web analytics
July 29, 2015 / 13 Av, 5775
At a Glance
Special Features
Sponsored Post


DEPT. OF SPECULATIONS

New Poll: Likud-Beiteinu Downslide Continues, Bennett Steady at 15

HaBayit HaYehudi keeps its momentum going, poll finds 43% of Bennett's voters are not religious.
F121231FFAS03

Photo Credit: Amit Shabi/POOL/FLASH90

And we’re off to the races with Tuesday morning’s Walla News TNS Teleseker, as the battered Likud-Beiteinu, with one leader tied behind its back with an indictment, is unable to stop the hemorrhaging of its votes to other right-wing parties. And so, had the elections been held on Sunday, when the poll was conducted (using a sample of 500 age 18+ Israelis, with a 2 seat margin of error), Likud-Beiteinu would have dropped to 34 seats, as compared with 35 seats in the same poll a week ago.

Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home appears completely recovered from the glitch of last week’s “refusal to evacuate Jew” fiasco, and it continues to own its 15 seats, give or take, as it did in the same poll a week ago.

Shas also maintains it rise from 10 to 11 seats, and Torah Judaism’s rise from 5 to 6 seats is a fait accompli.

On the other hand, Power to Israel has dropped off the face of the Earth in this poll, a victim of the “blocking percentage” that requires a list to gain two seats before it can receive its first seat.

Except that with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 seats, it is quite possible that both Aryeh Eldad and Michael Ben Ari, the two bad boys of the Israeli right, will make it into the Knesset.

Altogether, the Likud-Beiteinu has lost 4 seats in three weeks in the Walla weekly poll, and so, even though the Right plus Haredim block maintains its 66 seat majority, Likud-Beiteinu’s share in the loot is shrinking.

On the Left things have remained about the same this week in this poll: Labor with 18, both Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid with 10 each, Meretz with 4, and Kadima is back in the race with 2 (down from its 28 seats in the previous elections). The Arab parties are down to just 10 seats from their previous projections of 12 and 11 – but that, too, is within the margin of error and the Arabs could very well end up with 12 seats.

There are a few unexpected developments reflected in this week’s poll.

First, the additional Shas seat can be explained by the anti-illegal workers sentiment among non-religious Israelis. The segment of the population that’s exposed more than any other to the phenomenon of idle African illegals loitering in their streets are working class Jews in the low income neighborhoods of the big cities, who are more likely to also be Sephardi.

Shas co-leader, Interior Minister Eli Yishai, is perceived publicly as an unabashed enemy of illegal migrants, and so, given those two factors, secular Israeli Sephardim may be feeling that their single issue would be best addressed with Shas in the government.

That brings us to the next unexpected development: paradoxically, the more secure Netanyahu appears in his future as the next prime minister, the more votes he’s going to lose. Since no one has risen to a point where they can hope to challenge Netanyahu for the top job – the more the thinking voter both on the left and on the right is going to figure out how to use their vote not to secure Netanyahu’s spot but to influence the direction of his government.

This is why both the moderate right – Jewish Home, and the moderate left – Labor, who would have otherwise voted Likud-Beiteinu, prefer now to throw their weight in favor of his potential coalition partners. This could explain why non-religious, right-wing voters who normally would be the typical Likud voters, are planning to vote for Jewish Home, a religious party.

Then there’s the unique personality of Naftali Bennett, who combines his knitted yarmulke with combat military service, an enviable exit as hi-tech developer, and a stint as Netanyahu’s chief of staff. His very common style, his earnestness and his magic touch in galvanizing the Jewish Home party from a 3-seat has been to the third largest party—albeit still just on paper—have ignited the imagination of secular Israelis who are not hostile to their own national tradition.

Moreover, Bennett insists on saying only good things about his former boss, Netanyahu, even when provoked by the beastly Nissim Mishal on TV, who kept barking at him: But Bibi hates you, he hates your guts, he’ll never let you into his government. At Likud things were not nearly as friendly, as the ruling party’s propaganda machine spent day and night portraying Bennett as an extreme right wing wolf in the sheepskin of a benign centrist. It cost Likud between 3 and 4 votes.

About the Author: Yori Yanover has been a working journalist since age 17, before he enlisted and worked for Ba'Machane Nachal. Since then he has worked for Israel Shelanu, the US supplement of Yedioth, JCN18.com, USAJewish.com, Lubavitch News Service, Arutz 7 (as DJ on the high seas), and the Grand Street News. He has published Dancing and Crying, a colorful and intimate portrait of the last two years in the life of the late Lubavitch Rebbe, (in Hebrew), and two fun books in English: The Cabalist's Daughter: A Novel of Practical Messianic Redemption, and How Would God REALLY Vote.


