web analytics
November 23, 2014 / 1 Kislev, 5775
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
IDC Herzliya Campus A Day on Campus

To mark IDC Herzliya’s 20th anniversary, we spent a day following Prof. Uriel Reichman, IDC’s founder and president, and Jonathan Davis, VP for External Relations, around its delightful campus.



The Investor’s Guide To Israel’s Political Market (Part I)

Feiglin-Moshe

The Ashkenazi haredi parties, just like the Arab parties, enjoy all six components and will likely maintain their current strength.

The picture is less clear for Shas. For many years Shas was overvalued due to the dominance of its leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. The rabbi’s dominance is naturally diminishing, but the party enjoys all the other components. It will not disappear, but in the future Shas will contract to its real market value. I assess that at approximately eight mandates.

It is important to remember that while the Arabs will not enter a rightist coalition, the haredim are certainly willing to enter a leftist coalition – having done so in the past.

Let us now analyze what is taking place in the relevant Left (as opposed to Meretz, the ideological Left is not confused by the facts).

The shattering of the Oslo vision has left the Israeli Left with no relevant message. When there is no message, things get out of control and the first to be affected are political parties. Their politics become personal and not ideological, tension within and between the parties grows, and break-offs and new, strange bedfellows flourish. In the past we have seen the same phenomenon on the Right, also as a result of lack of relevant vision. There have always been hatred and jealousy in the Left and Right camps. But when the passengers believe that the driver knows where he is going, they fight for a good spot behind him – and not for the driver’s seat.

The Labor Party

The Labor Party has always enjoyed all six of the components mentioned above. In addition, it is a party with history and a leadership mentality that knows how to address the entire public. For this reason, Labor will always be a leadership option. I estimate that Labor’s current market value is between 25 and 30 mandates. The party that under Ehud Barak’s leadership deteriorated to an all-time low rose again to its real value as soon as it rid itself of its problematic leader and put a young and charismatic new leader at the helm.

Shelly Yachimovich understood that she must propose a new vision to replace the shattered Oslo dream, and had the wisdom to focus on social and economic issues. However, the founding ethos in Israel was and remains security. In Israel, “It’s the security, stupid.” As long as Labor will not be able to establish a political/security alternative, it will not surpass the Likud. In addition to this basic fact, competition from Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni on the one hand and problematic primaries that put anarchistic candidates at the top of the list on the other hand have eroded Labor’s value. Today, the party’s market value is lower than its real value (17 mandates, as per the latest polls).

Yesh Atid

Clearly, Lapid’s party’s current market value (11 mandates) has nothing to do with its real value. The party lacks all of the components except #6 – a young and widely recognized leader (thanks to his media career). This party isn’t really a party; it’s a person. It is a shopping cart capitalizing on dissatisfaction and hopelessness without proposing any real alternative. Just like Kadima and Yair Lapid’s father, Tommy, this party will disappear in a short time period.

The Movement Party

Clearly, Livni’s current market value of 11 mandates has nothing to do with its real value. The party lacks all of the components except #6 – a widely recognized leader. Like Yesh Atid, the Movement isn’t really a party; it’s a person. And for the same reasons as Yesh Atid and Kadima (see above), this party will disappear in a short time period.

Likud

Except for a clear message, the Likud enjoys all of the other components that make up a real party. Like Labor, the Likud is also a ruling party. But unlike Labor, the Likud boasts a large membership that plainly reflects Israeli society as a whole. The method for internal elections in the Likud is far from perfect, and the political mechanism is problematic. Nonetheless, the party manages to faithfully express the main will of its voters and to ensure (with safe slots on the party list) a high-quality roster that authentically represents the multifaceted Israeli society.

About the Author: Moshe Feiglin is the Deputy Speaker of the Knesset and a member of Israel's Security and Defense Committee. He heads the Manhigut Yehudit ("Jewish Leadership") faction of Israel's governing Likud party. He is the founder of Manhigut Yehudit and Zo Artzeinu and the author of two books: "Where There Are No Men" and "War of Dreams." Feiglin served in the IDF as an officer in Combat Engineering and is a veteran of the Lebanon War. He lives in Ginot Shomron with his family.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “The Investor’s Guide To Israel’s Political Market (Part I)”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
US Secretary of State John Kerry with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier before P5+1 talks. Nov. 22, 2014.
BREAKING: West About to Cave on Key Iranian Demand
Latest Indepth Stories
Dalia Lemkos, HY"D Is this the image you think of when you hear the word "settler?"

The “Media” didn’t want us to know what a kind, giving, loving young woman Dalia was.

A “Palestine” could become another Lebanon, with many different factions battling for control.

Temple_Mount_aerial_from_south_tb_q010703bsr-300x225

Maimonides himself walked and prayed in the permissible areas when he visited Eretz Yisrael in 1165

voting

Having a strong community presence at the polls shows our elected officials we care about the issues

Israel’s Temple Mount policy prefers to blames the Jews-not the attackers-for the crisis.

When Islam conquered the Holy Land, it made its capital in Ramle of all places, not in Jerusalem.

I joined the large crowd but this time it was more personal; my cousin Aryeh was one of the victims.

Terrorists aren’t driven by social, economic, or other grievances, rather by a fanatical worldview.

The phrase that the “Arabs are resorting to violence” is disgraceful and blames the victim.

Tuesday, Yom Shlishi, a doubly good day in the Torah, Esav’s hands tried to silence Yaakov’s voice.

Because of the disparate nature of the perpetrators, who are also relatively young, and given the lack of more traditional targets and the reverence Palestinians have for their homes, one now hears talk of Israel returning to a policy of destroying the houses of terrorists’ families.

In any event, the Constitution gives Congress what is popularly described as the “power of the purse” – that is, the power to raise revenues through taxation and to decide how the money should be sent.

It is difficult to write about such a holy person, for I fear I will not accurately portray his greatness…

There was much to learn from Judge Kramer and the examples he set remains a source of inspiration and a resource from which to learn. He was and remains a great role model.

More Articles from Moshe Feiglin
MK Moshe-Feiglin

Israel’s Temple Mount policy prefers to blames the Jews-not the attackers-for the crisis.

MK Moshe-Feiglin

If Hamas is ISIS, the world asks, why didn’t Israel destroy it given justification and opportunity?

What is the solution? We must declare, and believe, that the Land of Israel is truly ours and once again build in Judea and Samaria.

During the First Lebanon War, the IDF forced the PLO terrorists all the way to the Beirut port and then to Tunisia. The PLO, which had lost its stronghold in Lebanon, was shattered. Salach Taamri, the most senior and admired terrorist captured by the IDF, was imprisoned in the Ansar detention camp. He was a broken man.

Soldiers at various hospitals complained that they experienced hostility from Arab hospital staff.

A murderous uprising is taking place in Israel; On the roads, In the mixed Jewish-Arab cities.

We did not win the war in Gaza because we are still captive to the concept of the 2 state solution.

Trapped in a false notion of power, America will lose the battle in the same way Israel now loses.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/columns/moshe-feiglin/the-investors-guide-to-israels-political-market-part-i/2013/01/09/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: