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GOING RED

Swing State Report: NC, VA, Leaning Romney



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You’ll notice that I added North Carolina to the list of swing states. This is because the Romeny camp has declared it as such, probably not a minute too soon. With its 15 delegates, North Carolina broke McCain’s heart in 2008 and went for the Democrats. It’s good to know someone in the Romney camp is doing some thinking.

You’ll also note that Virginia this morning is leaning Republican, but well within the margin of error. Virginia will remain a tight race all the way to November.

We still don’t have a recent, reliable poll on Iowa. There’s only a Democratic campaign poll from 8/23-26, giving Obama 47% vs. 45% to Romney. Iowa also awarded its 7 delegates to Obama in 2008, but, like North Carolina, it should go Republican, all things being equal. Like Indiana, which went for Obama in ’08 (11 delegates). Today, Indiana is leaning Republican, and the universe is that much closer to equilibrium….

So, the swing states are still mostly going to Obama, but with some data seriously missing, and with margins that shouldn’t let the Democrats take a rest, nor fill Republican hearts with despair.

Stay tuned.

 

91212
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/22 – 9/9 48.3 46.3 Obama +2.0
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
North Carolina 15 8/22 – 9/9 45.5 49 Romney +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 9/9 46.5 47.3 Romney +0.8
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
91112
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
91012
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/13 – 9/2 48.7 45.3 Obama +3.4
Florida 29 8/15 – 9/2 48.5 46.8 Obama +1.7
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/15 – 9/9 47.6 45.4 Obama +2.2
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4
90912
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/9 – 9/2 47.8 45.5 Obama +2.3
Florida 29 8/13 – 9/2 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 8/12 48.3 44.8 Obama +3.5
Ohio 18 8/13 – 9/2 46.2 45.5 Obama +0.7
Virginia 13 8/13 – 8/23 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4

 

 

Yori Yanover

About the Author: Yori Yanover has been a working journalist since age 17, before he enlisted and worked for Ba'Machane Nachal. Since then he has worked for Israel Shelanu, the US supplement of Yedioth, JCN18.com, USAJewish.com, Lubavitch News Service, Arutz 7 (as DJ on the high seas), and the Grand Street News. He has published Dancing and Crying, a colorful and intimate portrait of the last two years in the life of the late Lubavitch Rebbe, (in Hebrew), and two fun books in English: The Cabalist's Daughter: A Novel of Practical Messianic Redemption, and How Would God REALLY Vote.

The author's opinion does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Jewish Press.

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