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

3 Responses to “New Poll: Likud-Beiteinu Downslide Continues, Bennett Steady at 15”

  1. Chaiya Eitan says:

    What if Bennett surpasses Labor? What a coup that would be!

  2. Eli Neuberger says:

    That means she strikes out with the bases loaded!

Comments are closed.

Current Top Story
An F-16 fighter jet takes off from Ramat David air force base.
Israeli Air Strike Allegedly Kills 5 in Syrian Golan Heights
Latest Special-features Stories
Right to Left: Israeli Minister of Defense Moshe "Boogie" Ya'alon, Knesset Chairman Yuli Edelstein, President Reuven Rivlin, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his wife Sarah, Israeli Minister Ofir Akunis and Chairman of the Zionist Camp Party, Isaac Hertzog attend a ceremony marking one year since Operation Protective Edge at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem.

Israeli leaders and families of fallen IDF soldiers gather to mark one year since Operation Protective Edge in Gaza.

ICC Second Vice-President Judge Kuniko Ozaki, in the presence of the President of the Assembly of States Parties, H.E. Sidiki Kaba, presents Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riad Al-Malki with a special edition of the Rome Statute .

The PLO is set to file allegations of Israeli war crimes Thursday at the Int’l Criminal Court.

IDF soldier peers into a cross-border tunnel, July 18, 2014

Foreign Ministry, NGO Monitor cite bias, “unreliable sources” in The Schabes Report released by UN.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

PM Netanyahu notes UNHRC’s “singular obsession with Israel” in comments on The Schabes Report.

The 36-page Schabes Report Summary on the Hamas War Against Israel in Gaza

Gaza soccer groups tout their teams as kidnappers of IDF soldiers

Bensouda suggested it was in “the best interest” of Hamas and Israel to provide the needed information.

The primary road block is the position that Bayit Yehudi party head Naftali Bennett will receive.

Marzel not sorry Yachad party’s loss cost Bayit Yehudi seats in Knesset. Bennett accuses Netanyahu of thinking he is a sucker.

Who is Horowitz? He’s Netanyahu’s eyes and ears. He’s very close to him, literally his personal representative everywhere…

in a new report, Amnesty International charges “Gaza armed groups’ with war crimes in last summer’s Operation Protective Edge.

If there are no surprises, Netanyahu is expected to form a coalition, after some tough negotiations, with the Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Kulanu, Yisrael Beytenu, UTJ and Shas.

One wonders how many Prime Ministers Herzog envisions sitting in that one chair at the same time.

Netanyahu is expected to have 61 recommendations in his favor.

There’s much disappointment within Yesh Atid as they head into the oppositions.

Final voter counts are in, if Yachad doesn’t petition the courts over voter fraud…

More Articles from Yori Yanover
rain ATM

A Jerusalem woman is trying to hold on to her umbrella while withdrawing some cash at a Meah Shearim ATM, Sunday, March 9, 2014. The rain appeared out of the blue (which is how rain should), after a warm week that started to feel like summer. Well, it don’t feel like summer no more. Last […]

Rabbi Meir Mazuz (seen visiting a synagogue in Crown Heights, Brooklyn) declared in a public Internet psak that it is legal for a Jew to go up to temple Mount.

Needless to say, Shas, the Haredi Sefardi party, is not happy.

“The only difference between this world and the time of Meshiach is our bondage to the gentile kingdoms.”

Here’s the Israeli Navy boat INS Hanit arriving in Eilat on Saturday, March 8, 2014, after capturing the Klos C, which was carrying dozens of advanced Iranian-supplied weapons made in Syria and intended for Palestinian guerrillas in the Gaza Strip. Here’s Israeli Navy Commander Vice Admiral Ram Rotberg speaking with the INS Hanit soldiers in […]

Pat Condell has a new video out, so, sit back, have fun. By the way, Message to Offended Muslims should not be confused with Message to Off Handed Muslims. Also, I’d love to hear what he has to say about Haredim.

The description that came with this picture says: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with American actor Bette Midler during an event at the house of Hollywood producer Arnon Milchan in Hollywood on March 6, 2014. But Bette Midler is not really an actor, she’s a singer who made movies for the LGBT community and […]

We will shut them up in the campuses, we will shut them up in the high schools, we will shut them up at the 92nd St. Y.

An Israeli female soldier (because they’re better at removing babies from their homes) evacuates a baby from a settlement in Judea and Samaria some time in the recent past. I’m thinking, if the baby was angry enough, couldn’t he evacuate in return, right there in her arms? Imagine the same picture, except with a settler […]

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/new-poll-likud-beiteinu-downslide-continues-bennett-steady-at-15/2013/01/01/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: