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Facing A ‘New Middle East’: Core Recommendation For Israel’s Strategic Future (Part III)

By its improved use of correlation of forces thinking, Israel will need to seize every available operational initiative, including certain appropriate intelligence and counterintelligence functions, to best influence and control each enemy's particular matrix of expectations. This is a tall policy order, especially as these multiple enemies will include both state and sub-state adversaries, often with substantial and subtle interactions between them. Moreover, in an age of chemical, biological and even nuclear weapons, the consequences of certain IDF planning failures could be literally intolerable.

Will Hi-Tech Zone Save Jerusalem From Division?

As we saw in our last article, northern Jerusalem is a critical front in the Arab drive to take over parts of Jerusalem and to then form yet another Arab country in the Land of Israel.

Facing A ‘New Middle East’: Core Recommendation For Israel’s Strategic Future (Part II)

Any chaotic disintegration of the world system wouldfundamentally transform the Israeli system. Again, recalling the remarkable Swiss playwright, such a transformation could ultimately involve total or near-total destruction. In anticipation, Israel will have to orient its strategic planning to an assortment of worst-case prospects, thus focusing much more deliberately on a wide range of primarily self-help security options. This point simply cannot be overstated.

Facing A ‘New Middle East’: Core Recommendation For Israel’s Strategic Future (Part I)

History takes no sharp corners. Despite obvious and very consequential current upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa - especially, of course, in Egypt - the core issues and principles of war and peace remain essentially unchanged. For Israel, this means keeping an ever-sharp focus on the still-underlying existential challenges. Although it is certainly correct that there will be constant, unexpected and distinctly palpable shifts in the prevailing hierarchy of particular threats, these shifts should always be understood within a much broader explanatory context of well-established strategic theory.

Consequences Of Dissipated Rage

You were enraged by the massacre of the Fogel family in Itamar. You asked how a civilized people could behave in such a way. You were shocked that the world, for the most part, didn't care, and you realized that Israel was alone. And then you were enraged by the Jaffa bus stop bombing. You asked how a civilized people could behave in such a way. You were shocked that the world, for the most part, didn't care, and you realized that Israel was alone. And yet again, you were enraged by the rogue rocket bus attack and the barrage of rocket fire on Israel from Gaza. You had the same question, emotion, and thought as you had in the first two cases.

Jerusalem’s Division At Atarot Airport?

Practically the primary front in the Arab war against Israel is Jerusalem. The Palestinian Authority and its Arab allies have made no secret of their intention to turn the Jewish nation's eternal holy city into the capital of yet another Arab state - as merely the first step of their plan to render the entire area Jew-free.

Eight Years Of Unheeded ‘Daniel’ Warnings About Iran: What Happens Next? (Part VIII)

Looking back, The Group had concerned itself with many complex and interpenetrating points, including the need for an expanded policy of preemption; an ongoing re-evaluation of "nuclear ambiguity;" recognizable preparations for appropriate counter-value reprisals in the case of certain WMD aggressions; adaptations to a "paradigm shift" away from classical patterns of warfare; expanded cooperation with the United States in the War Against Terror and in future inter-state conflicts in the Middle East; deployment of suitable active defense systems; avoidance of nuclear war-fighting wherever possible; and various ways to improve Israel's nuclear deterrence.

Eight Years Of Unheeded ‘Daniel’ Warnings About Iran: What Happens Next? (Part VII)

Nuclear deterrence, ambiguous or partially disclosed, is essential to Israel's physical survival. If, for whatever reason, Israel should fail to prevent enemy state nuclearization, it will have to refashion its nuclear deterrent to conform to vastly more dangerous regional and world conditions. But even if this should require purposeful disclosure of its nuclear assets and doctrine, such revelation would have to be limited solely to what would be needed to convince Israel's enemies of both its capacity and its resolve.

Jerusalem Flashpoint: Har Homa

Yes, attention in and on Israel has been justifiably turned toward the Shomron town of Itamar, where two weeks ago ruthless Palestinian terrorists cruelly butchered most of the Fogel family preparing for sleep after an uplifting Sabbath meal.

The Beginning Of The Left’s End

I was filled with an uncomfortable feeling in the face of the Itamar massacre. Everyone is in shock. I feel horrible pain. But I am not shocked.

Corrupted Middle East Class At Brooklyn College

Brooklyn College's Middle East politics graduate course made headlines at the beginning of this semester. The newly hired adjunct professor, Kristofer Petersen-Overton, was fired and shortly thereafter rehired. Instead of employing responsible measures to ensure a balanced Middle East course, the college's administration chose an extreme and spineless response - one that is overwhelmingly obsessed with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and specifies on the syllabus that it will "not include details about Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan or Pakistan."

Eight Years Of Unheeded ‘Daniel’ Warnings About Iran What Happens Next? (Part VI)

Project Daniel understood that international law has long allowed for states to initiate forceful defensive measures when there exists "imminent danger" of aggression. This rule of anticipatory self-defense was expanded and reinforced by then-President George W. Bush's issuance of The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Released on September 20,2002, this document asserted, inter alia, that traditional concepts of deterrence would not work against an enemy "whose avowed tactics are wanton destruction and the targeting of innocents...." As Israel is substantially less defensible and more vulnerable than the United States, its particular right to resort to anticipatory self-defense under threat of readily identifiable existential harms is beyond legal question.

