The Looming Catastrophe,Editorial Board

Evidence mounts that the U.S.-sponsored international peace conference on the Middle East planned for November is a looming disaster for Israel.

Israel is being maneuvered into agreeing to "final status" concessions to the Palestinians in return for a palpably empty Palestinian commitment to forgo violence. Israeli commitments will be written in stone while Palestinians will be able to claim inability to deliver and also insist on an upward revision because of a recalcitrant Hamas.

Despite Prime Minister Olmert's insistence that current discussions with the PA's Mahmoud Abbas will not result in any agreements on core issues, and public assurances that the Road Map stipulation that terror be eliminated as a precondition to any substantive discussions still stands, the facts seem otherwise.

Citing the comments of an Israeli official, the Associated Press reported Tuesday that Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas discussed the borders of a Palestinian state and Israel's relinquishing of land, the right of return for Palestinian refugees, and the status of Jerusalem. These issues have long been described as key to the Israel-Palestinian dispute and this is the first time they've been discussed in depth by the two leaders. (The U.S. has been pressuring Israel and the Palestinians to make significant progress on these issues in advance of the November conference.)

So, as now seems clear, by the time the November conference is convened Israel will not only have unilaterally released convicted terrorists and granted amnesty to those it still sought as gestures to build up Mr. Abbas, it will also have unilaterally agreed to a Palestinian state with defined borders, the sharing of Jerusalem, and the right of Palestinian return to Israel.

Essentially, all the Palestinians will do is agree to stop killing Jews - a promise at all events subject to the vagaries of the relative strength between Abbas and Hamas, even if one were to make the leap of faith and trust in Mr. Abbas's intentions.

Significantly, both Mr. Abbas and PA Prime Minister Fayyad miss no opportunity to declare that they plan no military confrontation with Hamas. Rather, they say, they will seek political rapprochement.

Moreover, does anyone really think that, given its stunning victory over Mr. Abbas and Fatah in Gaza and its growing strength on the West Bank, Hamas will simply accept a docile, subservient role to Abbas/Fatah?

Consider also that the IDF' deputy chief of staff, Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, said this week that Hamas has sent hundreds of its fighters abroad for military training. Gen. Kaplinsky also said Hamas is building an army in Gaza on the model of Hizbullah in Lebanon, constructing positions, fortifications and tunnels for fighting and smuggling explosives, anti-tank weapons and sophisticated rockets through the Egyptian desert.

We go back to the words of Rudy Giuliani cited here last week:

Too much emphasis has been placed on brokering negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians - negotiations that bring up the same issues again and again. It is not in the interest of the United States, at a time when it is being threatened by Islamist terrorists, to assist the creation of another state that will support terrorism. Palestinian statehood will have to be earned through sustained good governance, a clear commitment to fighting terrorism, and a willingness to live in peace with Israel.

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The Looming Catastrophe , Editorial Board