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THE RACE

Swing States: Obama Ahead Everywhere but N. Carolina

There's only one bit of good news for the Romney campaign in the all-important swing state polls this weekend.

swing states 091612

There’s only one bit of good news for the Romney campaign in the all-important swing state polls this weekend: their choice to pour a lot of ad money into North Carolina, to prevent it from going Democrat, is paying off.

Everywhere else, the president seems to either keep his lead—small though it may be—or pull ahead.

The polls are yet to reflect voters’ reaction to Obama’s handling of the Middle East storm over the anti-Muslim video clip and the killing of four consulate workers, including the ambassador. It’s possible, however, that Obama’s apparent hesitation in reacting to the upheaval would be balanced out by Romney’s attack on the president while the flames were still consuming the Benghazi mission.

In Virginia, Romney is probably paying for the governor’s attempt to pass a law to make the running of abortion clinics in the state practically impossible. This is not very popular with Virginia women voters, who favor Obama over Romney right now by a margin of 14 points. This explains the significant jump in Obama’s lead in Virginia.

The delegate map I enclosed presumes that Obama and Romney win all the states where they currently lead. It’s only a snapshot, obviously, but it appears that Romney is unable to catch up, so far, and, in a couple of cases—as in Ohio and Colorado—he is losing ground.

 

91612
State # Delegates Poll Dates Obama Romney Spraed
Colorado 9 8/31 – 9/12 48.3 45.3 Obama +3.0
Florida 29 8/31 – 9/12 47.8 46.5 Obama +1.3
Iowa 6 5/22 – 8/26 45 44.8 Obama +0.2
Nevada 6 7/24 – 8/26 49 45.7 Obama +3.3
New Hampshire 4 6/20 – 9/10 47.3 43.3 Obama +4.0
North Carolina 15 8/25 – 9/13 49.8 49.8 Romney +4.8
Ohio 18 9/7 – 9/12 48.5 44.3 Obama +4.2
Virginia 13 9/8 – 9/13 47.3 47 Obama +0.3
Wisconsin 10 8/13 – 8/21 48.2 46.8 Obama +1.4

 

About the Author: Yori Yanover has been a working journalist since age 17, before he enlisted and worked for Ba'Machane Nachal. Since then he has worked for Israel Shelanu, the US supplement of Yedioth, JCN18.com, USAJewish.com, Lubavitch News Service, Arutz 7 (as DJ on the high seas), and the Grand Street News. He has published Dancing and Crying, a colorful and intimate portrait of the last two years in the life of the late Lubavitch Rebbe, (in Hebrew), and two fun books in English: The Cabalist's Daughter: A Novel of Practical Messianic Redemption, and How Would God REALLY Vote.


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9 Responses to “Swing States: Obama Ahead Everywhere but N. Carolina”

  1. Carey Frisch says:

    C'mon Carolinians, ya'll know Willard Mitt Romney was a draft-dodger during the Vietnam War era! Why in the heck would you support him?

  2. Texas is still a possibility for President Obama. Don't give up faith or effort.

  3. Brenda Walker says:

    Let me guess you are a Clinton fan?

  4. Brenda Walker says:

    People in Texas aren't that stupid

  5. Michele Hallet says:

    Brenda Walker They certainly are when you have a governor like Ricky boy and somehow put your trust in a man like The MIttster who is incapable of telling the truth about pretty much anything. Which one of Robme's policies benefit you??? Clueless DRONE

  6. Here is what I found in another Jewish paper an imagined Obama letter on truth serum to the Jewish people.
    From: President Barak Obama.

    To: The people of Israel.

    OK, we need to talk.

    I’m really, really miffed by all of the bad press I’ve been getting in Israel lately and in the Jewish-American media. I’ve had it with you people. Here I am working hard to repair my image among Jewish American voters, and working overtime scrubbing away all that graffiti you guys have been spraying all over my hallowed name, and there you are dissing me and making faces. You see, I’m heavily engaged in a transparently cynical “charm offensive” to court the Jewish vote, and at least be seen taking back or regretting all those bad things I said about Israel and your PM that got me into this fix in the first place. Working rope lines, attending conferences, dinners, and speaking engagements with Jewish organizations—you just have no idea how convincingly I can laugh and smile through gritted teeth when my reelection is at stake.

    So why all the hassle? Well, apparently, some of you were confused by my strong embrace of decisive action against Iran’s nuclear program at my speech before AIPAC, only to then watch that position totally undermined by a flood of leaks from my surrogates expressing deep reservations about a possible military strike, and painting your Prime Minister as an unhinged war monger who wants to blow up the Middle East and destabilize the world economy. But you shouldn’t be confused. Heck, I do that kind of thing all the time. You see, this allows me to publicly embrace a policy or a position that it’s not in my interest to oppose, or be seen opposing, while my underlings then carefully proceed to undermine it by slowly leaking it to death. That way I can be both for and against something, please everyone, and avoid the kind of difficult, unpopular decisions that will get me into trouble with independent voters this coming November. For those in favor of a strike against Iran, my aides and media surrogates can point to my speech. For those against, they can explain, sotto voce, via the leaks, what I really meant. See how that works? This gives me flexibility. You know, the kind of flexibility that I told that boy-flunkie Medvedev to tell Vladimir Putin that I’ll have, after I’m reelected?

    Anyway, you guys need to cool it on Iran. Sure, Iran’s a headache, but the real problem is you people and all your loose talk and itchy trigger fingers. And, of course, there’s the settlements. Yep. You heard me. If only you Israelis would stop your stupid settlement building in places that are going to be part of Israel in any event, all would be well and there would be the peace. I’ve known this for a long time; my friend Rashid Kalhidi told me so.

    He also told me about what you Israelis have been getting away with all of these years while being appeased by those wacky neo-cons in the Bush administration. You guys have had quite a ride, and think you’ve got it made here. You act like you own the joint. Well, I got news for the Jews: I’m president now and you’re not; Bush is now president of his Crawford ranch, and Cheney, well, don’t get me started on that war-mongering, water-boarding, neo-con troll, or I may never stop. Suffice to say, he can rot.

    I’ve had it up to here with all your settlement building and occupation and checkpoint shenanigans. And please, enough with all the talk about Syria. I’m sick to death with hearing about it and I’ve heard it all before: blah, blah, blah. I’ve got other things to worry about, namely, how I’m going to pretend to be concerned about the deficit in the upcoming budget negotiations with House Speaker Boehner, while at the same time burdening the economy with higher taxes and more entitlement spending. Try dealing with that.

    Now, my advisers tell me that making the kind of statements I’ve just made will anger pro-Israel members in Congress and, of course, the folks in the all-powerful Israel lobby. Stephen Walt can explain.

    And since I don’t intend to be put into early retirement this November, I’ll make the perfunctory, happy-face, pro-Israel token statement I promised my pollsters and advisers I would make.

    Here goes: Israel is a great country and a wonderful friend.

    There, I said it. Happy now?

    Shalom!

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