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April 18, 2014 / 18 Nisan, 5774
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Microsoft, Technion Scientists Invent Software to Predict the Future

The system initially used 22 years of New York Times archives, from 1986 to 2007.
Technion Researcher Kira Radinsky

Technion Researcher Kira Radinsky
Photo Credit: Technion - Israel Institute of Technology

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Eric Horvitz, distinguished scientist and co-director at Microsoft Research, and Kira Radinsky, a PhD researcher at the Technion-Israel Institute, say they have developed software which can predict future events.

The prototype uses a mix of archival material from the New York Times and data from several websites, including Wikipedia. During its setup phase, the system used 22 years of New York Times archives, from 1986 to 2007.

“One source we found useful was DBpedia, which is a structured form of the information inside Wikipedia constructed using crowdsourcing,” Radinsky told told MIT Technology Review. “We can understand, or see, the location of the places in the news articles, how much money people earn there, and even information about politics.” Other sources included WordNet, which helps software understand the meaning of words, and OpenCyc, a database of common knowledge.

The system could someday enable aid organizations to be more proactive in tackling disease outbreaks, Horvitz said.. “I truly view this as a foreshadowing of what’s to come,” he added. “Eventually, this kind of work will start to have an influence on how things go for people.”

The system provides some amazing results, apparently, when it is tested on historical data. Reports of droughts in Angola in 2006 triggered a warning about possible cholera outbreaks in the country, because previous events had taught the system that cholera outbreaks were more likely in years following droughts.

A second warning about cholera in Angola was triggered by news reports of large storms in Africa in early 2007—and, less than a week later, reports appeared that cholera had begun to spread. In similar tests involving forecasts of disease, violence, and high numbers of deaths, the system’s warnings were correct between 70 and 90 percent of the time.

According to Horvitz, the system is good enough to expect a more exact version that could be used in real settings, to assist experts at aid agencies involved in planning humanitarian response and readiness. “We’ve done some reaching out and plan to do some follow-up work with such people,” says Horvitz.

Horvitz and Radinsky are not the first to consider using online news and other data to forecast future events, but they say they make use of more data sources—more than 90 in total—which allows their system to be more general-purpose.

Microsoft doesn’t have plans to commercialize Horvitz and Radinsky’s research as yet, but the project will continue, says Horvitz, who wants to mine more newspaper archives as well as digitized books.

“Eventually this kind of work will start to have an influence on how things go for people,” Horvitz said.

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About the Author: Yori Yanover has been a working journalist since age 17, before he enlisted and worked for Ba'Machane Nachal. Since then he has worked for Israel Shelanu, the US supplement of Yedioth, JCN18.com, USAJewish.com, Lubavitch News Service, Arutz 7 (as DJ on the high seas), and the Grand Street News. He has published Dancing and Crying, a colorful and intimate portrait of the last two years in the life of the late Lubavitch Rebbe, (in Hebrew), and two fun books in English: The Cabalist's Daughter: A Novel of Practical Messianic Redemption, and How Would God REALLY Vote.


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11 Responses to “Microsoft, Technion Scientists Invent Software to Predict the Future”

  1. The birth of psychohistory. Only in Israel.

  2. The birth of psychohistory. Only in Israel.

  3. Ari Z. Cohen says:

    Did the software know that was going to happen

  4. Liad Bar-el says:

    Ask this software if this project will be sucessful, in what time period and then see if it is true.

  5. Stephen Leavitt says:

    I bet it will predict that Shimon Peres will say we could have peace with the Palestinians within a year, if only we give them more concessions beyond what we gave them the year before, when we could have had peace with the Palestinians within the year, if only we will give them more concessions beyond what we gave them the year before, when we could have had peace with the Palestinians within a year, if only we will give them more concession beyond what we gave them the year before…

  6. Stephen Leavitt says:

    I bet it will predict that Shimon Peres will say we could have peace with the Palestinians within a year, if only we give them more concessions beyond what we gave them the year before, when we could have had peace with the Palestinians within the year, if only we will give them more concessions beyond what we gave them the year before, when we could have had peace with the Palestinians within a year, if only we will give them more concession beyond what we gave them the year before…

  7. Bracha Benaim says:

    Ha!

  8. Gil Gilman says:

    Everyone have a good sized rock in hand?

  9. An incredible young Technion researcher leading the way to another amazing technology.

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