web analytics
April 19, 2014 / 19 Nisan, 5774
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post
Spa 1.2 Combining Modern Living in Traditional Jerusalem

A unique and prestigious residential project in now being built in Mekor Haim Street in Jerusalem.



Home » InDepth » Op-Eds »

No More Lies, Sec. Kerry, There Is No ‘Existential Threat to Israel’

An Israeli maternity ward. In 2014, Israel's Jewish fertility rate (the average number of births per woman) stood at 3.04, and 3.42 when both Jewish spouses are Israeli-born. The Judea and Samaria Arabs were down from 5 in 2000 to 2.91 in 2013.

An Israeli maternity ward. In 2014, Israel's Jewish fertility rate (the average number of births per woman) stood at 3.04, and 3.42 when both Jewish spouses are Israeli-born. The Judea and Samaria Arabs were down from 5 in 2000 to 2.91 in 2013.
Photo Credit: Abir Sultan/FLASH90

Share Button

Is Secretary of State, John Kerry correct, or incorrect, when exhorting “the demographic time bomb” to scare Israel into a retreat from geography (Judea and Samaria), in order to, supposedly, secure demography?  According to Kerry, “There is an existential threat to Israel…. I am referring to the demographic dynamic that makes it impossible for Israel to preserve its future as a democratic, Jewish state without resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a two-state solution.”

Are Jews doomed to become a minority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and the pre-1967 Israel?

According to the 2013 CIA World Factbook,  Judea and Samaria Arabs  experienced a dramatic decline in fertility rate (the average number of births per woman): from five births in 2000 to 2.91 in 2013.  On the other hand, in 2014, Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics documents a 3.04 Jewish fertility rate and 3.42 when both Jewish spouses are Israeli-born.

“A new Palestinian generation opts for fewer children is the title of an article by Rasha Abou Jalal, a Gaza journalist:  While Islam calls for believers to bear many children and prohibits the use of birth control, new Palestinian generations are defying tradition and leaning toward limiting the number of children they have…. The new generation takes into consideration various economic and cultural factors before deciding to have children.  The idea of limiting childbearing has, therefore, garnered more supporters than before…. The more Palestinians become aware and rational, the less they will procreate, as they pursue a level of education and knowledge that suits them and increases their chances of having a better life….

The Westernization of Muslim demographic trends, from Iran (1.8 births per woman), through Saudi Arabia (2.3), Syria and Egypt (2.9) and North Africa (1.8) has also characterized Muslim women in Judea, Samaria, Gaza and pre-1967 Israel. The unprecedented decline in Muslim fertility has been driven by modernity: accelerated women’s rights, urbanization, education, career mentality and family planning (72% of 15-49 year old married Palestinian women prefer to avoid pregnancy).  Thus, contemporary young Muslim women are reluctant to get married at the age of fifteen and start reproducing at the age of sixteen.  They tend to postpone marriage until after the age of 20 and prefer limited reproduction.

On the other hand, in 2014, the Israeli Jewish fertility rate (three births per woman and trending upwards) is higher than in any Arab country, other than Yemen, Iraq and Jordan.  Jewish demography has been enhanced by a high level of optimism, patriotism, communal responsibility and attachment to roots among religious and secular, hawks and doves, conservative and liberal Israelis, bolstered by economic progress. While the annual number of Arab births – west of the Jordan River – has stabilized since 1995, the annual number of Jewish births has surged from 80,000 in 1995 to about 132,000 in 2013 – a 65% increase!  This dramatic leap occurred despite declining fertility among ultra-orthodox Jews, but due to the substantial rise of secular Jewish fertility.  In 1995 there were 2.3 Jewish births per one Arab birth in Israel; in 2014 – 3.3 births.  In 1995, the number of Jewish births constituted 69% of total Israeli births; in 2014 – 77% and rising.

In 2014, there is a robust 66% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel – compared with a 9% and 39% in 1900 and 1947 – benefitting from a tailwind of fertility and net-immigration.  This contrasts with declining Arab fertility and annual Arab net-emigration (in 2014, 20,000 from Judea and Samaria).  In 2014, Israel’s Jewish population has reached 6.5 million people, next to 1.7 million Israeli Arabs and 1.7 million Judean and Samarian Arabs – one million less than the number claimed by the Palestinian Authority.  The misrepresentation was conceived in the late 1990s, in response to the arrival of one million Soviet Jews to Israel.  It consists of overseas residents, overseas births, by double-counting Jerusalem Arabs as Israeli Arabs (by Israel) and West Bankers (by the Palestinian Authority), etc..

According to a March 17, 2006 Gallup Poll survey, preferred family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates: Israeli Jews aspired to 3.7 births per woman, while Palestinians aspired to 4.7 births.  Although, 2014 indicates compatibility with Jewish preference, Palestinian fertility is decreasing much faster than expected by Gallup.

All doomsday demographic projections have failed due to their reliance on past demographic data, underestimating Jewish fertility, overestimating Arab fertility and discarding the feasibility of significant waves of Aliyah (Jewish immigration). Since 1898 and 1944, the demographic establishment has issued multiple projections on the ostensible inevitability of an Arab majority in the Land of Israel, attempting to scare Zionist leaders into inaction and retreat.  In 1967, Prime Minister Eshkol was urged to evacuate Judea and Samaria, lest there be an Arab majority by 1987.  On July 6, 1987, Prof. Arnon Sofer contended that an Arab majority was expected by 2000. Together with Prof. Sergio DellaPergolla, they dismissed any prospect of Jewish immigration from the USSR.  In fact, one million Jews arrived!  A pro-active Aliyah policy could produce 500,000 Olim in the next ten years, catapulting the Jewish majority in Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel to 80% by 2035.

The demography of doom distorts reality, instills pessimism, subordinates long-term strategic vision to baseless fatalism, rationalizes a policy of submission to pressure and self-destructive retreat, intensifies global pressure and radicalizes Arab demands, thus promoting violence and undermining peace.

Will Secretary Kerry embrace demographic reality, which highlights a robust Jewish demographic tailwind and not an Arab demographic time bomb?!

Share Button

About the Author: Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger is consultant to Israel’s Cabinet members and Israeli legislators, and lecturer in the U.S., Canada and Israel on Israel’s unique contributions to American interests, the foundations of U.S.-Israel relations, the Iranian threat, and Jewish-Arab issues.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

Leave a comment (Select your commenting platform)

10 Responses to “No More Lies, Sec. Kerry, There Is No ‘Existential Threat to Israel’”

  1. Herman Christoffel Kuun says:

    With an anti-Semitic Western press it is difficult to get to the real truth regarding Israel. For objectivity it is important to also take note of the Israeli press which is mostly more reliable.

  2. John Kerry has been known as Hanoi John in honor of his traitorous conduct in 1960's. then he wrote and bragged in his book "Winter Soldier" about his UNAUTHORIZED meetings with North Viet Cong leaders in Paris at a peace convention, then in 2004 had all his books confiscated from Public Libraries and from Sales. He's never changed.

  3. Cathy Sherman says:

    If Israel would apply the Sovereignty plan over Judea and Samaria and deport the terrorists or those who don't want to live under Jewish sovereignty, the more peaceful state might attract more Jews from the diaspora. That would certainly help the demographics.

  4. Jane Smith says:

    Members of the 0bama Administration are incapable of saying anything but lies. Just look at the spin doctoring that Hillary Clinton is doing on the Benghazi issue. John Kerry is no better, and should not be trusted.

  5. Jake Kimball says:

    The LIBERAL FLIP-FLOPPER is still at it!

  6. If the Jewish Nation and its people are foolish enough to listen to an believe anything that Kerry or Obama say then they deserve what horrors that it brings Americans have been learning the hard way that obama lies and cares only for his personal ambitions and every one has know for years that Kerry was a liar and turn coat of the lowest order. So if you want to preserve the Jewish Nation and people, stay away from these two liars and their traitorous ways or end up like the Jews of the Hitler generation did.

  7. Give Kerry his Nobel "peace"prize, and then tell his to stay away and give the same mesaage to Omama, to keep out of Israel.
    They are trying so hard to destroy Israel. But the joke is on them.
    Israel will be here long after our enemies have disappeared.
    This is a repeat of the old history. Those who have tried to destroy the Jews have been destroyed. The Jews are here, and will always be here..

  8. Kerry, no two state solution. Israel should annex all land within 500 kilometers of jerusalem in every direction.

  9. "Catch up" Kerry should stay home to make more "catch up" with Obama, saad, saad for the American public to have two "catch up" people in their goverment.

  10. makes me think of how Pharaoh oppressed the Israelites as they were growing in numbers and he gave the order for the midwives to kill all male babies born to the Israelites, Still the Lord G-d saw their plight and delivered them out of slavery, so why should Israel fear Kerry or Obama?

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Loading Facebook Comments ...
Loading Disqus Comments ...
Current Top Story
FBI Wanted poster for Osama bin Laden
Pakistan Library Renamed to Honor bin Laden
Latest Indepth Stories
matza

If itis a mitzva to eat matza all Pesach, then why is there no berakha attached to it?

Masked Palestinian Authority Arabs hurl blocks at Israel Police during and after "worship" at Temple Mount mosque. (archive photo)

When we are united with unconditional love, no stone will be raised against us by our enemies.

Haredim riot after draft-dodger is arrested.

The reporter simply reports the news, but it is greater to be inspired to better the situation.

Bitton-041814

The Big Bang theory marked the scientific community’s first sense of the universe having a beginning.

Freeing convicted murderers returns the status of Jewish existence to something less than sanctified.

“The bigger they are the harder they fall” describes what God had in mind for Olmert.

We, soldiers of the IDF, who stand guard over the people and the land, fulfill the hopes of the millions of Jewish people across the generations who sought freedom.

How much is the human mind able to grasp of the Divine?

Jews have brought the baggage of the galut (exile) mentality to the modern state of Israel.

The Haggadah is an instruction manual on how to survive as strangers in strange lands.

It’s finally happened. New York Times public editor Margaret Sullivan reported on her blog that “many readers…wrote to object to an [April 2] article…on the breakdown in peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians,” claiming “[they] found the headline misleading and the article itself lacking in context.” Ms. Sullivan provided one such letter, quoted the […]

Nor did it seem relevant that according to widely circulated media reports, Rev. Sharpton was caught on an FBI surveillance video discussing possible drug sales with an FBI agent.

Jewish soldiers in the Polish forces often encountered anti-Semitic prejudice.

When the state was established, gedolim went to Ben-Gurion and asked him not to draft women and, later, yeshiva bachrim.

More Articles from Yoram Ettinger
A Jewish child walks beside a stream near Jerusalem. The water from the stream is used to make matzo for Pesach.

The 1948 re-establishment of Jewish sovereignty was a modern day Exodus and Parting of the Sea.

tel aviv purim

What’s this Purim all about?

President Obama’s foreign policy is based on fantasy.

Israel’s popularity is at the highest since 1991, when Gallup first polled Americans on foreign countries.

According to Winston Churchill, “an appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.”

The assumption that Israel must accept the Kerry Plan as a basis for negotiations is misleading.

No danger of the Jews becoming a minority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and the pre-1967 Israel.

Tu B’shvat highlights the rejuvination and blooming of trees and the Jewish people.

    Latest Poll

    Now that Kerry's "Peace Talks" are apparently over, are you...?







    View Results

    Loading ... Loading ...

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/opinions/no-more-lies-sec-kerry-there-is-no-existential-threat-to-israel/2014/01/26/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: