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Nationalist Camp Grows to 76 seats in Recent Poll, Likud Opens Big Lead with 39 Seats

Elections in Abu Gosh

The nationalist camp grows to 76 seats according to a poll conducted by Professor Avi Degani, President of the Geocartography group, on February 17, 2012. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud jumps to a term-high 39 seats, surpassing his previous high of 38 in early January. Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu finishes second with 13 seats, a drop of two from their current position and a seat above their term-low 12. Opposition Leader Livni’s Kadima, which is in the middle of a primary battle, drops to 12 seats, a loss of more than half of their current seats. Labor captures 12 seats as well, and Shas rounds out the top five parties with nine seats. Former journalist Yair Lapid’s party drops to six seats, its lowest showing since September. If the National Union and Jewish Home would merge before elections, the poll places them as the fifth largest party with ten seats. According to the poll, Netanyahu could form a coalition of 62 seats with Liberman, National Union and Jewish Home without the need for any ultra-orthodox or center-left parties.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

39 [27] Likud

13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu

12 [28] Kadima

12 [08] Labor

09 [11] Shas

06 [---] Yair Lapid Party

05 [04] National Union

05 [03] Jewish Home

05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [03] Meretz

10 [11] Balad, Hadash and Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [05] Independence

About the Author: Jeremy Saltan is a frequent guest on various radio programs and and a veteran political analyst. He has run political campaigns in English and Hebrew for Israeli municipality, party institution, primary and general elections. Jeremy’s opinion pieces have been published, quoted or credited by Voice of America, Daily Beast, France 24, Washington Post, BBC, Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy, Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel, Israel National News and the Jewish Press and more.


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Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #8 (week of Nov 25-Dec 1) of 7 polls (Channel 10, Globes, Knesset Channel, Channel 2, Yisrael Hayom, Yediot Ahronont, Channel 1). Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 7 average in (brackets) 37.5 (38.0) [42] Likud Beytenu 19.2 (21.4) [08] Labor 11.7 (11.8) [10] Shas 9.8 (9.5) [05] Jewish Home-Tekuma 8.0 […]

The average of 2 polls published last week, Channel 2 and Jerusalem Post. The Post poll was conducted November 12-13 and the Channel 2 poll was published November 14.

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Weekly poll average: Likud-Beitenu at 38 seats; Labor at 22; the Right wing parties a little over 66 seats and the left has just under 54. The Jewish Home-National Union list rose to 9 seats while Kadima continues its decline into oblivion.

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