So what does all this mean to Judaism? Does it mean that eventually Chasidus is the future of Judaism? Followed by Lakewood type Charedi Judaism? Followed by Modern Orthodoxy? With Centrism eventually declining into oblivion?
If one were to make a linear projection based on these numbers, that would seem to be the conclusion. But I don’think that will ultimately be the case. Let us examine some of the factors that determine these numbers.
I do not think it is a secret that the fertility rate among Chasidim is the highest by far of all Orthodox denominations. That makes it obvious to me why Chasidim have the biggest increase in students.
The fertility rate of Yeshiva type Charedim comes in at a relatively close second. It is also no secret that the MO fertility rate mimics that of the general population or perhaps is slightly above that.
What is most puzzling to me is the decline in the Centrist student population. Especially here in Chicago where the Centrist day school has had tremendous growth over the past couple of decades – more than doubling its population size since the 90s.
Here is why I don’t think you can predict the future via these numbers. As I have often said the Charedi world is not monolithic. Most mainstream Charedim are moderate. Moderate Charedim are therefore the wave of the future. They have adopted many of Modern Orthodox modalities in preparation for their careers. Including but not limited to higher education and attendance at professional schools (e.g. medical schools and law schools). And having been exposed to the secular world they have learned to better interact with it. This community has been joined by Centrists whose values are similar to moderate Charedim.
What about the explosion of Chasidim? I believe that eventually they too will join the moderate course of getting a better education and learning to interact with the general population. That’s because the current Chasidic paradigm of opposing secular education is not sustainable. But for a few very wealthy Chasidic entrepreneurs, the vast majority of Chasdim live very modest lifestyles (to put it kindly). Many are well below the poverty line.
That is a direct result of an inability to get good jobs for a lack of a decent secular education. Most have menial jobs with menial incomes well below what is need to support their large families. This also contributes mightily to the OTD phenomenon. If things stay the same – their geometric population increase means there will be an attendant poverty increase. As well as an OTD Increase.
I will therefore go out on a limb and predict that they too will eventually join the moderate Charedi world just as Centrists have (for entirely different reasons). I don’t know whether it will be a grass roots Chasidic movement or whether the Chasidic Rebbes will loosen the reins on educational opportunities for their Chasidim.
But in my view it will happen one way or another. This does not mean Chasidim will give up their Haskafos. Not anymore than Centrists have given up theirs. But there will be more integration into a generally moderate Orthodox culture. It will be diverse but a lot more unified. I know it doesn’t seem like it now. But I don’t believe the Chasidic world can be sustained as it is now. Something has to give. I think it may very well ‘give’ in the direction I mentioned.
But all of this is contingent on a sustainable Jewish educational system. That is what kept us Jewish. And that is what will keep us Jewish. How to sustain it financially is a real problem. That is beyond the scope of this essay. But it will happen. It must.