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February 12, 2016 / 3 Adar I, 5776

Posts Tagged ‘poll’

Latest Election Poll

Friday, February 20th, 2015

A Walla poll from Friday had the following results:

Likud (Netanyahu): 24

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 23

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 13

The Joint (Arab) List: 12

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 12

Kulanu (Kachlon): 8

Shas (Deri): 7

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 6

Meretz (Gal-On): 4

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 4

LEFT: Labor (23) + Arab List (12) + Yesh Atid (12) + Meretz (4) = 51

RIGHT: Likud (24) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + Kulanu (8) + UTJ (7) + Shas (7) + Yisrael Beytenu (6) + Yachad (4) = 69

New Poll Keeps Rightwing Block in Lead

Saturday, February 14th, 2015

A Reshet Bet/Kol Yisrael poll from Friday had the following results:

Likud (Netanyahu): 25

Labor/Zionist Union (Herzog / Livni): 24

The Joint (Arab) List: 13

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 13

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 9

Shas (Deri): 8

UTJ (Gafni / Litzman): 7

Kulanu (Kachlon): 7

Yisrael Beyteynu (Liberman): 5

Meretz (Gal-On): 5

Yachad (Eli Yishai): 4

LEFT: Labor (24) + Arab List (13) + Yesh Atid (9) + Meretz (5) = 51

RIGHT: Likud (25) + Bayit Yehudi (13) + Kulanu (7) + UTJ (7) + Shas (8) + Yisrael Beytenu (5) + Yachad (4) = 69

Shas and Kulanu could still veer left and recommend that Herzog be appointed the Prime Minister. Though Shas has said last week it will go with Netanyahu, while Kulanu keeps sending mixed messages.

Israeli Elections 2015, 5775, Predictions #2

Tuesday, February 10th, 2015

First of all, for those who like following the election polls, I suggest that you keep checking Jeremy’s site.

The trend seems pretty clear in all but one of the polls; the Likud is slowly pulling ahead of the oxymoron party (aka Zionist Movement) led by Isaac Herzog and Tsipi Livni.

  • Midgam/Yediot Poll: Zionist Union 25, Likud 24, Bayit Yehudi 12, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11
  • Panels/Maariv/Jpost Poll: Likud 26, Zionist Union 22, Bayit Yehudi 13, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11, UTJ 8
  • Teleseker/Walla Poll: Likud 26, Zionist Union 23, Bayit Yehudi 12, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 10, Koolanu 8
  • Maagar Mochot/Radio Poll: Likud 24, Zionist Union 24, Bayit Yehudi 14, United Arab List 12, Yesh Atid 11, Koolanu 8

Recent newscasts and the usual Leftist Israeli media have been bemoaning the failing or “non-existent” according to them, actual campaign of the Zionist Union-Labor and Tsipi. According to them, after the “swinging” announcement, much mocked by many, of the union of the veteran Labor Party and Tsipi Livni, born and raised in a noble Revisionist family, there hasn’t been much of a campaign.

One of the news shows I watched ended with the wish that maybe they, the news editors, were premature in their analysis. There was hope that future polls would show much better results for Labor-Livni.

Last week brought heralded the return of Latma, the totally fantastic satire by Caroline Glick, this time on the “big screen” of Chanel 1 TV.

It ended with a song about Tsipi and the hapless Herzog. She was the tough male figure of the pair, and he wore the wedding gown. She picked him up on her motorcycle, drove off very dangerously. They have an accident, and when the police come they point to each other as the guilty driver. And then before Herzog even realizes that he has been “had,” she’s off calling “Yair, Yair…” I agree with that as a suitable reaction of Tsipi’s the minute it’s clear that she has destroyed or seriously damaged Labor. And that’s why I call her the “political nymphomaniac.”

There’s a long time trend in the Israeli political scene which can’t be stopped, because it’s totally due to numbers. I’m talking demographics. Religious, traditional and of course chareidi families are larger than the secular ones. Official statistics also show the size of Arab families shrinking. I see that in my Arab customers, Yafiz, Sha’ar Binyamin.

For these 2015, 5775 elections, add to that the so far weak campaign from the Left, based on gimme! and ignoring security. They will have to work much, much harder if they want to win. Numbers are against them.

New Poll Bad News for the Left and Bayit Yehudi

Thursday, February 5th, 2015

A new poll published by the Israeli Walla! website Thursday shows that the left and center-left parties are losing support, as is the Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) party.

If elections were held today, the Likud would win 26 seats in the Knesset, compared with 23 for the Herzog-Livni “Zionist Camp” duo, according to the poll.

The most significant changes from previous polls are weakening support for Meretz and Bayit Yehudi. The left-wing Meretz party will barely win representation, apparently losing voters to Herzog-Livni, a merger of Livni’s HaTnuah party and Labor (The Zionist Union), the poll reveals. Theirs candidates are more much more leftist than before, attracting Meretz supporters but apparently putting off supports who may have flocked to Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party and the new Kulanu party founded by Moshe Kahlon.

Bayit Yehudi, headed by Naftali Bennett, is losing ground. For the first time since the beginning of the campaign, the party has dropped to 12 Knesset seats, the same as in the outgoing Knesset but two to four less than in nearly all previous polls. This puts them as the same size as the Arab party, who could end up being the 3rd largest party in the Knesset.

That drop accounts for the increase in support for Likud.

The shifts in supports for Meretz and Bayit Yehudi do not change the left-right balance, but they leave the Likud in a better position.

The Walla! poll gives Yesh Atid 10 seats, one more than in most other previous polls. All other parties are more or less in the same position, except for Yisrael Beiteinu, which was granted seven seats, according to the poll. Previous surveys projected the party headed by Avigdor Lieberman would barely win enough support to enter the Knesset.

The new Yachad party headed by Eli Yishai continues to be on the edge of winning enough votes to enter the Knesset.

 

Likud Runs 3rd behind Herzog-Livni and Jewish Home in Poll of Students

Monday, January 19th, 2015

The Herzog-Livni party, billed as the “Zionist Camp,” and the Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) party headed by Naftali Bennett would be the two largest parties in Israel if university and college students were voting, according to a poll published by Globes.

The Likud party came in a distant third place, winning only 16 of 120 Knesset seats in a poll of nearly 2,600 students.

The Herzog-Livni combo won 30 seats, and Bennett’s party was only four seats behind.

Bennett topped the list on the question of trust, while Herzog was favored when it comes to social issues, housing and future employment, which are of the utmost concern to students.

Herzog and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu were even-Stephen in the poll that asked who is best suited to be Prime Minister.

Political leaders should pay serious attention to the results because they show that those who soon will be in the forefront of society are tired of slogans, talk and lack of change in a social and political system that is overweight, tired and self-fulfilling.

The lists of candidates of the Jewish Home party and the in the merged Labor-Livni party, even if it is called the “Zionist Camp,” are clearly left-wing and right-wing.

The Likud, under Netanyahu, has tried so hard to be so centrist that it has no clear direction.

Israel’s establishment launched the election campaign by trying to convince the public that Labor-Livni is not leftwing but is a centrist party.

The Labor party primaries killed that hoax with the election of bona fide leftists, including one who wants to divide Jerusalem, to spots that guarantee them a seat in the next Knesset.

Similar, voters in the Jewish Home party made it look like a resurrection of the old National Religious Party, except for the spectacular victory of secularist Ayelet Shaked.

Bennett can make the list a bit more secular but even stronger as a right-wing faction if he exercises his option of choosing a candidate for a top spot and nominates Dani Dayan, a spokesman for Judea and Samaria but not religious.

 

Latest Poll: Likud Back on Top, Arabs Take 4th Place

Friday, January 9th, 2015

In the latest poll, taken by Maariv-Walla, we have the following results:

Likud (Netanyahu): 25

Labor (Herzog-Livni): 24

Bayit Yehudi (Bennett): 15

Arab List: 11

Kulanu (Kachlon): 10

Yesh Atid (Lapid): 9

UTJ (Litzman-Gafni): 8

Shas (Deri): 6

Meretz (Gal-on): 6

Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman): 6 In the latest poll the Likud is now back on top. Due to their unification, in response to the raised electoral threshold, the united Arab list is likely to become the 4th largest party in the Knesset, though it still remains one of the smaller parties.

Eli Yishai just barely keeps on missing the electoral threshold.

Deri is expected to announce next week that his permanent exit from politics or as head of the Shas party is over, and he’s retaking the reins of the Shas party.

Unless one of the two larger parties can break away and get higher numbers, we still see this ongoing deadlock situation, where everyone is reliant on the smaller parties to form a coalition, is its possible to form a coalition at all.

If Labor and Likud form a national unity government, that will actually provide them a wide range of partners, of course, the government will be even worse than the last one.

With neither Kachlon, Shas, UTJ or Yisrael Beiteinu swearing allegiance to a right-wing coalition, everything is up for grabs.

It appears, in fact, that Labor would have an easier time to form a coalition than Likud with these numbers.

In a second question asked:  between Benjamin Netanyahu and Yitzchak Herzog, 50% believe that Netanyahu is better suited to be Prime Minister, while 25% believe Herzog is better suited for the task.

Likud Beats Labor-Livni as Lieberman Sinks in New Polls

Friday, January 2nd, 2015

The Likud party has sailed past the Labor-Livni party in a new poll taken after early returns in the Likud primary elections Thursday night pointed to a more centrist list of candidates.

The survey for Walla! News by Teleseker (TNS) also shows that the Yisrael Beitenu party, headed by Avigdor Lieberman, has suffered sharp losses following the suspected bribe scandal revealed by police last week.

With ideological right-winger Moshe Feiglin off a realistic place on the Likud list of candidates, the Likud came up with 26 projected seats in the Knesset, while Labor-Livni remained stuck with 23.

However, an Israel Radio poll taken after the Likud primary elections still puts Labor-Livni one seat ahead of the Likud.

The TNS poll revealed that 40 percent of the respondents think that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is the best man to lead the government, and only 24.3 percent gave their support for Yitzchak Herzog, chairman of the Labor party, and his new sidekick Tzipi Livni. The two Labor party leaders agreed that they will be rotating prime ministers if their party forms the next government, which seems unlikely if the polls don’t change dramatically before the March 17 elections.

The Jewish Home party continues to remain with 16 projected Knesset Members in all polls, one-third more than it had in the outgoing Knesset.

A Globes poll taken before the Likud primaries, like the TNS survey, shows that the Yisrael Beitenu would win only seven seats in the Knesset if elections were held today.

Both the Globes and TNS polls give Shas a new lease on life since the leak earlier this week of a video showing the late Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, who was the first and last word in the Haredi Sephardi party, trashing Aryeh Deri and favoring Eli Yishai, who now heads his own party.

Shas would win seven seats in the Knesset, according to TNS, and six according to the Globes poll, while Yishai would come up with nothing, according to both polls.

The standing of Yesh Atid, headed by Yair Lapid, and Kulanu, the new party founded by former Likud minister Moshe Kahlon, remain virtually unchanged, with each one  projected to win nine or ten Knesset seats.

Both polls give the left-wing Meretz party seven seats.

The bottom line is that Netanyahu will form the next government, and the Opposition may be even weaker than before.

The more that the merged Labor-Livni party cannot make headway, the more that Kahlon will mind his Ps and Qs to make sure he can get what he wants out of joining a coalition led by the Likud.

However, at this stage, a coalition of Likud, Jewish Home, Kahlon and Yisrael Beitenu still leaves Netanyahu four seats shy of a majority.

His choices are either or both of the Haredi parties because it is difficult to see Lapid and Netanyahu working together. If Lapid suddenly starts distancing himself from Labor and begins talking about the importance of Jews in Judea and Samaria, it would mean his ego finally is deflated, which would be the eighth wonder of the world.

But today’s polls are not the last word, and I am not going out on a long or weak limb to predict that Jewish home, headed by Naftali Bennett, will pick up more seats at the expense of Likud, Kahlon and possibly Yisrael Beitenu.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/likud-tops-labor-livni-and-lieberman-sinks-in-new-polls/2015/01/02/

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