Saudi Arabia officially put out a statement harshly critical of Israel’s air strikes on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.
But what do the Saudis actually think? Follow the oil.
Israel’s sudden attack on Iran has threatened to disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East, placing the Opec+ cartel’s recent decision to increase crude production into the spotlight.
The Saudi Arabia-led producer group has surprised the oil market this year by fast-tracking the return of idled production even as crude prices fell. It has prompted speculation that the cartel was responding to White House pressure to boost output ahead of a confrontation with Iran.
If the Saudis really wanted to force a rapid end to the war, they would be doing what they have done in the past, which is cut production. And had they wanted to really pressure Trump ahead of a possible confrontation with Iran, they would have refused to boost production.
Oil production is still their best weapon. Boosting oil production provides a cushion ahead of a showdown with Iran.
That is not to say that the Saudis are America’s friend, let alone Israel’s friend, but they are happy enough with a scenario in which Iran’s capabilities get rolled back, without having to get directly involved or take any risks.
Forget what they say, watch what they pump.
