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April 21, 2014 / 21 Nisan, 5774
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Posts Tagged ‘Arab parties’

Poll: Likud Shooting Back Up, Livni Sinking

Thursday, January 17th, 2013

It was bound to happen: Traditional Likud-Beitenu voters have been shopping around for better options, such as Jewish Home, not because they don’t identify with the Likud’s platform, but because they fear that Prime Minister Netanyahu might turn his back on the same platform, as he has been known to do. That mistrust was only enhanced by the fact that Netanyahu’s partner, Avigdor Liberman, is also not particularly committed to the vision of a greater Israel and the rejection of a Palestinian state. (Liberman’s legal woes couldn’t have helped, either).

But in the end, as the threats of a resurgence of the left-wing parties was becoming a reality, and the possibility of a left-led coalition government was being bandied about, many Likud-Beitenu are coming back to the mother ship. Much like American voters being forced to vote for the lesser of evils, rather than for a “shining city on the hill” candidate, the majority of right-wing Israelis will dig up a laundry clip to affix to their noses, and vote Likud-Beitenu.

Or so it turns out from the poll conducted for the news and public affairs radio channel Reshet Bet by Maagar Mochot (The name literally means “a collection of brains” and can be loosely translated as “think tank”), with a sample of 706 likely voters, with a 4.5% margin of error.

This margin of error translates into more than 5 Knesset seats, which could mean that parties that did not cross the two-seat blocking percentage will make it, while others that appear here to have squeezed through will end up outside. So this poll, like every poll, is but a snapshot of voter sentiment today – except that the closer we get to next Tuesday, Election Day, the more these numbers will start getting nailed in place.

So, with all of that in mind, here are the numbers:

Likud-Beitenu – 37

Labor – 16

Jewish Home – 13

Shas – 11

Yair Lapid – 9

Torah Judaism – 6

Meretz – 6

Tzipi Livni – 5

Kadima – 3

Power for Israel – 3

3 Arab lists – 10

Rabbi Amsalem – 1 (fails the blocking percentage)

These numbers confirm that the left wing Jewish parties are on their way out, amounting to a mere 39 seats, or 32.5% of the overall population. The Arabs, with 10 seats, or just over 8% of the population. That makes right wing and Haredi parties a seemingly insurmountable, 71-seat block, accounting for better than 59% of the overall population, and a staggering 65%, give or take, of the Jewish adult population.

It is safe to say that Israel has never been more right wing or more religious in its history, and such percentages would take more than a generation to reverse.

So, Bibi will be the next prime minister, and from these figures he should be able to cobble together a solid right-wing coalition in half and hour, even without having to invite the “bad boys” of Israel’s right wing politics from Power for Israel, Aryeh Eldad and Michael Ben Ari.

The only winner from this severe drop in the power of the left is Meretz, which, unlike the rest of the Jewish leftist parties has never denied its leftist identity. And it paid off: as soon as left wing voters realized the right will stay in charge next Tuesday, they abandoned Labor, Livni and Lapid, who have been denying their leftist agenda, describing themselves as “centrist” – in favor of a truly leftist party.

Sadly, his renewed strength (although Likud-Beitenu is still going to receive fewer seats than its current 42) would also enable Bibi to avoid Bennett and Jewish Home, partnering instead with Shas, Torah Judaism and Yair Lapid.

And the fact that Yair Lapid is the Haredi-hater’s Haredi hater should not keep everybody involved from living long and prospering together. Because, in the end, politics is about jobs and money. Ideology is merely the way you get them…

New Poll: Likud-Beiteinu Downslide Continues, Bennett Steady at 15

Tuesday, January 1st, 2013

And we’re off to the races with Tuesday morning’s Walla News TNS Teleseker, as the battered Likud-Beiteinu, with one leader tied behind its back with an indictment, is unable to stop the hemorrhaging of its votes to other right-wing parties. And so, had the elections been held on Sunday, when the poll was conducted (using a sample of 500 age 18+ Israelis, with a 2 seat margin of error), Likud-Beiteinu would have dropped to 34 seats, as compared with 35 seats in the same poll a week ago.

Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home appears completely recovered from the glitch of last week’s “refusal to evacuate Jew” fiasco, and it continues to own its 15 seats, give or take, as it did in the same poll a week ago.

Shas also maintains it rise from 10 to 11 seats, and Torah Judaism’s rise from 5 to 6 seats is a fait accompli.

On the other hand, Power to Israel has dropped off the face of the Earth in this poll, a victim of the “blocking percentage” that requires a list to gain two seats before it can receive its first seat.

Except that with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 seats, it is quite possible that both Aryeh Eldad and Michael Ben Ari, the two bad boys of the Israeli right, will make it into the Knesset.

Altogether, the Likud-Beiteinu has lost 4 seats in three weeks in the Walla weekly poll, and so, even though the Right plus Haredim block maintains its 66 seat majority, Likud-Beiteinu’s share in the loot is shrinking.

On the Left things have remained about the same this week in this poll: Labor with 18, both Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid with 10 each, Meretz with 4, and Kadima is back in the race with 2 (down from its 28 seats in the previous elections). The Arab parties are down to just 10 seats from their previous projections of 12 and 11 – but that, too, is within the margin of error and the Arabs could very well end up with 12 seats.

There are a few unexpected developments reflected in this week’s poll.

First, the additional Shas seat can be explained by the anti-illegal workers sentiment among non-religious Israelis. The segment of the population that’s exposed more than any other to the phenomenon of idle African illegals loitering in their streets are working class Jews in the low income neighborhoods of the big cities, who are more likely to also be Sephardi.

Shas co-leader, Interior Minister Eli Yishai, is perceived publicly as an unabashed enemy of illegal migrants, and so, given those two factors, secular Israeli Sephardim may be feeling that their single issue would be best addressed with Shas in the government.

That brings us to the next unexpected development: paradoxically, the more secure Netanyahu appears in his future as the next prime minister, the more votes he’s going to lose. Since no one has risen to a point where they can hope to challenge Netanyahu for the top job – the more the thinking voter both on the left and on the right is going to figure out how to use their vote not to secure Netanyahu’s spot but to influence the direction of his government.

This is why both the moderate right – Jewish Home, and the moderate left – Labor, who would have otherwise voted Likud-Beiteinu, prefer now to throw their weight in favor of his potential coalition partners. This could explain why non-religious, right-wing voters who normally would be the typical Likud voters, are planning to vote for Jewish Home, a religious party.

Then there’s the unique personality of Naftali Bennett, who combines his knitted yarmulke with combat military service, an enviable exit as hi-tech developer, and a stint as Netanyahu’s chief of staff. His very common style, his earnestness and his magic touch in galvanizing the Jewish Home party from a 3-seat has been to the third largest party—albeit still just on paper—have ignited the imagination of secular Israelis who are not hostile to their own national tradition.

Moreover, Bennett insists on saying only good things about his former boss, Netanyahu, even when provoked by the beastly Nissim Mishal on TV, who kept barking at him: But Bibi hates you, he hates your guts, he’ll never let you into his government. At Likud things were not nearly as friendly, as the ruling party’s propaganda machine spent day and night portraying Bennett as an extreme right wing wolf in the sheepskin of a benign centrist. It cost Likud between 3 and 4 votes.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/new-poll-likud-beiteinu-downslide-continues-bennett-steady-at-15/2013/01/01/

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