The ideal family size has fallen to 5.1 for Arabs in Gaza and 4.5 in the West Bank. The desired family size among both Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs is now 3.7.
While Gallup found no difference in the preferred number of children among younger Israelis, younger West Bankers, 15 to 19, believe an ideal family should have 4.1 children, compared to relatives over 50 years old, who believe the ideal family should have 5.0 children.
The convergence in desired birth activity among Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs, and particularly among younger West Bankers, is likely to further impact the future demographic outlook for Israel and the West Bank, where Jews now form a two-thirds majority.
Demographers who concentrated on past patterns in the Arab population missed the evidence of a slowdown in the Arab sector and the demographic revolution occurring among Jews. By focusing on the past, forecasters anticipated demographic momentum in the wrong sector and produced an outlook that couldn’t even get the present correct, let alone the future.
“Forecast for Israel and West Bank 2025” debuted at the Herzliya Policy Conference in Israel and at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. The studies can be found at www.pademographics.com.