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July 3, 2015 / 16 Tammuz, 5775
At a Glance

Posts Tagged ‘Labor’

Final Election Count is In

Thursday, March 19th, 2015

The final count of votes from the 2015 Israeli elections are in.

72.3% of eligible voters voted. 4,249,846 people voted out of 5,881,696 eligible voters.

The final seat distribution is as follows:

Likud (Netanyahu): 30
Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 24
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Shas (Deri): 7
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

The Likud was 15,877 seats away from passing the million voter mark.

Yachad was missing 11,932 votes in order to pass the minimum threshold.

43,842 votes in total were disqualified.

Yachad is considering petitioning the court over approximately 15,000 votes that were disqualified due to various problems with the voting slips.

Three people were arrested during the elections for tampering with Yachad voting slips, trying to make it impossible to vote for the Yachad party, and there were more cases where Yachad slips were found tampered with to disqualify them, but no arrests were made.

The Yachad party suspects they may have enough votes to still get in, and are currently examining the issue and will make a decision in the coming days.

Mahapach! מהפך – Likud Crushes Zionist Union

Wednesday, March 18th, 2015

מהפך “Mahapach” – translated as upheaval or revolution, was the headline used by the Israeli media immediately following the 1977 elections when the Likud, led by Menachem Begin, won for the first time, changing the face of Israeli politics forever.

The overwhelming electoral victory yesterday by the Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, was nothing less than that, a revolution and upheaval, and most importantly, an absolutely clear mandate from the people to lead the coalition and the State of Israel.

With 99% of the votes counted, we’ll only see 1 seat change here or there as the percentages and deals are calculated.

The Likud is either at 29 or 30 seats, with an absolutely clear lead.

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 24
Likud (Netanyahu): 29 (or 30)
The Joint (Arab) List: 14
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 (or 6)
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6
Meretz (Gal-On): 4
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

 

Both large parties, Likud and Zionist Union, won their seats by cannibalizing their smaller natural partners.

Bayit Yehudi made the biggest sacrifice for the Likud, with Bayit Yehudi voters heeding Netanyahu’s call to vote for Likud to guarantee Netanyahu a clear mandate..

Eli Yishai’s Yachad party did not make it into the Knesset.

Zahava Galon, the head of the Meretz party quit her party this morning, after winning only 4 seats.

LIVE: Initial Election Results – Who Won, Who Lost…

Tuesday, March 17th, 2015

Here are the initial Exit Poll results from the 2015 elections for the 20th Knesset in Israel:

These are not final numbers, which can still change by the morning.

The configuration options assume that everyone goes with their natural partners. Other options is a National Unity government, or that some parties switch sides from their natural partners for a better offer.

It appears that PM Netanyahu is in the best position to form a coalition, but it will be dependent on Moshe Kachlon (Kulanu).

10:01 PM

Side by side comparison of the exit poll results:

Channel 10 2 1 Walla!
Party
Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 27 27 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27 28 27 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13 13 12 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8 8 9 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 12 12 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 9 10 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 6 6 6
Shas (Deri): 7 7 7 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5 5 5 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5 5 5 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0 0 0 0

 

Walla!

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Walla!):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 57

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 63

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 67

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 53

 

Channel 2

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 28
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12
Kulanu (Kachlon): 9
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Channel 2):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 57

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  28 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 9 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 63

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon)

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 9 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 66

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  28 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 6 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 54

 

Channel 10 

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27
Likud (Netanyahu): 27
The Joint (Arab) List: 13
Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 8
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11
Kulanu (Kachlon): 10
UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7
Shas (Deri): 7
Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5
Meretz (Gal-On): 5
Yachad (Eli Yishai): 0

Possible configurations (Channel 10):

OPTION 1

LEFT: Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 56

RIGHT Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 64

 

OPTION 2 (It all depends on Kachlon)

LEFT (Option 2): Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 27 + The Joint (Arab) List: 13 + Kulanu (Kachlon): 10 + Yesh Atid (Lapid): 11 + Meretz (Gal-On): 5 = 66

RIGHT (Option 2) Likud (Netanyahu):  27 + Bayit Yehudi (Bennett):  8 + UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7 + Shas (Deri): 7 + Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman):  5 + Yachad (Eli Yishai):  0 = 54

