web analytics
September 17, 2014 / 22 Elul, 5774
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
Apartment 758x530 Africa-Israel at the Israel Real Estate Exhibition in New York

Africa Israel Residences, part of the Africa Israel Investments Group led by international businessman Lev Leviev, will present 7 leading projects on the The Israel Real Estate Exhibition in New York on Sep 14-15, 2014.



The Investor’s Guide To Israel’s Political Market (Part I)

Feiglin-Moshe

The 2013 Israeli elections were supposed to have been boring. The pundits promised that the final result is already clear and there is nothing new under the sun. However, with less than two weeks to go until the polls open, we are in the throes of one of the most fascinating election campaigns that Israel has known. It is a campaign that faithfully reflects the deep currents of change in Israeli society. Nobody can yet predict its final outcome.

Here is my analysis of what is taking place, from Left to Right. First, though, we must understand the factors that influence the power of any political party:

The political world is very similar to the financial world. The “stock exchange” of the political world is elections. The value of the stocks – the political parties – is actually determined by a number of parameters. There is the stock’s current value, namely the number of people who voted for the party in the previous elections. There is also its real market value and the value at which it is traded at the given moment.

For example, the current value of Kadima is 21 mandates (seven elected members have left the party since the last election). But the real market value of the party (which has established mechanisms and registered members) is much lower. At the current moment, Kadima is being traded even below its low value and will apparently disappear off the charts.

When we try to understand what is happening now in Israel’s political arena, we must first assess the true value of the different parties. In this way, we will be able to differentiate between deep processes and processes that have no long-term significance.

The true value of a party is determined by the following six factors:

1) Message: When all is said and done, political parties are supposed to herald some sort of message. That is why they are established.

2) A consistent nucleus of voters that identifies with the party (in the financial world, this is called “trademark”).

3) Identification of voters at large (the market) with the party’s message.

4) Identification of voters at large with the party’s actions or accomplishments.

5) The party structure: Namely, an independent party that has established respectable party institutions, an internal voting mechanism and member participation in decision-making and choice of representatives.

6) The party leaders.

When Kadima was established and leapt to victory in the last election, I said that it would disappear off the political map within a few election campaigns. The reason for this evaluation was the understanding that Kadima’s “stock” was overvalued. The party enjoyed an extraordinarily strong Factor #6 in the person of its powerful and charismatic leader, Ariel Sharon. However, it lacked all the other components and it was clear that it was living on borrowed time.

At the same time, when many were already eulogizing the Likud, I publicly went on the record with the assessment that the Likud would return to the helm of government. The reason for this evaluation was that the Likud, on one level or another, enjoys all the other components listed above. So if it won only 12 mandates due to a political “accident,” its market value did not reflect the true value of the stock but rather its current value at that given time.

With these six components in mind, here now is the analysis of the current political picture:

On the Left end of the political spectrum in Israel are Meretz and the Arab parties: Hadash, Ra’am, Ta’al and Balad. No real change can be expected for any of these parties. They have all six components and we can expect them to more or less maintain their strength.

On the political Right, things are a bit more complex. Otzma LeYisrael, led by Aryeh Eldad and Michael Ben-Ari), the rightist parallel of Meretz, certainly has a clear message with well-known leaders and public identification with its message that should get it past the two percent threshold for Knesset representation. But it is a new party with no clear party structure.

The same is true for Am Shalem, Rabbi Chaim Amsalem’s party. It has a message and leadership, but it is not clear if it has the critical mass of the other components to create a real party and get it over the threshold.

About the Author: Moshe Feiglin is the Deputy Speaker of the Knesset and a member of Israel's Security and Defense Committee. He heads the Manhigut Yehudit ("Jewish Leadership") faction of Israel's governing Likud party. He is the founder of Manhigut Yehudit and Zo Artzeinu and the author of two books: "Where There Are No Men" and "War of Dreams." Feiglin served in the IDF as an officer in Combat Engineering and is a veteran of the Lebanon War. He lives in Ginot Shomron with his family.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “The Investor’s Guide To Israel’s Political Market (Part I)”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
Smoke rises near Quneitra Crossing as it seen from the Golan.Heights in the Israeli side on August 27, 2014, The IDF instructed farmers and civilians to stay away from the border with Syria on the Golan Heights.
Shelling on Golan Heights Strikes Close to Israeli News Team
Latest Indepth Stories
A Gaza building, reportedly used by Hamas, destroyed by the IDF on August 26, 2014.

For too long the media and international community have been preaching that “Palestinians” bear no responsibility for the consequences of their decisions and they are passive victims of the conflict.

The Iron Dome was called on for the first time in 2013 to intercept a missile fired by terrorists in Sinai at Eilat.

Iron Dome intercepted over 1,000 rockets aimed at Israel with a success rate of over 90% in 2014

IDF lone soldier and Ohio native David Menachem Gordon (z"l).

We talked about the responsibility that comes with the pen, its potential to influence and inspire.

Amnesty International:The crippling of the power station was “collective punishment of Palestinians”

Originally scheduled to be held elsewhere, the hotel canceled, pressured by local missionary groups

It’s likely that some of the rebel factions, including US clients, have indeed made pacts with ISIS

Imam Tafsirli of the Harlem Islamic center: “You cannot be a Muslim without believing in Jesus”

If simple fuel choice were implemented, the power of petroleum and those who sell it would cease.

Value of IS: It enables people to see the place to which all other Islamist fascism is headed.

“When Frank does something he does it well and you don’t have to worry about dotting the i’s or crossing the t’s.”

President Obama: “ISIL is not Islamic. No religion condones the killing of innocents”

he time of the Uman pilgrimage is upon us, and we dare not ignore the opportunity to highlight the danger.

Healing requires that the victim be validated for being harmed and the guilty assume responsibility.

During the war, not once was Hashem’s name mentioned to the nation by Israel’s PM or gov’t officials

More Articles from Moshe Feiglin
MK Moshe-Feiglin

We did not win the war in Gaza because we are still captive to the concept of the 2 state solution.

9/11 attack on Twin Towers: Will Obama use next week's anniversary as a platform to attack the Assad regime?

Trapped in a false notion of power, America will lose the battle in the same way Israel now loses.

Israel is our land, not theirs – Gaza included. No talk of the 2state solution; 1 state for 1 people

If this is how we play the game, we will lose. By that I mean we will lose everything.

We take US “aid” for psychological reasons-if we have an allowance, that means we have a father.

All the tactical problems have solutions. The real problem is not with the enemy; it is with us.

Why couldn’t the artillery barrage have been implemented before the soldiers went into that hell?

The Gazan octopus arm is a test case, as the rest of the arms are closely watching it.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/columns/moshe-feiglin/the-investors-guide-to-israels-political-market-part-i/2013/01/09/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: