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May 28, 2015 / 10 Sivan, 5775
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Likud Tops Poll Again, Labor and Lapid Chip Away at Kadima

Israeli election workers count remaining ballots from soldiers and absentees at the Knesset in Jerusalem

Although elections are scheduled for October 2013, most of the parties’ leaders are already set. The leaders of Likud, Labor, Yisrael Beitenu (pending Liberman’s legal fate), Shas, Meretz, Independence, and Lapid’s new party are known, leading to speculation that most parties are anticipating early elections. The last of the current round of primaries is Kadima’s leadership next month. Dahaf asked 500 people based on the two main Kadima options who they would vote for and the results were not so disparate. Livni’s 13 seats give her a three-seat advantage over Mofaz. The difference between Livni and Mofaz from the nationalist camp point of view is 60 seats vs 61 seats. Yair Lapid’s new party consistently takes away support from a slumping Kadima and does not take away significant support from the nationalist camp. Meanwhile more bad news for Jewish Home who finishes another poll flirting with the threshold.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

Scenario #1:

28 [27] Likud
15 [08] Labor
13 [—] Yair Lapid Party
13 [28] Kadima Led By Livni
12 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
02 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Balad, Hadash and Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [05] Independence

Scenario #2:

28 [27] Likud
16 [08] Labor
14 [—] Yair Lapid Party
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [28] Kadima Led By Mofaz
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

About the Author: Jeremy Saltan is a frequent guest on various radio programs and and a veteran political analyst. He has run political campaigns in English and Hebrew for Israeli municipality, party institution, primary and general elections. Jeremy’s opinion pieces have been published, quoted or credited by Voice of America, Daily Beast, France 24, Washington Post, BBC, Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy, Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel, Israel National News and the Jewish Press and more.


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