web analytics
January 26, 2015 / 6 Shevat, 5775
 
At a Glance
InDepth
Sponsored Post


Home » InDepth » Op-Eds »

Predictive Journalism, Nate Silver, and the Talmudic Mind

251658240

251658240

Baye’s Theorem considers “Priors” (also called “signals”) – events that we have pre-existing knowledge on – and “Posteriors” – events that we want to predict. While the theorem has again been around for over 250 years, well-known journalist Nate Silver has adapted the theorem into what he calls the “Bayesian convergence,” or the method of dispelling myths and opposing opinions as evidence of the most likely outcome is uncovered.

As in our previous articles, our subject of focus will be the concept, marketability, or point of attraction behind Baye’s Theorem. Specifically, how Nate approaches it different from others, so much so that he is now assembling a team to carry out his approach to journalism as part of the relaunch of his site, FiveThirtyEight.com.

But in order for his findings, and those under him, to be statistically accurate, even the most unique journalist pieces need to be based on what Baye’s Theorem calls “Priors.” But while the result is to dispel myths, these disruptive results need to be based on prior statistical findings.

First, this is the example that Wikipedia uses to explain Baye’s Theroem (you can read the equation part here:

Suppose a man told you he had had a nice conversation with someone on the train. Not knowing anything about this conversation, the probability that he was speaking to a woman is 50% (assuming the train had an equal number of men and women and the speaker was as likely to strike up a conversation with a man as with a woman). Now suppose he also told you that his conversational partner had long hair. It is now more likely he was speaking to a woman, since women are more likely to have long hair than men. Bayes’ theorem can be used to calculate the probability that the person was a woman.

A Game of Priors The first finding, gained as the result of corresponding Nate’s work to the sefirah of chochmah, is that the primary task of a past-minded predictive journalist should be to continuously weigh and reanalyze Priors (pre-existing statistic) not Posteriors (event we want to predict).

For events that already occurred, as in the train example, instead of searching for the most probable Posterior, the approach of chochmah, the yiddishe kop, is to search for the one true Anterior (what actually happened).

As we will explain later, Nate still has come up with a good chap (catch) with how he approaches Baye’s Theorem for events that have not yet occurred. But for the meantime, since most examples used to explain Baye’s describe events that happened, these relate to an exercise in discovering the one true outcome, not the most probable.

This story aptly illustrates this point. Appropriately enough, another train story! (reprinted with permission from Jewlarious.com):

After months of negotiation with the authorities, a Talmudist from Odessa was finally granted permission to visit Moscow.

He boarded the train and found an empty seat. At the next stop, a young man got on and sat next to him. The scholar looked at the young man and he thought: This fellow doesn’t look like a peasant, so if he is no peasant he probably comes from this district. If he comes from this district, then he must be Jewish because this is, after all, a Jewish district.

But on the other hand, since he is a Jew, where could he be going? I’m the only Jew in our district who has permission to travel to Moscow.

Ahh, wait! Just outside Moscow there is a little village called Samvet, and Jews don’t need special permission to go to Samvet But why would he travel to Samvet? He is surely going to visit one of the Jewish families there. But how many Jewish families are there in Samvet? Aha, only two — the Bernsteins and the Steinbergs. But since the Bernsteins are a terrible family, so such a nice looking fellow like him, he must be visiting the Steinbergs.

About the Author: Yonatan Gordon is a student of Harav Yitzchak Ginsburgh, and publishes his writings on InwardNews.com, a new site he co-founded.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “Predictive Journalism, Nate Silver, and the Talmudic Mind”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
Kosher Wine Review features a wine from Yatir, whose grapes are grown the Judean Hills south of Hebron.
Israeli Wine Exports Sparkle [video]
Latest Indepth Stories
The Striped Hyaena

Israel has some wild places left; places to reflect and think, to get lost, to try to find ourselves

British Flag

The British government assured Anglo-Jewry that it is attacking the rising levels of anti-Semitism.

Golan map

Obama’s Syrian policy failures created the current situation in the Golan Heights.

Social Media pic

Our journey begins by attempting to see things differently, only then can we be open to change.

Despite Western ‘Conventional Wisdom&PC,’ the Arab/Israeli conflict was never about the Palestinians

Confrontation & accountability, proven techniques, might also help dealing with religious terrorists

In fact, wherever you see soldiers in Paris today, you pretty much know you’re near Jewish site

Inspired by the Perek Shira pasuk for “small non-kosher animals” we named the bunny “Rebbetzin Tova”

The abuse following publication proved a cautionary tale: no one followed in Peters’s footsteps

Plainly, there is no guiding hand dictating choices across the board.

How many sites that tell you to check your politics at the door have 10,000 likes?

In this particular case, the issue was whether the Arkansas prison system could prohibit, for security reasons, a devout Muslim’s maintaining a beard of a certain length as a matter of religious practice.

While we recognize the Republican Jewish Coalition is hardly a non-partisan outfit, a snippet from a statement the group released is worthy of note:

“These are good matzah balls,” my aunt Robertine would say, but her sister Irma would counter “No, not compared to Mama’s. They were always so light yet they never fell apart.”

More Articles from Yonatan Gordon
Skateboard king at Chabad-Lubavitch Yeshiva in Jerusalem

I envision a Kiruv approach perceiving a world filled with Godliness instead of issues to be avoided

Harper Collins

Whereas we didn’t expect much from HarperCollins, we need to expect more from ourselves.

What does it mean “to fight as a Jew”? Fighting with the power of voice, the “voice of Jacob.”

San Francisco schools transformed by power of daily meditation,successfully reducing school violence

Pop culture teaches “thought creates reality;” Chassidut: “Divinity’s a given,reality’s a novelty”

“Deliberance” means to be inspired by “hearing the great shofar blast” ushering the Redemption

There is no difficulty today recognizing the “doubled and redoubled” darkness of the world.

A revolution is taking place between good and evil; light and darkness. Make the light activism!

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/opinions/predictive-journalism-nate-silver-and-the-talmudic-mind/2014/02/19/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: