Photo Credit: Kobi Gideon, GPO

I can take the simple commonsense, mathematical or physics-type answer and give an easy yes to my question. Bibi will soon be celebrating his 68th birthday. He has been Prime Minister of Israel for an approximate decade, and even if he has inherited his father’s longevity, it’s an easy guess to say that not in his worst nightmares is he planning another decade in office. So, that means that Bibi is more than halfway through, which means that he’s on his way out.

Now, the real question is whether after all these years of public service and politics will Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu leave gracefully with a “good name,” or will he be served a “Go to jail” card?

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Bibi and his wife Sarah have been under a “legal microscope” for quite awhile already, and  it seems to me that if there had been some serious crimes, they’d be jailed already.

On the other hand, there are those who see him as getting punished by Gd in this world for moral failures against Jewish life/building in the Land of Israel. And his recent incomprehensible failure to uphold minimal security for our security forces on the Temple Mount certainly may have tipped things against him and will cause Bibi a very nasty downfall. Metal detectors and photographic surveillance on the Temple Mount had widespread support among Israelis, Right, Left and Center, Jews and non-Jews alike. Bibi’s capitulation to Arab terrorists was suicidal and incomprehensible especially for a man who’s known as a brilliant masterly politician.

If Netanyahu had been strong about keeping the new security devices in place, the latest polls would have shown his Likud taking seats from Jewish Home, Yisrael Beiteinu, Yair Lapid and Kulanu. But as soon as Bibi crumbled he speeded up the “post-Bibi” competition among his wannabe successors. Look at the difference according to the polls  in “Jeremy’s Knesset Insider.

With Bibi at the helm: Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud
22 [24] Zionist Union
18 [11] Yesh Atid
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu

Likud under a different leader:
31 [30] Likud led by Saar, Erdan or Katz
20 [24] Zionist Union
16 [11] Yesh Atid
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu

Don’t forget that even with all the complaints and public investigations of Bibi, the polls are pretty consistent in giving the Likud the most seats. According to Israeli Law one vote for a political party, not a person, and the leader of the party that succeeds in forming a coalition becomes the Prime Minister.

What do you think?

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