Half of Israel will be buried under snow by Friday if weather models are confirmed by the real stuff on Thursday, Friday and Shabbat.
First, the excuses.
Weather models are not forecasts, the difference being a matter of time. As we have written before, weather, politics and everything in Israel is unpredictable, except for the eternal faith that the Jewish state will survive.
It is unusual that different weather models reach the same conclusion four days before the due date of a weather system to arrive, but that is what has happened this time around.
Weather forecasters have had their fingers burned several times by relying on weather models that were a “sure bet,” only to stare at the maps in shock 24 hours before the “due date” and watch the clouds take a U-turn, or depending on your political viewpoint when looking at the maps, a left or right turn.
One weather buff wrote on the Tapuz forum in Israel, “There is agreement among all the models for this to happen. The expectation is so extreme that even if it becomes more moderate and temperatures are one degree or so warmer than expected, snow will fall at levels of 800 meters,” which would include Jerusalem.
According to current models, snow will accumulate as low as 300 meters, which would include the Lower Galilee and western Samaria, including Karnei-Ginot Shomron. Snow might fall, without accumulation, in lower areas.
Danny Roop, Israel’s premier snow forecaster, wrote on Facebook, “All models show clear signs of serious snow that will accumulate Thursday night through Shabbat, including Jerusalem and all lower places.”
For the time being, we are talking about 4-10 inches of snow.
Remember, these are weather models and not a forecast, but this time around, it would be well-advised to stock up ahead of time – and keep praying for “rain,” the word in the prayer liturgy that we can dare includes snow.
As for today through Wednesday, it will be mostly cloudy and cold, with a possibility of very light rain in the north tonight and Tuesday.
Rain will begin to fall Wednesday morning in the north and spread to the center, accompanied by a sharp drop in temperatures that will prelude the white stuff at night and during the next three days,
The run-off from mountain streams to the Sea of Galilee (Kinneret) is increasing, and assuming this week’s forecast will be realized, most of the 12-foot gap between current levels and flood levels will be erased before the end of the winter.