Iran with no concern for American disapproval. Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria (unless we act quickly), Venezuela and Nicaragua will have their patron intact. Iran wins.

The whole thing is so rational as to make you wonder why Gen. Ganz’s words caused such an uproar.

Originally published by Gatestone Institute http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org

About the Author: Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center. She was previously Senior Director of JINSA and author of JINSA Reports form 1995-2011.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “What if a Rational Iran Says, “Yes”?”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
Jews Against Genocide mimicked and blasphemed the ALS Ice Bucket  Challenge with their anti-Israel "Blood Bucket Challenge."
‘Jews Against Genocide’ Take ‘Blood Bucket Challenge’ at Yad Vashem [video]
Latest Indepth Stories
terrorists

Is the global community clear in its response to these extremist groups?

obama

Like our fabled character, Don Quixote, President Obama has constantly spawned his own reality.

Ayatollah Hossein-Kazamani Boroujerdi, in better times (left) and in his prison cell (right).

Boroujerdi was informed that “the pressures and tortures will increase until he has been destroyed.”

Senior Hamas and Fatah leaders in Gaza City on April 22. Hamas and Fatah signed a deal to establish a unity government, but since then little progress has been made.

Fatah: Hamas stole relief aid for Gaza and distributed it amongst its followers in mosques.

Can teenagers seriously be expected to behave properly when they are surrounded by so much suggestive material? Is it fair to expose them (and ourselves) to so much temptation and then tell them, “Just say no”?

Washington remains ignorant of the need to dismantle alliances with various Muslim countries.

Defeating IS requires bombing its strongholds and recognizing the violent nature of Islam.

Abbas again used the UN to attack Israel, distort history, and undermine prospects for peace.

Israel and the Palestinian Authority cannot even agree to move their clocks back on the same day.

Shemita is about relating to each other by temporarily eliminating gaps of wealth power & status

David transcended adversity to become a leader; Who are we to make excuses for a lack of greatness?

sympathy: Feeling sorrow or pity for another’s tribulations; Empathy:sharing an emotional experience

Last week the president announced a four-point plan. Unfortunately, there’s little buy-in from our European and Middle Eastern allies. Here’s my own four-point plan that may be more palatable to our allies.

Rosh Hashanah has an obvious connection to God’s Kingship. We constantly refer to Him during the Asseres Yemei Teshuvah as Melech/King. The nusach of the tefillah, referring to Rosh Hashanah as “a remembrance of the first day” (of Creation), implies a certain dimension of divine kingship operating at the time of Creation and replicated every […]

Yes, God judges, but His judgment is that of a loving father who longs for his child’s quick return.

Anti-Semitism has returned to the mainstream of European society and Israel has become its focus.

More Articles from Shoshana Bryen
Gaza

Proportionality Doctrine:The greater the military gain the greater the justifiable collateral damage

International Security Assistance Force Commander Gen. John R. Allen.

It appears not to have occurred to Condoleezza Rice that Palestinian statehood was incompatible with Israeli security.

The 686 men who expressed their desire to run in Iran’s presidential election were whittled down to 8.

Does Kerry think it would be better for Israel to approach negotiations from a position of precarious poverty?

Neither Secretary of State Kerry nor the president he serves seem to understand Russia’s goals in the Middle East.

The fourth Great War is less ‘Islam against the West’ than it is Sunni expansionists vs. Shiite expansionists.

This is the functional equivalent of agreeing not to swing the wrecking ball after you’ve set the house on fire.

President Obama, perhaps inadvertently, made the case for U.S.-Israel relations grounded in the most fundamental shared values.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/analysis/what-if-a-rational-iran-says-yes/2012/05/03/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: