web analytics
March 31, 2015 / 11 Nisan, 5775
At a Glance
News & Views
Sponsored Post


RACE TO CITY HALL

Nate Silver: Quinn the Most Likely Democrat

Her support has dropped 39% percent, but she still manages to keep her lead over her opponents, including Mr. Weiner.
Christine Quinn

Christine Quinn

Take it from Nate. If there’s one pundit that has a record of predicting election outcomes accurately, it is Nate Silver of the NY Times Five Thirty Eight Blog. In the 2012 presidential elections, Silver was the only pundit who confidently predicted the election outcome, based on his analysis of public opinion polls.

In this year’s mayoral election, while it may be seen as a wide open race, Nate Silver already presumes City Council Speaker Christine C. Quinn will very likely win the Democratic nomination in September, or in an October runoff. The early Democratic front-runner in recent New York City mayoral races has a near perfect record in going on to win the party’s nomination, according to an analysis of public opinion surveys conducted since 1989.

In five of the past six Democratic primaries for mayor, the candidate who led in an average of polls conducted in the first six months of the election year advanced to the general election, Silver writes. The only exception was in 2009, when Anthony Weiner led Bill Thompson Jr. by five percentage points but decided to quit the race.

In this year’s mayoral race, Ms. Quinn has a lead of 17 percentage points in an average of the seven primary polls conducted so far. Although her level of support has fallen 39% percent in January, to 24% in the most recent Marist poll, she has managed to maintain a lead over her opponents, including Mr. Weiner.

Based on historical precedent and poll analysis, Nate Silver predicts: “Ms. Quinn is likely to win the Democratic nomination, even if she has to face a runoff election first.”

Silver has one glimpse of hope for the top four candidates polling in double digits. “While the early front-runner virtually always secures the nomination, underdogs have leapfrogged over other candidates to finish in the top tier (although never to win). In 2005, Mr. Weiner was barely in double digits in the first 15 polls of the year, but secured 29 percent of the primary vote, finishing in second place. In 1997, early surveys showed the Rev. Al Sharpton with just 9 percent of the vote, but he, too, went on to finish second in the primary, winning 32 percent of the vote.”

About the Author: Jacob Kornbluh is described as an up and coming Orthodox Jewish Blogger, writing about Local, national and Israeli politics, and a freelance reporter for various publications. Kornbluh's work has been featured in Haaretz, the NY Times, local blogs, and on local Jewish Radio, Kornbluh also covers the NYC 2013 mayoral race in general and a focus on the Jewish vote in particular at: http://nymayor.blogspot.com. Follow Jacob on Twitter @jacobkornbluh and his daily blog: jacobkornbluh.com


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “Nate Silver: Quinn the Most Likely Democrat”

Comments are closed.

Current Top Story
One-third of polled Republicans see President Obama as the biggest imminent threat to the USA.
One-Third of GOP Voters See Obama Worse for US than Assad and Putin
Latest News Stories
One-third of polled Republicans see President Obama as the biggest imminent threat to the USA.

A Reuters poll shows that America is increasingly polarized, especially about President Obama.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu continued to lash out at a possible “bad deal” with Iran Monday and said, “The agreement being formulated in Lausanne sends a message that there is no price for aggression and on the contrary – that Iran’s aggression is to be rewarded.” Netanyahu said in a statement: The moderate and responsible […]

Jerusalem resident and Israeli citizen Khalil Adal Khalil arrested for joining the ISIS.

Release of a gag order reveals that the Israeli citizen and a friend traveled to Syria last year.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Lausanne has become the center stage of act that would put the world’s best novelist or Broadway producer to shame.

Inspections of Iranian nuclear sites won’t uncover possible nuclear activity in North Korea, or even China.

Colel Chabad and IFCJ have made sure thousands of Israelis will celebrate Passover with good food this year.

Former Secy of State Hillary Clinton says she wants to see US-Israeli relations on a “constructive footing” and Israel negotiating with the PA.

A rocket launched from Gaza landed in the Sinai, in the Egyptian half of the town of Rafiach (Rafah).

Rami Levi’s operating and net profit suffered from a 12% increase in the costs of selling, marketing, general and administrative expenses.

Matzah baking isn’t all just hard work. Sometimes it can be fun too.

Today on the Hebrew calendar is the 10th of Nisan – the day the People of Israel crossed into their new Land.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert found guilty of fraud and breach of trust in a retrial in the ‘Talansky Affair.’

Iran suddenly refuses to transfer its already enriched uranium, despite prior agreement.

The PA chose practical self interest (survival) and is backing down from its unilateral threats.

A man makes his cooking pots kosher for Passover by dipping them into boiling water, in a process called Hagala.

Israel’s Government Building Becomes ‘Greenest Parliament’ in the World

More Articles from Jacob Kornbluh
Judge Shira Scheindlin was taken out to the woodshed by the federal court.

Lhota loves the stop-and-frisk court ruling, de Blasio ‘disappointed.’

Bill de Blassio is expected to win the mayoral race by 40 percentage points.

Lhota admitted that he couldn’t pronounce the term “metzitzah b’peh,” an issue of concern that was brought up several times throughout the day.

“Did you miss me?” Lhota responded with a devilish smirk when asked by a Capital New York reporter about his new aggressive style.

Bill de Blasio may well be measuring the drapes of Gracie Mansion as a new poll shows him with a commanding 44 point lead.

Lhota: “David Koch’s beliefs on social issues are no different than mine or my opponent’s when it comes to women’s choice and women’s issues and other issues like that.”

Thompson brushed off suggestions that having D’Amato stumping for him tarnished his liberal credentials.

“The accusation that I said I’m going to target the Jewish community is an outright lie.”

The Lhota campaign email against Catsimatidis quickly switched to a fund-raising plea.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/nate-silver-quinn-the-most-likely-democrat/2013/06/09/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: