web analytics
March 3, 2015 / 12 Adar , 5775
At a Glance
News & Views
Sponsored Post


RACE TO CITY HALL

Nate Silver: Quinn the Most Likely Democrat

Her support has dropped 39% percent, but she still manages to keep her lead over her opponents, including Mr. Weiner.
Christine Quinn

Christine Quinn

Take it from Nate. If there’s one pundit that has a record of predicting election outcomes accurately, it is Nate Silver of the NY Times Five Thirty Eight Blog. In the 2012 presidential elections, Silver was the only pundit who confidently predicted the election outcome, based on his analysis of public opinion polls.

In this year’s mayoral election, while it may be seen as a wide open race, Nate Silver already presumes City Council Speaker Christine C. Quinn will very likely win the Democratic nomination in September, or in an October runoff. The early Democratic front-runner in recent New York City mayoral races has a near perfect record in going on to win the party’s nomination, according to an analysis of public opinion surveys conducted since 1989.

In five of the past six Democratic primaries for mayor, the candidate who led in an average of polls conducted in the first six months of the election year advanced to the general election, Silver writes. The only exception was in 2009, when Anthony Weiner led Bill Thompson Jr. by five percentage points but decided to quit the race.

In this year’s mayoral race, Ms. Quinn has a lead of 17 percentage points in an average of the seven primary polls conducted so far. Although her level of support has fallen 39% percent in January, to 24% in the most recent Marist poll, she has managed to maintain a lead over her opponents, including Mr. Weiner.

Based on historical precedent and poll analysis, Nate Silver predicts: “Ms. Quinn is likely to win the Democratic nomination, even if she has to face a runoff election first.”

Silver has one glimpse of hope for the top four candidates polling in double digits. “While the early front-runner virtually always secures the nomination, underdogs have leapfrogged over other candidates to finish in the top tier (although never to win). In 2005, Mr. Weiner was barely in double digits in the first 15 polls of the year, but secured 29 percent of the primary vote, finishing in second place. In 1997, early surveys showed the Rev. Al Sharpton with just 9 percent of the vote, but he, too, went on to finish second in the primary, winning 32 percent of the vote.”

About the Author: Jacob Kornbluh is described as an up and coming Orthodox Jewish Blogger, writing about Local, national and Israeli politics, and a freelance reporter for various publications. Kornbluh's work has been featured in Haaretz, the NY Times, local blogs, and on local Jewish Radio, Kornbluh also covers the NYC 2013 mayoral race in general and a focus on the Jewish vote in particular at: http://nymayor.blogspot.com. Follow Jacob on Twitter @jacobkornbluh and his daily blog: jacobkornbluh.com


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “Nate Silver: Quinn the Most Likely Democrat”

Comments are closed.

Current Top Story
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addresses a joint session of the US Congress on March 3, 2015.
‘Alliance Between Israel & US Must Always Remain Above Politics’
Latest News Stories
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addresses a joint session of the US Congress on March 3, 2015.

“Today the Jewish people face another attempt by yet another Persian potentate…” to wipe out Israel, PM Netanyahu told Congress.

Americans have a more favorable view of Netanyahu than they do of Obama.

Israel’s PM Netanyahu was interrupted 40 times with standing ovations in his 40 minute historic speech to the US Congress on Tuesday. Transcript here.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the US Congress in Washington on May 24 2011.

The transcript of PM Netanyahu’s speech is available here. The speech begins at 6pm Israel Time / 11AM NY Time.

Netanyahu's map illustrating the extent of the Iran-funded  Hezbollah terrorist network.

The Prime Minister showed AIPAC a map of Iranian-backed Hezbollah attacks in five different continents.

If Iran is serious, Netanyahu can skip his speech and tell the Air Force to rev up its engines.

Names and contact information of House Democrats who have confirmed attendance at Bibi’s speech.

The anti-Netanyahu crowd, in the spirit of topsy-turvy Purim, drummed up support for his speech.

Iran, like the Palestinian Authority, has one mindset. A deal is not peace. It is an evil piece of paper.

PA President Mahmoud Abbas is making sure PA children will go without milk and the parents forced to ration what little milk they have.

US President Barack Obama contends Israel is “safer today than ever before,” says give Iran talks a chance.

Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is threatening to kill the founder of Twitter and his employees because they are blocking tweets from Daesh, known also as ISIS.

US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power tells AIPAC on Monday that America “will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. Period.”

“Today, we are no longer silent; today, we have a voice. Tomorrow, as prime minister of the only Jewish state, I plan to use that voice.”

Former Consul Alon Pinkas charges Prime Minister Netanyahu is “injecting Israel into the American political arena – he loves doing that.”

Former Israel Ambassador to the UN Dore Gold says PM Netanyahu’s speech to Congress “will have substance no one has heard before.”

Want to know who are the Bibicotters and how you can tell them what you think?

More Articles from Jacob Kornbluh
Judge Shira Scheindlin was taken out to the woodshed by the federal court.

Lhota loves the stop-and-frisk court ruling, de Blasio ‘disappointed.’

Bill de Blassio is expected to win the mayoral race by 40 percentage points.

Lhota admitted that he couldn’t pronounce the term “metzitzah b’peh,” an issue of concern that was brought up several times throughout the day.

“Did you miss me?” Lhota responded with a devilish smirk when asked by a Capital New York reporter about his new aggressive style.

Bill de Blasio may well be measuring the drapes of Gracie Mansion as a new poll shows him with a commanding 44 point lead.

Lhota: “David Koch’s beliefs on social issues are no different than mine or my opponent’s when it comes to women’s choice and women’s issues and other issues like that.”

Thompson brushed off suggestions that having D’Amato stumping for him tarnished his liberal credentials.

“The accusation that I said I’m going to target the Jewish community is an outright lie.”

The Lhota campaign email against Catsimatidis quickly switched to a fund-raising plea.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/nate-silver-quinn-the-most-likely-democrat/2013/06/09/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: