web analytics
September 18, 2014 / 23 Elul, 5774
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
Apartment 758x530 Africa-Israel at the Israel Real Estate Exhibition in New York

Africa Israel Residences, part of the Africa Israel Investments Group led by international businessman Lev Leviev, will present 7 leading projects on the The Israel Real Estate Exhibition in New York on Sep 14-15, 2014.



The Investor’s Guide To Israel’s Political Market (Part I)

Feiglin-Moshe

The Ashkenazi haredi parties, just like the Arab parties, enjoy all six components and will likely maintain their current strength.

The picture is less clear for Shas. For many years Shas was overvalued due to the dominance of its leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. The rabbi’s dominance is naturally diminishing, but the party enjoys all the other components. It will not disappear, but in the future Shas will contract to its real market value. I assess that at approximately eight mandates.

It is important to remember that while the Arabs will not enter a rightist coalition, the haredim are certainly willing to enter a leftist coalition – having done so in the past.

Let us now analyze what is taking place in the relevant Left (as opposed to Meretz, the ideological Left is not confused by the facts).

The shattering of the Oslo vision has left the Israeli Left with no relevant message. When there is no message, things get out of control and the first to be affected are political parties. Their politics become personal and not ideological, tension within and between the parties grows, and break-offs and new, strange bedfellows flourish. In the past we have seen the same phenomenon on the Right, also as a result of lack of relevant vision. There have always been hatred and jealousy in the Left and Right camps. But when the passengers believe that the driver knows where he is going, they fight for a good spot behind him – and not for the driver’s seat.

The Labor Party

The Labor Party has always enjoyed all six of the components mentioned above. In addition, it is a party with history and a leadership mentality that knows how to address the entire public. For this reason, Labor will always be a leadership option. I estimate that Labor’s current market value is between 25 and 30 mandates. The party that under Ehud Barak’s leadership deteriorated to an all-time low rose again to its real value as soon as it rid itself of its problematic leader and put a young and charismatic new leader at the helm.

Shelly Yachimovich understood that she must propose a new vision to replace the shattered Oslo dream, and had the wisdom to focus on social and economic issues. However, the founding ethos in Israel was and remains security. In Israel, “It’s the security, stupid.” As long as Labor will not be able to establish a political/security alternative, it will not surpass the Likud. In addition to this basic fact, competition from Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni on the one hand and problematic primaries that put anarchistic candidates at the top of the list on the other hand have eroded Labor’s value. Today, the party’s market value is lower than its real value (17 mandates, as per the latest polls).

Yesh Atid

Clearly, Lapid’s party’s current market value (11 mandates) has nothing to do with its real value. The party lacks all of the components except #6 – a young and widely recognized leader (thanks to his media career). This party isn’t really a party; it’s a person. It is a shopping cart capitalizing on dissatisfaction and hopelessness without proposing any real alternative. Just like Kadima and Yair Lapid’s father, Tommy, this party will disappear in a short time period.

The Movement Party

Clearly, Livni’s current market value of 11 mandates has nothing to do with its real value. The party lacks all of the components except #6 – a widely recognized leader. Like Yesh Atid, the Movement isn’t really a party; it’s a person. And for the same reasons as Yesh Atid and Kadima (see above), this party will disappear in a short time period.

Likud

Except for a clear message, the Likud enjoys all of the other components that make up a real party. Like Labor, the Likud is also a ruling party. But unlike Labor, the Likud boasts a large membership that plainly reflects Israeli society as a whole. The method for internal elections in the Likud is far from perfect, and the political mechanism is problematic. Nonetheless, the party manages to faithfully express the main will of its voters and to ensure (with safe slots on the party list) a high-quality roster that authentically represents the multifaceted Israeli society.

About the Author: Moshe Feiglin is the Deputy Speaker of the Knesset and a member of Israel's Security and Defense Committee. He heads the Manhigut Yehudit ("Jewish Leadership") faction of Israel's governing Likud party. He is the founder of Manhigut Yehudit and Zo Artzeinu and the author of two books: "Where There Are No Men" and "War of Dreams." Feiglin served in the IDF as an officer in Combat Engineering and is a veteran of the Lebanon War. He lives in Ginot Shomron with his family.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “The Investor’s Guide To Israel’s Political Market (Part I)”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
The Iron Dome was called on for the first time in 2013 to intercept a missile fired by terrorists in Sinai at Eilat.
National Lawyers Guild seeks to indict Obama for helping Israel build Iron Dome
Latest Indepth Stories
ISIS-strat-3

Arab leaders who want the US to stop Islamic State are afraid of being dubbed traitors and US agents

The Iron Dome was called on for the first time in 2013 to intercept a missile fired by terrorists in Sinai at Eilat.

National Lawyers Guild:Sworn enemy of Israel & the legal arm of Palestinian terrorism since the ’70s

A little less than 10 percent of eligible Democratic voters came out on primary day, which translates into Mr. Cuomo having received the support of 6.2 percent of registered Democrats.

The reality, though, is that the Israeli “war crimes” scenario will likely be played out among highly partisan UN agencies, NGOs, and perhaps even the International Criminal Court.

Peace or the lack of it between Israel and the Palestinians matters not one whit when it comes to the long-term agenda of ISIS and other Islamists, nor does it affect any of the long-running inter-Arab conflicts and wars.

Rather than serving as a deterrent against terrorist attacks, Israel’s military strength and capabilities are instead looked at as an unfair advantage in the asymmetrical war in which it finds itself.

Sisi:”The religious nature of the Middle East creates challenges for the governing authorities.”

For too long the media and international community have been preaching that “Palestinians” bear no responsibility for the consequences of their decisions and they are passive victims of the conflict.

Iron Dome intercepted over 1,000 rockets aimed at Israel with a success rate of over 90% in 2014

We talked about the responsibility that comes with the pen, its potential to influence and inspire.

Amnesty International:The crippling of the power station was “collective punishment of Palestinians”

Originally scheduled to be held elsewhere, the hotel canceled, pressured by local missionary groups

It’s likely that some of the rebel factions, including US clients, have indeed made pacts with ISIS

More Articles from Moshe Feiglin
MK Moshe-Feiglin

We did not win the war in Gaza because we are still captive to the concept of the 2 state solution.

9/11 attack on Twin Towers: Will Obama use next week's anniversary as a platform to attack the Assad regime?

Trapped in a false notion of power, America will lose the battle in the same way Israel now loses.

Israel is our land, not theirs – Gaza included. No talk of the 2state solution; 1 state for 1 people

If this is how we play the game, we will lose. By that I mean we will lose everything.

We take US “aid” for psychological reasons-if we have an allowance, that means we have a father.

All the tactical problems have solutions. The real problem is not with the enemy; it is with us.

Why couldn’t the artillery barrage have been implemented before the soldiers went into that hell?

The Gazan octopus arm is a test case, as the rest of the arms are closely watching it.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/columns/moshe-feiglin/the-investors-guide-to-israels-political-market-part-i/2013/01/09/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: