web analytics
January 29, 2015 / 9 Shevat, 5775
 
At a Glance
News & Views
Sponsored Post


RACE TO CITY HALL

Thompson Might Push Quinn Out of Runoff Contest Vs. Weiner

“I’m betting Bill Thompson will make the runoff."
Christine Quinn is no longer the surefire candidate – in fact, she may not even be in the top-two.

Christine Quinn is no longer the surefire candidate – in fact, she may not even be in the top-two.

A few weeks ago, I had a conversation with a staunch supporter of Christine Quinn who asked me to be frank in assessing Ms. Quinn’s chances of winning the race for mayor. “To be honest, I will have to wait for the next Marist poll to see whether her poll numbers stay at 24 percent or move ahead, or they continue to slide down towards 20 percent,” I responded.

My explanation was: Since Ms. Quinn has dropped from her peak at 38 percent in January to 24 in May, Weiner’s presence as a dominant figure in the race will determine what Christine Quinn’s ceiling and floor numbers are. “If Weiner moves up at the expense of Quinn, she’s in trouble, whereas if Weiner’s standing stays still or increases at the expense of the two Bills, then the race remains wide open,” I added.

Last night, after reviewing the poll data, I recalled my assessment to my friend and another operative and all I could imagine on the other side of the phone line was a head nodding in dismay.

This morning, I came across an identical assessment, based on the May Marist Poll prior to Tuesday night’s poll, by Harry J. Enten in the UK’s Guardian. “The big news is that the poll greatly upsets the general consensus that Quinn is a near lock to make the runoff. Quinn is at her weakest point in the past year,” he writes. “Quinn’s favorable numbers have, if you believe Quinnipiac, been falling among Democrats all year. She had a 64% favorable rating in January, 61% in February, 52% by late April, and will likely have 50% by late May.. What’s important to note here is that when controlling for pollsters, Quinn’s favorables have been falling steadily.”

More serious than just the tumbling favorables, Quinn’s current support is soft. In the Marist poll, only 30% of her voters strongly support her. In contrast, 39% of the overall electorate supports some candidate strongly, meaning Quinn has unusually dispassionate support. Weiner, meanwhile, who some thought was an anomaly of pure name recognition, has a far more fervent support: 43% of Weiner’s voters say they are strongly behind him.. The racial makeup of Quinn’s coalition suggests she’ll have further trouble. I’ve long argued that Quinn’s coalition is a house of cards built on support from minority voters, and that the strategy doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. She’s undermined by her own history, as when she blocked paid sick leave for an extended period, and she’s taken heat from minority groups for her position on stop-and-frisk. Quinn’s largely seen as something of an heir to the mayoralty of Mike Bloomberg, whose approval rating is at 49% among Democrats, but only at 42% among Latinos and 40% among African Americans. Quinn, on the other hand, scores 22% among white voters, 31% among Latinos and 26% among African Americans.

Thus, Enden confidently predicts: “I’m betting Bill Thompson will make the runoff. Per my math, a little less than half of Thompson’s supporters are with him strongly – far ahead of Quinn. He’s also a black candidate in a primary that is going to be near 30% African American, and New York City mayoral elections tend to break on ethnic and racial lines.. Bill Thompson is likely going to do better than polls suggest, and most of his untapped support is likely to come at Christine Quinn’s expense. Therefore, Quinn’s 24% may actually be closer to the ceiling than the floor of her support.”

“Given that Weiner’s support has been surprisingly strong, I don’t expect his numbers to fall much. That means that the first round of voting could result in a near tie between Quinn, Thompson and Weiner. In that scenario, Quinn could end up with the short end of the stick, and not in the runoff at all,” Enten concludes.

With last night’s poll showing Quinn’s drop in the polls is yet to be stopped, Enten’s bet and my assessment are vindicated, with the remaining weeks still to determine whether it is Weiner vs. Quinn, Thompson vs. Quinn or rather the shock of all times – Weiner vs. Thompson, in the runoff.

About the Author: Jacob Kornbluh is described as an up and coming Orthodox Jewish Blogger, writing about Local, national and Israeli politics, and a freelance reporter for various publications. Kornbluh's work has been featured in Haaretz, the NY Times, local blogs, and on local Jewish Radio, Kornbluh also covers the NYC 2013 mayoral race in general and a focus on the Jewish vote in particular at: http://nymayor.blogspot.com. Follow Jacob on Twitter @jacobkornbluh and his daily blog: jacobkornbluh.com


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

No Responses to “Thompson Might Push Quinn Out of Runoff Contest Vs. Weiner”

Comments are closed.

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Current Top Story
IDF soldiers evacuating wounded near northern border town of Ghajar.
Northern Golan Heights Declared Closed Military Zone
Latest News Stories
Hezbollah shooting at Har Dov

9:31pm The Mt. Hermon ski resort on the Golan Heights will be open for business tomorrow morning — having receiving permission from the IDF. 8:03pm Channel 2 reports that Hezbollah terror cell was located 5 kilometers from Israel, and not within Israel as originally thought.Soldiers in 2nd vehicle were saved after they jumped out of […]

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at a security assessment with Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz and other security heads at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced Wednesday night that “whoever is behind today’s attack will pay the full price.”

Gazans getting supplies from UNRWA in Rafah.

The Gazans are protesting the freeze in the money transfer from the UN for rehabilitating their region.

Israel's President Ruby Rivlin

Rivlin returning early to Israel from US trip due to situation in northern Israel.

The soldiers were part of an IDF convoy that was using a civilian road, one that hundreds of civilians use on a daily basis.

The GOC Northern Command declares Israel’s northern border with Syria in the Golan Heights to be a closed military zone.

The names of the IDF soldiers killed by Hezbollah at Mount Dov on Wednesday have been released for publication.

Lebanese Hezbollah supporters celebrate IDF deaths Wednesday by giving sweets to motorists.

Two IDF soldiers were killed by Iranian-backed Hezbollah in the most serious attack on Israel since the start of Syria’s civil war.

Soldiers hit in missile attack were patrolling in non-armored jeeps.

Arab brother, sister were apparently planning attack.

The Spanish Ministry of Defense has confirmed that rockets were fired first at Israel from Lebanon, provoking IDF into retaliation.

The IDF announced that two Israeli soldiers were killed as a result of the Hezbollah terror attack earlier today.

One UNIFIL soldier is dead in the wake of an attack on Israel by Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group.

Jordan has caved to ISIS and agreed to swap a terrorist prisoner for its hostage pilot.

More Articles from Jacob Kornbluh
Judge Shira Scheindlin was taken out to the woodshed by the federal court.

Lhota loves the stop-and-frisk court ruling, de Blasio ‘disappointed.’

Bill de Blassio is expected to win the mayoral race by 40 percentage points.

Lhota admitted that he couldn’t pronounce the term “metzitzah b’peh,” an issue of concern that was brought up several times throughout the day.

“Did you miss me?” Lhota responded with a devilish smirk when asked by a Capital New York reporter about his new aggressive style.

Bill de Blasio may well be measuring the drapes of Gracie Mansion as a new poll shows him with a commanding 44 point lead.

Lhota: “David Koch’s beliefs on social issues are no different than mine or my opponent’s when it comes to women’s choice and women’s issues and other issues like that.”

Thompson brushed off suggestions that having D’Amato stumping for him tarnished his liberal credentials.

“The accusation that I said I’m going to target the Jewish community is an outright lie.”

The Lhota campaign email against Catsimatidis quickly switched to a fund-raising plea.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/thompson-might-push-quinn-out-of-runoff-contest-vs-weiner/2013/06/28/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: