web analytics
October 21, 2014 / 27 Tishri, 5775
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
Meir Panim with Soldiers 5774 Roundup: Year of Relief and Service for Israel’s Needy

Meir Panim implements programs that serve Israel’s neediest populations with respect and dignity. Meir Panim also coordinated care packages for families in the South during the Gaza War.



Still Following The “Road Map” To Chaos: “Palestine,” Terror And Regional Nuclear War


Beres-Louis-Rene

            President Obama, imprisoned by clichés, still seeks to follow the so-called “Road Map” to Middle East peace. At the core of this fictionalized cartography is a deceptively pleasing image of two states, one Arab, the other Jewish, living gently side-by-side. In reality, the birth of “Palestine” would signal the unambiguous beginning of a “One State Solution.”

 

            For any Palestinian state to be born, a gravedigger would have to wield the forceps. Still, if Mr. Obama has his way, a new state of “Palestine” will be unceremoniously carved out of the still-living body of Israel.  Openly and unhesitatingly, this 23rd Arab state would quickly seek extension, in unopposed and audacious increments, beyond the West Bank (Judea/Samaria) and deep into the “green line” boundaries of Israel proper.

 

            This is not a controversial scenario. Even the official Palestine Authority (PA) map of  “moderate” Fatah now shows all of Israel as part of Palestine. Moreover, leaving no doubt about its regional plans, the United States is now accelerating military training of “Palestinian security forces,” that is, of future anti-American terrorists.

 

            Any Palestinian state would have an injurious impact on American strategic interests and on Israel’s essential survival options. Even in the absence of another regional Arab terror state, Israel’s basic security would require extreme self-reliance in existential military matters.  In turn, such self-reliance would demand: (1) a comprehensive nuclear strategy involving deterrence, preemption and war fighting capabilities; and (2) a corollary and interpenetrating conventional war strategy.

 

             The birth of “Palestine” would affect these two core strategies in several ways. It would enlarge Israel’s need for what military strategists call “escalation dominance.” As any Palestinian state would immediately make Israel’s conventional capabilities more problematic, the IDF command authority in Tel Aviv would probably decide to make the country’s nuclear deterrent less ambiguous.

 

            Taking the Israeli bomb out of the “basement” might actually enhance Israel’s security for a while, but, over time, ending “deliberate ambiguity” could also heighten the odds of nuclear weapons use. And if Iran is allowed to “go nuclear,” such nuclear violence might not be limited to the immediate area of Israel and “Palestine.” It could take the form of a genuine nuclear exchange. All of this, of course, would also have an immense security impact on the United States.

 

            Nuclear war could arrive in Israel not only as a “bolt-from-the-blue” surprise missile attack, but also as a result, intended or inadvertent, of escalation.  If an enemy state were to begin “only” conventional and/or biological attacks upon Israel, Jerusalem might respond, sooner or later, with fully nuclear reprisals.  If this enemy state were to begin with solely conventional attacks upon Israel, Jerusalem’s conventional reprisals might still be met, in the future, with enemy nuclear counter strikes.

 

            For now, this would become possible only if a still-nuclearizing Iran were spared any forms of Israeli or American preemptive attack. It follows that a persuasive Israeli conventional deterrent, to the extent that it could prevent enemy state conventional and/or biological attacks in the first place, would reduce Israel’s risk of escalatory exposure to nuclear war.

 

             Why should Israel need a conventional deterrent at all?  Even after “Palestine,” wouldn’t rational enemy states desist from launching conventional and/or biological attacks upon Israel for fear of an Israeli nuclear retaliation?   Not necessarily. Aware that Israel would cross the nuclear threshold only in extraordinary circumstances, these enemy states could be convinced, rightly or wrongly, that so long as their attacks remained non-nuclear, Israel would only respond in kind.

 

            After creation of “Palestine,” the resultant correlation of forces in the region would be far less favorable to Israel. The only credible way for Israel to deter large-scale conventional attacks after any such creation would be by maintaining visible and large-scale conventional capabilities.  Naturally, enemy states contemplating first-strike attacks upon Israel using chemical and/or biological weapons are apt to take more seriously Israel’s nuclear deterrent. Whether or not this nuclear deterrent had remained undisclosed could affect Israel’s credibility.

 

             A strong conventional capability is always needed by Israel to deter or to preempt conventional attacks  - attacks that could lead quickly via escalation to assorted forms of unconventional war.  Here, President Obama’s “Road Map”- related expectations would critically impair Israel’s strategic depth, and consequently, if recognized by enemy states, Israel’s capacity to wage conventional warfare.  These points should soon be understood in Washington as well as in Jerusalem, not only for Israel’s sake, but also because a Palestinian state would be plainly hospitable to far-reaching al-Qaeda preparations for anti-American terror. Creating “Palestine” would pose grave hazards for citizens of New York, Chicago and Washington as well as Haifa, Hadera and Tel-Aviv.

 

             The probable consequences of a regional nuclear war or even a chemical/biological war in the Middle East could be calamitous for the victor as well as the vanquished. In such exceptional conditions of belligerency, which would impact the United States in very tangible ways, notions of “victory” and “defeat” would lose all usual meanings. While a real risk of regional nuclear war exists independently of any Palestinian state, this risk would be much greater if the “Road Map” is followed to its promised destination.

 

LOUIS RENÉ BERES (Ph.D., Princeton, 1971) lectures and publishes widely on Israeli security matters.  He is the author of ten major books and several hundred journal articles on international relations and international law. The chair of “Project Daniel,” Professor Beres was born in Zurich, Switzerland, on August 31, 1945.

About the Author: Louis René Beres, strategic and military affairs columnist for The Jewish Press, is professor of Political Science at Purdue University. Educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971), he lectures and publishes widely on international relations and international law and is the author of ten major books in the field. In Israel, Professor Beres was chair of Project Daniel.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “Still Following The “Road Map” To Chaos: “Palestine,” Terror And Regional Nuclear War”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at a government meeting.
Proposed Conversion Bill, Change in Local Rabbinate Power Nixed by Netanyahu
Latest Indepth Stories
Map of Syria-Turkish border area, pinpointing Kurdish border town of Kobani, just taken by ISIS terror forces Oct 7, 2014.

Turkey and Iran the 2 regional powers surrounding the ISIS conflict gain from a partial ISIS victory

The Rosenstrasse area of Berlin, where Jewish husbands of non-Jewish German wives were held.

Emigration from Israel is at an all-time low, far lower than immigration to Israel from Europe.

NY rally against Met Opera's 'Death of Klinghoffer' opera. Sept. 22, 2014.

Leon Klinghoffer’s daughters: “‘Klinghoffer’ is justified as ‘a work of art’…This is an outrage.”

Guess who's behind the door?

Do you seriously think that as you kidnap our children we should medically treat and help yours?

Sometimes collective action against the heinous acts of the majority is not enough. The world should not only support the blockade of Gaza; it must enforce the dismantling of Hamas.

The Arab Spring has challenged Jordan with the task of gradual reform with regard to its monarchy.

Israel offered Syria the entire Golan Heights, only to find that the Syrians were demanding MORE!

Israeli hasbara too can be described at best as pathetic, at worst non existent.

A ‘good news’ story from the Nepal avalanche disaster to warm your heart. Take out your Kleenex.

Journalists see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as morality play: Israel=evil; Palestine=innocent

Warsaw Ghetto: At its height, the Nazis walled in some 500,000 Jews within the1.3 square mile area.

While police officers face dangers every day on the job, Jews also face danger in their daily lives.

Carter developed a fondness for Arafat believing “they were both ordained to be peacemakers by God”

If Hamas is ISIS, the world asks, why didn’t Israel destroy it given justification and opportunity?

That key is the disarming of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza – as the U.S., EU, and others agreed to in principle at the end of Operation Protective Edge.

We have no doubt there are those who deeply desire to present themselves as being of a gender that is not consistent with their anatomy, and we take no joy in the pain and embarrassment they suffer.

More Articles from Louis Rene Beres
Louis Rene Beres

President Obama’s core argument on a Middle East peace process is still founded on incorrect assumptions.

Louis Rene Beres

Once upon a time in America, every adult could recite at least some Spenglerian theory of decline.

President Obama’s core argument is still founded on incorrect assumptions.

Specific strategic lessons from the Bar Kokhba rebellion.

Still facing an effectively unhindered nuclear threat from Iran, Israel will soon need to choose between two strategic options.

For states, as for individuals, fear and reality go together naturally.

So much of the struggle between Israel and the Arabs continues to concern space.

An undifferentiated or across-the-board commitment to nuclear ambiguity could prove harmful to Israel’s’s overall security.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/columns/louis-bene-beres/still-following-the-road-map-to-chaos-palestine-terror-and-regional-nuclear-war/2010/02/24/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: