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Posts Tagged ‘Kadima’

Amir Peretz, Formerly of Labor, Embraces Tzipi

Thursday, December 6th, 2012

Amir Peretz, former Histadrut union chief and former Defense Minister, is now a former member of the Avoda (Labor) party. He is moving over to the Movement (HaTnuah) party of Tzipi Livni (former head of Kadima, and former Foreign Minister).

Also moving over to Livni’s party is former general Elazar Stern. Stern announced on the radio that he fully supports the two-state solution. Although formerly considered center, his embrace of the two-state solution puts him squarely on the left.

Meanwhile, there are now plenty of new former Kadima members. Dalia Itzik announced her retirement from politics, and Roni Bar-On has resigned.

Dalia Itzik also implied that former PM Ehud Olmert would not be running this time around, after all the speculation that he might. For herself, Itzik has said, “Presidential hope is not dead.”

Exciting stuff.

Life with Tzipi: Likud Gaining in Wednesday’s Poll, Labor Down

Wednesday, November 28th, 2012

It appears that the net effect of Tzipi Livni’s announcement that she’s running as the head of a new movement named after her (The Movement Led by Tzipi Livni is the official name, which probably limits the possibility of competition for chairmanship there at this time) has been to drive the Likud-Beiteinu list up a little bit at the expense of both the right and the center. And, as was to be expected, Livni’s votes are siphoned off of Labor’s and Kadima’s. One winner on the left: Meretz, which continues a slow rise from its current 3 seats. Finally: Torah Judaism will definitely increase its power from 5 to 6 seats in the next Knesset, based on sheer demographics alone.

The Meretz rise, according to Haaretz which published the poll, is that leftist voters have given up on Labor’s chances to actually form a coalition government, and so they choose to vote their heart rather than compromise needlessly.

And a similar sentiment is emerging on the right, as voters, secure in a Likud-headed government, seek to bolster its right-wing flank with a vote for Power to Israel (MKs Eldad and Ben-Ari).

So here are the numbers as of this morning, Wednesday, Nov. 28:

Likud-Beiteinu: 39 (was 35, current Knesset mandate 42)

Labor: 18 (was 23, current Knesset mandate 13)

Shas: 11 (was 14, current Knesset mandate 11)

Yair Lapid: 8 (was 13, current Knesset mandate 0)

Jewish Home (NRP): 8 (was 9, current Knesset mandate 7)

Tzipi Livni: 7 (was 0, current Knesset mandate 0)

Torah Judaism: 6 (was 6, current Knesset mandate 5)

Meretz: 5 (was 4, current Knesset mandate 3)

Rabbi Amsalem: (was 3, current Knesset mandate 1)

Kadima: 2 (was 5, current Knesset mandate 28)

Eldad & Ben-Ari: 2 (was 0, current Knesset mandate 2)

Weekly Polls: Pre-Gaza Polls Give Right 66.5 Knesset Seats

Monday, November 19th, 2012

Here’s, the average of 2 polls published last week, Channel 2 and Jerusalem Post. The Post poll was conducted November 12-13 and the Channel 2 poll was published November 14.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 5 average in (brackets):

37.0 (38.0) [42] Likud Beitenu

21.5 (22.3) [08] Labor

13.0 (11.0) [--] Yesh Atid

11.0 (09.0) [07] National Union-Jewish Home

11.0 (13.0) [10] Shas

5.0 (5.6) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

4.5 (3.3) [03] Meretz

3.5 (3.6) [04] Hadash

3.5 (3.0) [03] Balad

3.0 (3.3) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

2.5 (3.6) [01] Am Shalem

2.5 (1.6) [05] Independence

2.0 (2.3) [28] Kadima

66.5 (69) [65] Right

53.5 (51) [55] Center-Left

Visit KnessetJeremy.com.

Weekly Israeli Poll Avg: Likud-Beteinu at 38; Labor at 22; Right would earn 69 total seats.

Sunday, November 11th, 2012

Quick Take: This week’s average shows Likud Beitenu and Labor position similar to last week. Shas gains and takes the third position while Lapid’s Yesh Atid drops and falls into the fourth position. Hadash passes Meretz, while Kadima and Independence pick up gains. Am Shalem is also picking up steam. The right block gains ground this week with the help of Shas and Am Shalem’s gains.

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #5 (week of Nov 5-Nov 11) of 3 polls (Panels, two Maagar):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 4 average in (brackets)

38.0 (38.0) [42] Likud Beitenu

22.3 (22.1) [08] Labor

13.0 (11.7) [10] Shas

11.0 (14.7) [--] Yesh Atid

9.0 (9.1) [07] National Union-Jewish Home

5.6 (5.8) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

3.6 (4.0) [04] Hadash

3.6 (3.0) [01] Am Shalem (polled in all 3 this week)

3.3 (4.2) [03] Meretz

3.3 (3.7) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

3.0 (3.1) [03] Balad

2.3 (1.7) [28] Kadima

1.6 (0.5) [05] Independence

69 (66.3) [65] Right 51 (53.6) [55] Center-Left

Visit KnessetJeremy.com.

In Polls: Labor Picking Up Speed as Likud-Beitenu Faces Loss of Seats

Monday, November 5th, 2012

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #4 (week of Oct 29-Nov 4) of 7 polls (Teleseker, two Panels, Dahaf, Geocartography, Smith, Dahaf):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 3 average in (brackets)

38 (36.6) [42] Likud Beitenu
22.1 (24.3) [08] Labor
14.7 (13.3) [---] Yesh Atid
11.7 (12) [10] Shas
9.1 (09) [07] National Union-Jewish Home
5.8 (5.3) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
4.2 (05) [03] Meretz
4.0 (04) [04] Hadash
3.7 (3.3) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.1 (03) [03] Balad
1.7 (2.6) [28] Kadima
0.5 (01) [05] Independence

03 [01] Am Shalem (based on 2 of 7 polls)

1.5 in one poll for Pensioners and Green Party each

66.3 (63) [65] Right
53.6 (57) [55] Center-Left

Visit Knesset Jeremy.

The Maddening Thing About Moshe Kahlon

Thursday, November 1st, 2012

It looks like Moshe Kahlon, the popular and vaunted Likud Minister of Communications, will be the second consecutive Likud Central Committee Chairman to leave the party looking for more power. The first one, Tzahi Hanegbi who left to Kadima and was charged with handing out jobs to cronies and nearly convicted of perjury, is now back in Likud because Kadima has entirely crashed. He’s looking for a slot on Likud’s Knesset roster.

But that’s not what’s so maddening. After all, corrupt gangsters are all over the political spectrum peeking their heads in and out of political crevices looking for a slice of tax money. I am a voting Likud party member, and I don’t care all that much that Hanegbi is coming back. I simply won’t vote for him. What’s maddening is the reason that Kahlon is popular and polling 27 Knesset seats if he runs with former Kadima Diva Tzipi Livni, another a Likud defector.

The only reason that Kahlon is popular is that I, an Israeli citizen with a cell phone, only have to pay 20 shekels a month for good service now instead of 400. Why is that? Because Kahlon, in a fit of what must have been Divine Inspiration, decided that he, as Communications Czar of Israel, would just let the market be, get out of the way, and do absolutely nothing.

Quite literally, the best thing he did forIsraelwas to say that he would no longer forbid any company that wants to enter the communications market to do so. He decided he would no longer protect big business with government threats. He decided, in effect, that there was no need for a Communication Minister at all. And voila! More companies sprung up offering much lower prices, and the whole country now benefits from the free market in cell phones. (Or at least much freer.)

But what makes me want to put my head in my hands and weep “Oy Gevalt!” is that the country has no idea what Kahlon did or why it worked. The entire media is describing Kahlon now as an economic socialist, and that it was socialism and ingenious government regulation policies that fixed the cell phone market. All the people know is that Kahlon went into office and then the cell phone bills went down, so they all love him.

And the worst part is, Kahlon himself doesn’t understand why he succeeded. He really IS a socialist, into the welfare state idea and all that. He just happened to have a flash of genius once and did something totally libertarian, totally unsocialistic, by getting government out of the market and just letting it function. Now he thinks he knows how to fix everything with government, andIsraelbelieves him and will vote for him to do just that.

He’ll take that mandate, try to tinker with the free market somewhere, and the people will be disappointed, his party will crash, and he and everyone who goes with him will come crying back to the Likud, as they all do. Even Avigdor Liberman came from the Likud way back when, and now he’s back too.

All government has to do is get out of the way and leave everyone alone as much as possible. It doesn’t take Kahlon-ic genius to do that.

Visit Settlers of Samaria

The Russian and the Charmer

Monday, October 29th, 2012

It’s funny in a way how Israelis think of our leaders. As a young man, Bibi Netanyahu was thought of as a lady’s man, a charmer. He’s an excellent speaker, motivated, intimate. He gives you this feeling he is talking to you – and he can do it to a room of 20 people, 100 people, 1,000 people. As he did at the United Nations recently, he is a man that speaks from the hearts of many Israelis and you almost forget that it is his gift, to speak, to charm, to touch. The man is in his 60s; he’s a grandfather, and still there is this element of charm about him.

Avigdor Liberman moved to Israel in 1978. That’s 35 years ago – and still he is thought of as the Russian – more, he thinks of himself that way. His outlook on life is very much Russian and that’s how he runs his political party and his position as Foreign Minister. He is outspoken to say the least, and even, at times, a bit of an embarrassment because his concept of diplomacy involves a sledge hammer. Democracy is a concept to him; security a reality.

Both men are, above all else, pragmatic. They will defy logic and critics to shake up the political spectrum. Bibi has done it several times. A few months ago, polls guaranteed him a sure win if he called early elections. The announcements were made; dates were discussed and then, in the dead of night, he made a deal to unite with Kadima. No surprise to anyone, that deal fell apart rather quickly and Israel is once again on the path to elections.

And then another shocker – rather than make a post-election deal to have Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman’s party) join a coalition, the two men announced a joint ticket where the parties would run together. Israel was in an uproar – they had most definitely outmaneuvered the left. They had, to a degree, surprised the right wing as well.

As part of that agreement, Netanyahu announced that Liberman might even become Secretary of Defense. I did a quick Google search and found that Liberman had indeed done army service. I smiled when I saw he had been in Artillery, as Elie was. Liberman finished as a “Corporal” according to Google. That would make him, I think, a רב טוראי. By contrast, Elie finished the army two ranks above as a First Sergeant.

What qualifications could Liberman have to be Secretary of Defense? I asked Elie and his answer surprised me. I had considered the possibility of this man filling this position a joke – Elie was not nearly as pessimistic or surprised.

It was an analysis that I find myself agreeing with. No one thinks Liberman is stupid – far from it. What he is, is loud and decisive. He doesn’t care about diplomacy – he is most assuredly strong-willed. “If he threatens Iran,” Elie said, “the world is going to believe he’s crazy enough to follow through.”

While the world might doubt someone else, they will believe that an Israeli army under Liberman would be not only ready and able, but willing and even anxious to attack. That alone might really spur the world to stop Iran. And, added Elie, Bibi knows this.

Though I won’t vote for them – perhaps Bibi is right. He will, barring some major stupid action on his part, win the upcoming election. By taking in Liberman, he has sent a strong message to the left parties – they will have no place in the upcoming coalition. Not only will they remain in the opposition, they will be further weakened as Israelis, in reaction to many world events, turns just that much further to the right.

The left-wing will not join a government in which Liberman serves. Liberman once said, “The peace process is based on three false basic assumptions; that Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the main cause of instability in the Middle East, that the conflict is territorial and not ideological, and that the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders will end the conflict.”

The first of those has been proven again and again in the last year (Arab Spring). On the second and third point, it is something Israelis for the most part have accepted for a long time – but the world (media, Obama, etc.) still fail to understand.

But I liked Elie’s interpretation, liked even better his analysis. Avidgor Liberman is seen as the big ferocious, Russian bear – let the world be afraid. Let them think that Avigdor Liberman is a warmongering right wing fanatic that will lead us to war. Let them think it because in their fear, the nations of the world may react, they may stop a madman from carrying out his threat.

And, if they don’t stop him, if Israel will have to act to protect its citizens, perhaps the Russian and the Charmer make a good combination. Certainly better than anything Kadima, Labor, etc. has to offer. So, yalla – on to the elections.

Visit A Soldier’s Mother.

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