Eight Years Of Unheeded ‘Daniel’ Warnings About Iran What Happens Next? (Part V)

It is highly unlikely, The Group reasoned, that any enemy state would ever calculate that the expected benefits of annihilating Israel would be so great as to outweigh the expected costs of its own annihilation. Excluding an irrational enemy state, a prospect that falls by definition outside the logic of nuclear deterrence, all state enemies of Israel would assuredly refrain from nuclear and/or biological attacks upon Israel that would presumptively elicit massive counter-value reprisals. Naturally, this reasoning would obtain only to the extent that these enemy states fully believed Israel would actually make good on its threats.

Corrupted Middle East Class At Brooklyn College

Brooklyn College's Middle East politics graduate course made headlines at the beginning of this semester. The newly hired adjunct professor, Kristofer Petersen-Overton, was fired and shortly thereafter rehired. Instead of employing responsible measures to ensure a balanced Middle East course, the college's administration chose an extreme and spineless response - one that is overwhelmingly obsessed with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and specifies on the syllabus that it will "not include details about Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan or Pakistan."

The Best Revenge Is To Build

Even for a region accustomed to brutality, last week's Sabbath massacre in Itamar stands out for its sheer savagery and barbarism.

What’s So Dangerous About Dividing Jerusalem?

With attention focused on the intensifying unrest in the traditionally undemocratic Arab countries across the Middle East and North Africa, let us not think for a moment that Israel is no longer under pressure. The short-term view is misleading; the long term - the one that counts - indicates that the rise of Islamic forces is likely to mean a more concentrated focus against Israel in general, and against a Jewish Jerusalem in particular.

Pain And Martyrdom In The ‘New Middle East’: Hidden Meanings Of Impending Jihadist Terrorism

Revolutionary fervor still sweeping the Middle East is plainly ongoing and perilously "contagious." Above all, perhaps, these eruptions confirm that the so-called "Palestinian Problem" has never been more than a manipulated contrivance of corrupt Arab monarchies and dictatorships, and that Israel has had absolutely nothing to do with the region's core problems. Indeed, to the contrary, this fervor reveals that if the Arabs had simply embraced rather than demonized Israel from the start - a fully rational and deserved embrace that would have been enthusiastically welcomed by all Israelis - the Arab states would have benefited politically, intellectually, medically, scientifically and materially.

Eight Years Of Unheeded ‘Daniel’ Warnings About Iran What Happens Next? (Part IV)

Both Israeli nuclear and non-nuclear preemptions of enemy unconventional aggressions could lead to nuclear exchanges. This would depend, in part, upon the effectiveness and breadth of Israeli targeting, the surviving number of enemy nuclear weapons and the willingness of enemy leaders to risk Israeli nuclear counter-retaliations. In any event, the likelihood of nuclear exchanges would obviously be greatest where potential Arab and/or Iranian aggressors were allowed to deploy ever-larger numbers of unconventional weapons without eliciting appropriate Israeli and/or American preemptions.

Eight Years Of Unheeded ‘Daniel’ Warnings About Iran What Happens Next? (Part III)

The more things change, the more they remain the same. As I have indicated again and again on these pages, Israel remains the openly declared national and religious object of Arab/Islamic genocide. This term is used here, again, in the literal and jurisprudential sense. It is not merely hyperbole or an exaggerated figure of speech.

To Whom Does Jerusalem Belong?

When discussing Jewish rights in Jerusalem, it would seem nothing would be more natural to a Bible-believing world than the acceptance of these as self-evident.

Freedom And The Middle East

Even for a region that has experienced more than its fair share of upheaval, the downfall of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak last week was nothing less than a political earthquake.

Eight Years Of Unheeded ‘Daniel’ Warnings About Iran What Happens Next? (Part II)

Although The Group drew explicitly upon contemporary strategic thinking, we were also mindful of certain much-earlier investigations of war, power and survival. One such still-relevant investigation was identified in Sun-Tzu's classic, The Art of War.

Eight Years Of Unheeded ‘Daniel’ Warnings About Iran: What Happens Next? (Part I)

"We are often asked," said the late Italian Jew and Holocaust survivor Primo Levi, in The Drowned and the Saved, "as if our past conferred a prophetic ability upon us, whether Auschwitz will return." However we might choose to answer such a terrible but unavoidable question, the Jewish past seems not to have conferred the most indispensable abilities to anticipate new and still-possible genocides.

Flashpoint: The Shepherd Hotel

As we focus on Jerusalem as the central issue of the on-again, off-again - but always looming - negotiations with the PA, let us take a look at the latest flashpoint in our holy city: The Shepherd Hotel.

Bnei Akiva World Convention

Fifty years ago, when I served as the director of Bnei Akiva of New York, I wondered how my relationship with Bnei Akiva would develop. Today, years later, after coming on aliyah to Israel in 1973, I find that I still cherish my Bnei Akiva past and still enjoy the friendships that were developed so many years ago.

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