Shmuel Sackett’s Election Predictions

Thursday, March 12th, 2015

Sports-talk radio is replete with predictions ranging from the team which will win the Super Bowl to who will be the new Yankees shortstop. In that tradition, I will now offer my official predictions for what will happen in next week’s Knesset elections. (Please note that if my predictions are completely wrong I will have no problem explaining what happened and why I am still an expert! After all, doesn’t that happen all the time??) OK, here goes:

Likud will win the elections with 26 seats. Current polls show them at 23 but I feel they will do better than that. Yes, many people are tired of Netanyahu as Prime Minister (7 years already, not counting his 3 year run from ’96-’99) but the alternative is weak and unimpressive. His speech before the US Congress sealed his fate as Israel’s next Prime Minister as people realized that – like it or not – this guy is strong, tough, articulate and focused. The thought of that speech being given by Labor leader Boojie Herzog is enough to make you laugh and then sick, and Israelis across the spectrum will decide that Herzog is simply not a viable alternative. Bibi has his issues and people blame every problem on him (which is common in politics) but he is simply the strongest contender and will emerge victorious.

Labor will receive 22 seats which is not as many as they want but is a great improvement over their existing representation of 15 seats. They will receive their increase of seats on the back of Yesh Atid and Meretz who will lose many of their existing Knesset members. As stated above, Labor is not a viable alternative to lead the nation but they provide a comfortable home for the “anti-Bibi” vote. As you know, on Election Day – across the world – many people vote AGAINST someone rather that FOR someone and Labor will receive a lot of these votes. This anti vote helped Obama defeat McCain in 2008 since millions of people voted for Obama as a protest against Bush (who wasn’t even running!!). The voters saw McCain as a continuation of the Bush presidency and voted against him for that reason. This same logic worked against Obama in the recent mid-term elections as people showed their great displeasure in him by voting Republican in both the Congress and Senate. The “anti” vote is a very strong factor in world politics and Labor will receive an enormous amount of those votes. This will increase their current Knesset representation by 50% but will not be enough to topple Netanyahu.

Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, will take a big hit in these elections but will remain a factor in Israeli politics. Currently, Lapid has a whopping 19 seats (from his first election campaign – very impressive!) but he will not be able to hold on to that many. In my opinion, he will drop to 9 seats. His two years as Finance Minister was filled with much controversy and people blame him for many of the economic problems. To be honest, this is of course ridiculous, since he was Finance Minister for less than two years. By the time he learned the job and put together a budget, new elections were declared and he was busy running a campaign to save his political life. Many of his financial ideas were good and innovative but he simply had no time to bring them to fruition. Most people don’t realize this and are simply fed up with him. He still has a following – and 9 seats are strong in Israeli politics – but he will not come close to what he had before.

A Coalition of Brothers

Thursday, March 12th, 2015

To date, everyone has talked about a Likud led coalition, a Labor (Zionist Union) led coalition, and a National Unity government.

But there’s another election possibility to consider.

In the outgoing coalition, Naftali Bennett (Bayit Yehudi) and Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) proved they could get what they wanted if they stood firm together against Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud); and so, this time around, once the votes are counted, the mid-size parties may quickly realize they can again get what they want, if they again pull the same trick.

What would happen if most of the mid-size parties pulled a “brother,” and created a united front, the United Center, if you will – led by Yair Lapid?

Consider the following configuration:

Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (8) + Shas (7) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) = 33

The United-Middle is just 28 seats short of a coalition.

There’s actually no reason to assume that Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Litzman (UTJ) can’t find common ground – after all, while Lapid got to pass his Haredi draft law, in reality the law backfired and fewer Haredim now enter the army – so both sides have won (or lost).

UTJ’s 7 seats would put the United-Center at 40. UTJ also gets the added bonus of hurting Bayit Yehudi, whom they are still angry at from the previous coalition government, when Bennett joined with Lapid, excluding UTJ from the coalition.

The United-Middle then has the choice to invite either the Likud or the Zionist Union to join the coalition as junior partners (assuming Tzipi Livni hadn’t already split off her HaTnua party from the Zionist Union to join the United-Middle on the strength of her own 6 seats).

Yair Lapid has actually hinted that this is what he plans to do.

Lapid made it clear he won’t recommend Netanyahu, but he did not alternatively promise that he would recommend Herzog/Livni. Members of his own party implied that Lapid might recommend Lapid.

