On 20 November, the Muslim Brotherhood-formed National Reform Council held a public conference attended by the Brotherhood’s most senior Jordanian leaders. In the conference, Zaki Bani Rushied, the head of the Brotherhood’s political party, the Jordanian Islamic Action Front Party, addressed the media: “The people of Jordan have chosen to reform the regime; people can choose to topple the regime or reform it, and here in Jordan we have chosen to reform the regime.”
The Muslim Brotherhood does not seem to want the regime to fall, but rather to change in a manner that gives them control over the government as occurred in Morocco, where King Mohammed VI appointed Islamists to form the government. Further, the Muslim Brotherhood may not be confident that, if the regime falls, it can dominate future elections. The current protests have shown that, contrary to what it has always claimed, the Muslim Brotherhood does not have full control of the Jordanian opposition. Its members therefore would apparently prefer King Abdullah to hand them control over the government.
The current situation in Jordan raises concerns for pro-Western forces, including Israel, and rightfully so. With all its shortcomings, the Hashemite regime has kept Israel’s longest border worry-free for the last forty years. If the king falls, will the future regime in Jordan keep the peace treaty with Israel, and the borders calm?
While the protests show that the Muslim Brotherhood does not have full control over the Jordanian opposition, if the King falls, the Muslim Brotherhood will be the only group that is financed and organized enough to win any future elections. Even if the Brotherhood does not win a landslide victory, it will be the group most able to influence Jordanian politics, and which has connections with Iraq and Iran – both anti-Israel and anti-West – thereby forming a major bloc of fundamentalism and terrorism.
Those interested in sustaining peace between Israel and Jordan, as well as global forces keen for peace in the Middle East, have the option of either supporting the King or supporting secular opposition forces in Jordan who might come to power should the king fall.
In a recent article, Jonathan Schanzer, vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, opines there may still be time to help the King of Jordan, by pushing him “to enact meaningful reforms,” “ensuring that international donor funds continue to flow,” and “providing security guarantees that he [the king] will not go the way of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.” These might be the few steps necessary to keep the king in his place; still, these steps might be unlikely to take place now under the current US administration, which, perhaps inadvertently, at worst assisted the Islamists in taking over Egypt, and at best did nothing to offer the Egyptians a pro-democratic alternative.
Those interested in keeping Jordan calm, peaceful, and out of the hands of Islamists should either support the king significantly, or find a quiet plan B to support the secular opposition in Jordan. As the active opposition figure Kamal Khoury, a Palestinian Christian, said, “The seculars in Jordan are strong in their numbers and following, they just need financial and media support to dominate the arena.” Dr. Khalid Kassimah, an East Banker opposition member residing in exile, stated: “The non-Islamist Jordanian opposition is no more in disarray than the Syrian secular opposition once was; minimal Western support might work wonders here; and I would not be surprised if a Jordanian opposition council is to be established in exile just as was the case in Syria.”
Raed Khammash, an East Banker and well-known anti-Hashemite opposition member, active against the regime on social media networks, said, “I believe the opposition’s success lies within the refugee camps, as they make up the majority of the population. Whoever cares for Jordan should establish contact with their leaders”.
It seems the situation in Jordan is moving towards change at a faster pace than before. There ought, therefore, to be some serious effort to establish contact with, and examine the potential of future support for, the secular opposition’s heads within the refugee camps, the Hirak Shababi (Youth Movement) and seculars within the East Bankers’ opposition.
Originally published at the Gatestone Institute.