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May 4, 2015 / 15 Iyar, 5775
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GOING RED

Swing State Report: NC, VA, Leaning Romney


Snapshot_091212

You’ll notice that I added North Carolina to the list of swing states. This is because the Romeny camp has declared it as such, probably not a minute too soon. With its 15 delegates, North Carolina broke McCain’s heart in 2008 and went for the Democrats. It’s good to know someone in the Romney camp is doing some thinking.

You’ll also note that Virginia this morning is leaning Republican, but well within the margin of error. Virginia will remain a tight race all the way to November.

We still don’t have a recent, reliable poll on Iowa. There’s only a Democratic campaign poll from 8/23-26, giving Obama 47% vs. 45% to Romney. Iowa also awarded its 7 delegates to Obama in 2008, but, like North Carolina, it should go Republican, all things being equal. Like Indiana, which went for Obama in ’08 (11 delegates). Today, Indiana is leaning Republican, and the universe is that much closer to equilibrium….

So, the swing states are still mostly going to Obama, but with some data seriously missing, and with margins that shouldn’t let the Democrats take a rest, nor fill Republican hearts with despair.

Stay tuned.

 

91212
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/22 – 9/9 48.3 46.3 Obama +2.0
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
North Carolina 15 8/22 – 9/9 45.5 49 Romney +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 9/9 46.5 47.3 Romney +0.8
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
91112
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
91012
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
90912
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/9 – 9/2 47.8 45.5 Obama +2.3
Florida 29 8/13 – 9/2 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/13 – 9/2 46.2 45.5 Obama +0.7
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4

 

About the Author: Yori Yanover has been a working journalist since age 17, before he enlisted and worked for Ba'Machane Nachal. Since then he has worked for Israel Shelanu, the US supplement of Yedioth, JCN18.com, USAJewish.com, Lubavitch News Service, Arutz 7 (as DJ on the high seas), and the Grand Street News. He has published Dancing and Crying, a colorful and intimate portrait of the last two years in the life of the late Lubavitch Rebbe, (in Hebrew), and two fun books in English: The Cabalist's Daughter: A Novel of Practical Messianic Redemption, and How Would God REALLY Vote.


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5 Responses to “Swing State Report: NC, VA, Leaning Romney”

  1. Jerry Hersch says:

    Many of the swing states are also very Evangelical Christian.Evangelical Christians Say they are supporters of Israel -this does not mean they are supporters of Jews.
    Joe Straus a Texas Republican Jew was elected Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives. Evangelical Christian Republican legislators were against having a Jew in this position.Far more were against Straus than the final tally. All those against Straus because he is Jewish were also outspoken supporters of Israel.

    http://www.jta.org/news/article/2011/01/11/2742509/straus-reelected-speaker-notes-attacks-on-faith

  2. Amy Dockery says:

    I go to a church near Nashville, Tennessee with a membership of 8000. I have NEVER heard anyone make a distinction between Israel and the Jewish people. It's like saying, I love Canada but not Canadians…. Let me make this clear. We Christians love the Jewish people and pray for the peace of Jerusalem daily. The Jews begot our Christ… Mary was a Jew! The Jews befriended our Christ… The disciples were Jews! Jesus said, "No one takes my live, I lay it down"…(As the final Attonement for sin spoken of in Isaiah 53….) So NO, neither the Jews nor the Romans were responsible for the death of Christ! His death was fortold and pre-ordained. How can we not love the Jewish people and Israel? Any so called Christian who hates the Jews is NOT an authentic Christ follower. Period! God bless, keep and protect the Jewish people, who are FOREVER the apple of His eye. (And may God bless your Prime Minister and grant him Divine wisdom, guidance, and strength..)

  3. Amy Dockery says:

    I go to a church near Nashville, Tennessee with a membership of 8000. I have NEVER heard anyone make a distinction between Israel and the Jewish people. It's like saying, I love Canada but not Canadians…. Let me make this clear. We Christians love the Jewish people and pray for the peace of Jerusalem daily. The Jews begot our Christ… Mary was a Jew! The Jews befriended our Christ… The disciples were Jews! Jesus said, "No one takes my life, I lay it down"…(As the final Attonement for sin spoken of in Isaiah 53….) So NO, neither the Jews nor the Romans were responsible for the death of Christ! His death was fortold and pre-ordained. How can we not love the Jewish people and Israel? Any so called Christian who hates the Jews is NOT an authentic Christ follower. Period! God bless, keep and protect the Jewish people, who are FOREVER the apple of His eye. (And may God bless your Prime Minister and grant him Divine wisdom, guidance, and strength.)

  4. Lynda Munsey says:

    God is the One who ordained His death so that we can be saved! He paid the sin debt & the others involved in the death of Christ (Romans & Jews) were the instruments God used to make it happen!

  5. Amy Dockery says:

    Well if you think about it, He died for the sins of each one of us…. So we all played a role in His death. But as you said, it was God's plan. But He makes it very clear, that we are to always bless His people and pray for their peace and welfare… Our church is taking a tour to Israel next summer. I would LOVE to go!!

Comments are closed.

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