The website GOP.com on Monday suggested that President Obama’s campaign is trying to protect Pennsylvania, sending big gun Joe Biden to a state that was considered safe for Democrats. The website claims the reason for the sudden change in strategy was the huge GOP edge in absentee ballot returns in that state, which went for Obama by 10% in 2008.

In 2008 the GOP edged the Democrats by a mere 2% in absentee ballot returns, says the website As of Monday, the GOP’s lead was 18.8% — a 16.9% bump. Republicans have turned in 55.2% of the absentee ballots to date while the Democrats have returned just 36.4%.

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GOP.com boasts a huge effort on the ground in Pennsylvania in recent months, with more than 60 staff and dozens of offices, adding: “We have made over 5 million volunteer voter contacts including over 1 million volunteer door knocks across Pennsylvania. That voter contact is paying off in the absentee ballot returns and clearly the President’s campaign sees it in their numbers. That’s why they are playing defense in the Keystone state as Governor Romney’s momentum allows us to expand the map.”

But while this good news for Romney may be very real, every single poll conducted in Pennsylvania in the past two weeks gives the edge to Obama, including Rasmussen Reports, which on October 24 showed Obama with a 51-46 lead. The poll average is at +4.6 in Obama’s favor.

Next Tuesday is going to be a very long night, possibly well into Wednesday…

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6 COMMENTS

  1. No poll (other than one Republican poll that everyone discounts) has given Romney a lead in PA since February.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html#polls

    And you can't compare absentee voting in PA to other places or even previous elections because the Republican governor and legislature made it harder to vote early. Barring a major swing to the Republicans, the only chance Romney ever had in PA was massive voter suppression, which the Republican governor and legislature did attempt, but the courts shot them down.

  2. This race feels like one in which fence sitters really won't make up their minds until they are pressing the buttons or inking the ballot or whatever they do in the various states, so it will most likely not be known until the following morning who has won. Whatever happens there will be a serious amount of deflation in the camp of the loser, as well as in the general populace.

  3. This race feels like the MSM is trying to act like it is a horse race and Republicans are really getting desperate. Nearly every recognized electoral model has Obama at 75+% chance of winning (3 out of 4). It is still possible for Romney to win but very unlikely. Which is good since he has absolutely no plan and only a pretty sounding framework w/o any details.

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