To counter this embarrassment of coming in as junior partners, the Likud and Herzog would try to form a National Unity government.

Labor (24) + Likud (21) = 45

Bringing in Bennett (13) gives them 58, and the first 3 from Yachad (excluding Marzel), if not alternatively the 7 from UTJ puts a National Unity government over the top at 61, 64 or 67.

Unfortunately, that configuration has one major flaw. Tzipi Livni.

Livni may decide to bolt to the United-Center rather than sit in a coalition with Bennett, and be in some crazy 3-way rotation with both Herzog and Netanyahu.

In which case, the numbers change to:

Likud (21) + Labor (16) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + UTJ (7) = 57.

Four seats short.

Who would blink first?

Shas (7) would be the weakest link to bribe away from the United-Center, giving a National Unity government 64 seats. Lieberman might also switch sides if he sees things not going his way.

We are entering one of the most critical elections in Israel’s history, and absolutely everything is up for grabs.

It does appear that if the mid-sized parties try to flex too much muscle and get too greedy, we will end up with a National Unity government.

Clearly, as tense and crazy as this pre-election period has been, it won’t compare to what happens after the votes are counted.

It Might Be Better to Vote Yachad

Thursday, March 12th, 2015

At the start of this week I endorsed Bayit Yehudi. I felt from a strategic perspective it made the most sense. We need a strong/influential Rightwing/religious party keeping Netanyahu from drifting too far left – in a Likud led coalition.

But the polls results these past few days fill me with trepidation.

Not only is Likud losing mandates, and not to Bayit Yehudi or Yachad which would at least keep the votes on the right, but as far as I can tell, the seats are shifting to Yesh Atid and due to increased Likud-voter apathy.

Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Moshe Kachlon (Kulanu) have sensed the winds of change and have made it clear they’ll be supporting Herzog/Livni.

Due to this idiotically raised electoral threshold, these middling parties have become the absolute key to forming any government. From early on, Kachlon managed to position himself to be the lever for whichever coalition would want to come into power.

With Kachlon’s intentions pretty clear, only an election miracle will keep the radical left from back coming to power and returning us to the awful Oslo days.

If that’s the case, I think it will be more important to vote Yachad – for Eli Yishai and Baruch Marzel.

A radical leftwing Livni/Herzog government is going to do very bad things to this country.

They’re going to bring socialism back into our economy – regardless of what Kachlon thinks.

Iran will see this as an opportunity to go full steam ahead.

And the Palestinian Authority will only need to sit back and accept whatever latest gift Livni/Herzog hands over to them that day – as they escalate the violence in return.

“Sacrifices for Peace” is again going to be sick slogan we’ll be inundated with constantly, and the only question is how long will it take before the government starts throwing Jews out of our homes “for Peace”.

If that’s going to be the scenario, then we don’t need a party that will keep Netanyahu from going left, presuming he doesn’t retire. We’ll need an opposition party that will fight tooth and nail to protect us, a party who is going to raise the biggest stink and scream the loudest, because besides that, there won’t be much more that the Right will be able to do from the back benches.

And if that’s the case, we need Baruch Marzel in the Knesset.

Please God, don’t let the Left win – too many friends and acquaintances were murdered by Oslo and the policies of the Left. I do not want us to go through that again.

GLZ Poll Puts Labor On Top – With a Coalition

Wednesday, March 11th, 2015

Completely opposite of the i24 News poll last week, a new poll by Galei Tzahal puts the Zionist Union (Labor) in a strong lead… and for the first time, Labor can actually form a coalition.

A Leftwingg coalition would necessitate the Arab party joining the coalition, which would be a stretch for them, as well as Kulanu joining the coalition, which on the other hand, would be an easy move.

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 24

Likud (Netanyahu): 21

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 13

The Joint (Arab) List: 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12

Kulanu (Kachlon): 8

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7

Shas (Deri): 7

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6

Meretz (Gal-On): 6

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 4
LEFT: Labor (24) + Arab List (12) + Yesh Atid (12) + Kulanu (8) + Meretz (6) = 62

RIGHT: Likud (21) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + UTJ (7) + Shas (7) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) + Yachad (4)= 58

The question remains, will UTJ (and perhaps Shas) be willing to sit with Yesh Atid (or Meretz) if it means getting their fingers back in the pie?

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/glz-poll-puts-labor-on-top-with-a-coalition/2015/03/11/

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