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December 20, 2014 / 28 Kislev, 5775
 
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Posts Tagged ‘shekel-dollar’

Shekel-Dollar Rates Tops 3.91

Monday, December 1st, 2014

The shekel-dollar rate hit a new two-year Monday morning, rising above 3.91 shekels to the dollar.

In July, the rate was around 3.40 with projections for its going even lower.

FXCM Israel, quoted by Globes, explained Monday, “The shekel-dollar exchange rate is not stopping and reaches new peaks almost daily….

“It seems that sentiment towards the shekel is at an unprecedented low, both because of the deteriorating security situation and because of the signs that the coalition is breaking up and the election atmosphere that is taking over the political arena. All this arouses concern on the market.

“The local market seems dominated by buyers only: on the one hand, those long on the dollar are not rushing to take profits, despite the price levels, while in current conditions no-one dares buy the shekel, even when there are technical opportunities for doing so. We are thus witness to a completely one-sided market.”

It concludes that in the long term, “There is no escaping the view that this trend will continue, both because of the gap in economic growth between the US and Israel, and because of the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to start toughening its interest rate policy, whereas the Bank of Israel, in current conditions, is expected to leave its interest rate at virtual zero for a prolonged period.

However, the Swiss USB bank wrote last week that while it sees the rate rising to 4 shekels to the dollar by mid-2015,,” Israel’s strong balance of payments should stem the depreciation in the medium term.”

Financial advisers have a habit of predicting the future based on the past and are not very good at calling a change indirection.

If the Israeli government coalition holds and early elections are not called, that could help brake the one-way trip for the currency.

Shekel Dollar Rates Breaks Year High at 3.64

Tuesday, September 16th, 2014

The shekel-dollar rate continued its non-stop climb Monday and reached beyond 3.64 shekels to the dollar but is near a short-term resistance level of 3.66

The rate two months ago was 3.40, and analysts were predicting a further drop, but The Jewish Press reported here before the recent rise that the situation of everyone being of the same opinion was a sure sign that a reversal to the upside was in sight.

However, our previous report saw resistance around 3.62, a level that easily was broke but still is only 2 cents from the next level of 3.66

The dollar has risen against almost all foreign currencies this summer after years of being in the doldrums. The Federal Reserve Bank has given clear signals that the  near-zero prime interest rate will rise next year, which will give investors a higher return for putting dollars in the bank.

The shekel had been strong, translated into a low shekel-dollar rate, for several years until this summer. The Israeli currency was strengthened in part by the prospect of Israel becoming an exporter of natural gas, but a slowdown in the economy, hastened by the war in Gaza, regional turmoil, and the tough government choice of having to raise taxes or the debt ceiling have combined with the strong dollar to send the shekel-dollar rate north.

This is good news for anyone with money in shekels or who gets paid in dollars because the conversion rate back into shekels is becoming higher each day.

That is equally true for Israeli-based international companies, whose earnings have taken a hit in recent years because of a decline in the shekel-dollar rate.

A cheaper shekel helps increase exports and tourism because more dollars buy more shekels.

On the downside, the higher shekel-dollar rate reflects pessimism over the local economy, which until last year was one of the strongest and most stable in the world, surviving quite well even the global bust in 2008.

“The economy is slowing down sharply, and when you combine this with the fact that Israel is part of the global picture, it’s likely that the shekel will continue to weaken,” Robert Carmeli, overseas funds manager at Migdal Capital Markets to told Globes business newspaper.

He and others are predicting that the shekel-dollar rate will approach 3.80 by the end of the year.

Shekel-Dollar Rate Soars to 3.60 for First Time in a Year

Friday, September 5th, 2014

The shekel-dollar rate continued its sudden rise Friday and was quoted at more than 3.605 shekels to the dollar for the first time a year.

The rate had dropped to as low as 3.40 this summer. The Jewish Press noted last year that the rate was likely to go down to at least 3.40 if not 3.30 because of the stable economy and Israel’s new era of an energy exporter of natural gas.

A slowdown in growth, the war in Gaza and the increasingly unstable Middle East set a floor of 3.40 for the rate. One sure sign that the bottom had been reached was almost universal agreement among analysts that the rate hit a resistance area of 3.57 earlier this week and that the rate would turn down.

The Theory of Contrary Opinion again was borne out with the non-stop rise, which so far has capped at 3.60.

Analysts at Bank Igud said that support for a weakening shekel is coming from “the slowdown growth, negative economic influences from the Protective Edge counter terror campaign, and from the need to establish social-economic priorities.”

Bank Leumi also cast doubts that the shekel will weaken.

As everyone jumps into the same camp again, the rise in the shekel-dollar rate may have finished its rise for the time being.

Sinking Shekel-Dollar Rate Good News for Israelis Visiting the US

Wednesday, January 1st, 2014

How low can you get? The shekel-dollar rate sank to a 28-month low Tuesday, and a dollar now is worth only a tad more than 3.46 shekels, compared with 3.50 shekels  a week ago and 3.75 a year ago. A shekel now is worth 29 cents, compared with 25 cents a year ago.

That means that American in Israel wanting to visit family in the United States can buy $100 with only 346 shekels. It also is bad news for American visiting Israel or earning dollars in Israel from abroad, who receive fewer shekels for a dollar.

Tuesday’s trading sent the rate to its lowest level since the spring in 2011, and a foreign exchange specialist told Globes business newspaper, “There is no doubt that the negative pressure on the two currencies remains large and there is a risk of breaking significantly lower. The dollar is at high risk worldwide due to the positive sentiment in capital markets in recent weeks and record levels of share indices.

“If there is indeed a continued weakness of the dollar at the start of 2014, the Bank of Israel must take aggressive action to prevent a collapse. From a technical point of view the shekel-dollar exchange rate is exposed to falling to very dangerous levels such as NIS 3.42/$ and NIS 3.38/$.

The shekel dollar rate has not been this low since August 2011, when it reach 3.4 shekels to the dollar. The only other time it was lower was in 2008, when the rate fell  to 3.26.

Easing of Fears of Attack in Syria Sinks Shekel-Dollar Rate

Wednesday, September 11th, 2013

The shekel-dollar rate sank to a two-year low Wednesday, reaching to as low as under 3.56 shekels to the dollar, after President Barack Obama called off a Senate vote on giving him permission to attack Syria. One shekel now is worth slightly more than 28 cents, good news for Israelis wanting dollars but terrible for exporters and Americans in Israel whose savings or wages are in dollars.

Last week, when it seemed certain that the United States would attack Syria, the rate was more than 3.66 shekels to the dollar.

Analysts expect the Bank of Israel to buy more dollars to jack up the rate if it falls much lower, but similar measures in the past have proven to have little long-term effect. The rate may move back up because of renewed strength in the American dollar worldwide.

However, the shekel  is expected to grow stronger  in the long term because of an improving economy, reduction of the deficit and the continuing development of the new offshore energy industry that is turning Israel into an energy exporter.

Turmoil in Egypt May be Driving Up Shekel-Dollar Rate

Monday, August 19th, 2013

One dollar bought slightly more than 3.57 shekels Monday morning as the shekel lost some of its recent strength, possibly because of the violence in Egypt, according to the Atrade foreign exchange service. The shekel also weakened against the Euro.

The Israeli currency, which most analysts believe will strengthen over the long-term, was trading at 3.53 shekels to the dollar two weeks ago.

The Central Bureau of Statistics reported on Sunday that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) soared in the second quarter by 5.1 percent annually, far above expectations. Working against the shekel’s strength is the prospect of a stronger dollar, depending on the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s tapering off of bond purchases.

In the long term, the Israeli economy is expected to benefit from a windfall in royalties on exported natural gas, which may lead to a cut in taxes and a further rise in consumer spending.

Shekel-Dollar Rate Sinks Below 3.53

Thursday, August 8th, 2013

The American dollar’s worldwide weakness helped drive down the shekel-dollar rate to below 3.53 shekels to the dollar Thursday, the lowest level since September 2011. One shekel now is worth 28 cents.

Analysts have pointed to the lack of certainty over who will replace Stanley Fischer as Governor of the Bank of Israel, but the main influence on the shekel has been the weakening dollar.

Intervention by the Bank of Israel, which bought $100 million of dollars Wednesday, did little to weaken the shekel against speculators who are betting on the shekel dollar rate to continue to drop. The shekel might weaken is and when the Federal Reserve Board explicitly announces it will reduce its bond purchases.

Printed from: http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/shekel-dollar-rate-sinks-below-3-53/2013/08/08/

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