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Map of Iran

*The number of executions in Iran has increased during Rouhani’s presidency – 721 in 2014, 665 in 2013 and 522 in 2012 – which prohibits freedom of religion, speech, press, association and expression.

Notwithstanding such a ruthless track record, the “hope-driven, fact-dismissing school of thought” considers the Ayatollahs a partner for an agreement (rather than imposition), in a region where intra-Muslim agreements are usually signed on ice, not carved in stone.  In fact, the nature of the Iranian regime, on the one hand, and compliance with agreements, on the other hand, constitute a classic oxymoron.

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Furthermore, the long term goal of denying Iran nuclear capabilities – which may require deterrence-maximizing unilateral American action – could be undermined by short-term eagerness to conclude an agreement through the ineffective deterrence-minimizing multilateral action. The overt eagerness strengthens the hand of Iran and increases the price to be paid by the West.

Recent precedents suggest that the diplomatic option is applicable to rogue regimes that abandon violence, while a credible military option should be highlighted during negotiation with rogue regimes that adhere to violence. For instance, it was the 1988 intensification of the US bombing of Iranian targets, which led Ayatollah Khomeini to reluctantly evacuate Iraqi territory and sign a ceasefire agreement with Iraq. In 2003, Gaddafi’s dismantling his nuclear infrastructure, and Iran’s suspending nuclear development, were triggered by the US military devastation of Saddam Hussein. However, lowering the profile of the US military option has convinced Iran that it could get away with terror and nuclear.

Will the US learn from recent history by avoiding, or repeating, past mistakes?!

Are the Ayatollahs amenable to policy-change, or do they require a regime-change?

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Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger is consultant to Israel’s Cabinet members and Israeli legislators, and lecturer in the U.S., Canada and Israel on Israel’s unique contributions to American interests, the foundations of U.S.-Israel relations, the Iranian threat, and Jewish-Arab issues.