web analytics
July 7, 2015 / 20 Tammuz, 5775
At a Glance
News & Views
Sponsored Post


Poll: Right to Win 73 Seats, Jewish Home 17.5, Power to Israel 6

The poll numbers are shaky, but if they held until elections, even with the Likud-Beytenu's drop in seats, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would still most likely form Israel's next government.
Jewish Home Chairman Naftali Bennett.

Jewish Home Chairman Naftali Bennett.
Photo Credit: Yoav Ari Dudkevitch/Flash90

If Knesset elections were held today, the Likud-Beytenu list would receive 35 Knesset seats and the Jewish Home (HaBayit HaYehudi) party would receive 17.5 seats, making it the third largest party in the Knesset, right on the heals of the Labor party which would receive 18 seats, according to a poll commissioned by Israel’s Reshet Bet.

Strength to Israel, the offshoot from the National Union following the latter’s merger with the Jewish Home, would receive a 6 seats, a shocking result as other polls have shown that Strength to Israel would not even pass the threshold to enter the Knesset.  Shas would drop to 8 seats, and UTJ would get 6.5 seats.

That would give the Israeli Right 73 seats in the next Knesset. Am Shalem, the party of ousted Shas MK Rabbi Haim Amsalem, would not enter the next Knesset.

While the poll shows a drop of seven seats for Likud-Beytenu, it shows the joint list may be nearing the end of its free fall from the 42 seats it currently maintains in the Knesset,  as 72 percent of those who said they were voting in favor were sure about their vote, higher than any other party except United Torah Judaism and two Arab parties, Chadash and Ra’am Ta’al.

Fifty-nine percent of those who said they were voting for the Jewish Home were sure about their vote and only 33 percent were sure about their support of Strength to Israel, by far the lowest level of certainty among supporters of any other party.

On the Left, the Labor party would be Israel’s second largest party with 18 seats, Tzipi Livni’s the Movement would get 6 and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid would get 5. Meretz would receive 7.

The three Arab lists Chadash, Balad and Ra’am Ta’al would receive 11 seats between them.

The poll also asked Israelis if they were “for or against the view that two states for two peoples was the desired solution for a peace agreement with the Palestinians.”

A plurality, 45.4% said they were opposed, while only 40.6% said they were in favor. Fourteen percent did not answer or were unsure.

The poll of 500 potential voters was conducted by Geocartographia by telephone yesterday and had a 4.2 percent margin of error.

The previous poll by Geocartographia showed Labor receiving a low 14 seats an anomaly among almost all other polls. That last poll, conducted December 24th, 2012, also showed Shas receiving 12 seats, four more than the recent poll.

If the numbers shown by the most recent poll are accurate and hold until elections, that would ostensibly give the Right 73 seats and leave the Left 47.

Recent sparring between the Likud and Shas since the return of Aryeh Deri and Netanyahu’s recent statement that he would want the Likud to retain the Ministry of Housing and Construction – currently held by Shas – however, leaves roomto doubt whether Shas will be included in a Netanyahu-led coalition.

The Strength to Israel party is also viciously anti-Netanyahu due to his Bar Ilan speech, the settlement freeze, and the destruction of several unauthorized outposts and the eviction of whole neighborhoods in Judea and Samaria where it was claimed that the property belonged to private Palestinians.

In addition, the UTJ has in the past sat in government on the Left and agrees with the Left on a variety of social and defense issues.

Nevertheless, no government has ever been formed with an Arab party. Practically, the Left’s initial potential for a coalition is 35 seats. In addition Yair Lapid (5 seats) has indicated he would join a coalition with Netanyahu and Tzipi Livni (6 seats) has not ruled out that possibility.

For Labor to form a government, party chairwoman Shelly Yachimovitch would have to make the leap of including three Arab parties in its coalition and convince Shas and UTJ to sit in that government, all while keeping Livni and Lapid behind her. That unlikely scenario would only result in a weak coalition of 61.5 seats, according to the polls numbers.

That means that even with the Likud-Beytenu’s drop in seats, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is on track to forming Israel’s next government.

Meanwhile, Yisrael Beytenu Chairman MK Avigdor Liberman said he believes the case against him is weak, that he will be cleared of all charges and that he believes the joint Likud-Beytenu list will receive 40 seats in the Knesset.

About the Author:


If you don't see your comment after publishing it, refresh the page.

Our comments section is intended for meaningful responses and debates in a civilized manner. We ask that you respect the fact that we are a religious Jewish website and avoid inappropriate language at all cost.

If you promote any foreign religions, gods or messiahs, lies about Israel, anti-Semitism, or advocate violence (except against terrorists), your permission to comment may be revoked.

One Response to “Poll: Right to Win 73 Seats, Jewish Home 17.5, Power to Israel 6”

  1. Anonymous says:

    I want to believe this but I'll wait until I see some confirmation from other polls before I start celebrating. Otzma with 6 seats seems suspect. Does Otzma even have six candidates on their list? I can definitely believe Jewish Home having an increasing number of seats at Likud's expense. The center-left dropping off slightly from Lapid and Livni seems reasonable due to general disillusionment with the "Peace Process". I can also believe Shas losing some support due to Deri's return; Yishai is much more popular. Plus Am Shalem is taking 10,000s of Shas votes away even if that party ends up with zero seats. This polling agency seems a little inaccurate historically. I won't make the same mistake as I did during the US presidential elections and trust isolated polls; my hope that this is true can't affect my skepticism.

Comments are closed.

Current Top Story
Muslims pray in front of the Dome of the Rock on the Temple Mount compound known to Muslims as al-Haram al-Sharif during Ramadan in the Old City of Jerusalem.
No Entry to Jews on Temple Mount for 10 Days
Latest News Stories
Muslims pray in front of the Dome of the Rock on the Temple Mount compound known to Muslims as al-Haram al-Sharif during Ramadan in the Old City of Jerusalem.

The Temple Mount is closed to Jews and others for the next 10 days for Islamic observances.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei

Iran expert predicts there will be no signed deal because Iran already feels it can get all it wants without one.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Russian FM Lavrov met in Vienna with Iran’s Zarif in an unsuccessful bid to break a deadlock in nuclear talks.

Israeli Minister of Agriculture Uri Ariel  takes in the annual cherry picking festival at kibbutz Rosh Tzurim in Gush Etzion.

When it comes down to it, it’s really about the milk. Minister Ariel just cut the price by nearly 5 percent.

The IDF plans to form a new elite commando unit.

Israeli leaders and families of fallen IDF soldiers gather to mark one year since Operation Protective Edge in Gaza.

Tel Aviv has closed a deal to build its Light Rail with a Chinese firm that is doing business with Iran.

F.A.O. Schwarz is closing its iconic flagship store on NYC’s Fifth Avenue due to rising rent prices.

Some Chareidi Jews wore sackcloth (and probably ashes) yesterday, while praying at the Kotel on the 17th of Tammuz, a fast day.

The Shin Bet arrested six Negev Bedouin as budding members of a new ISIS terror cell.

The EU is warned that terrorists infiltrating among migrants via the Mediterranean Sea.

“Unfortunately, there are those who seek to exploit the sanctity of Ramadan, and distort its meaning in favor of … terrorism.”

In his first public comments following the tenure extension crisis, Rabbi Riskin delivered up some harsh criticism of the Chief Rabbinate.

Instead of accepting reality, the President is trying to hold on to an illusion.

He wants to show everything is “business as usual,” which everyone knows is not.

The Palestinian Authority Jawwal mobile phone company is back in business in Gaza after Hamas allowed it to resume operations following last week’s forced shutdown. Hamas claimed that Jawwal, part of the Paltel conglomerate run b one of Mahmoud Abbas’ closest confidantes, owed taxes. The terrorist organization did not explain why it was allowing Jawaal […]

More Articles from Jewish Press Staff
Oketz is the IDF elite canine unit, trained to operate in every combat contingency.

The IDF plans to form a new elite commando unit.

Even in our local solar system there are numerous moons and planets for a celestial traveler to choose from.

Israeli physician Dr. Yuval Rabinovich reviews possible reasons ‘why we have never met aliens.’

Students from around the world participated in a Jewish Roots art project; winners gathered in Tel Aviv on Sunday.

Widening “Highway 1″ has unearthed the church, oil lamps, a mosaic floor and mother-of-pearl shells.

Bennett preached unity, but Herzog scolded him for crossing the “red line” in the elections.

Iran tried to buy UN-banned products in the Czech Republic but was caught and stopped, Reuters reports exclusively.

Special needs artists showed their talent at Jewish Children’s Museum on Mother’s Day in New York.

The test was planned, but the Defense Ministry is mum on details.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel/poll-right-would-win-73-seats-jewish-home-17-5-and-strength-to-israel-6/2013/01/03/

Scan this QR code to visit this page online: