If the reports on President Trump’s whirlwind Gulf trip are even half accurate, his performance was nothing short of stunning.
Reuters reports that he took full advantage of the shattered state of the Iran-led “axis of resistance” by promoting political cooperation amongst several of the Sunni-led states in the region with an eye towards the emergence of an Arab counterweight to Shiite Iran. And, in particular, he spent much time, apparently successfully, trying to coax former Iranian ally Syria, which had recently deposed its despotic president Bashar al-Assad, into a working relationship with Western-oriented Gulf states.
He also came to several massive investment agreements with some Gulf states potentially involving several trillions of dollars. This not only has economic implications, but it also meant that the U.S. has a stake in their security – certainly with the several announced multi-billion-dollar arms and fighter aircraft deals as Exhibit A.
President Trump insists that he has included Israel in all his plans to put America first, and it is all good news for Israel. Indeed, he vociferously denies that he has sidelined Israel in any way. Yet while he typically puts his money where his mouth is and tilts towards Israel, we do have at least one reservation.
The rationale for Arab states joining the Abraham Accords during the first Trump term was that they were desperate for ways to deter Iranian aggression and, seeing the handwriting on the wall for economies based on oil revenues, to end their dependence on them.
And those states, after years of neglect, being woefully deficient in scientific, technological and industrial development, it was imperative that they bootstrap onto a neighbor that was on the cutting edge in all of these areas and could bring them quickly into the 21st century.
So Israel seemed to be a natural for them, despite their long history of Arab animosity towards the Jewish state – and the rest was history. That is, until Oct. 7 and its aftermath.
However, not only did it showcase his talent, President Trump’s tour of the Gulf region may also have demonstrated that Israel was not as indispensable to the Arab leap forward that they thought it was.
While Israel can claim superiority in certain fields, in context, any gaps with the U.S. may not necessarily be significant and “whatever Israel can do, America can do at least as well,” to coin a phrase. And with respect to deterrent military power and providing trade and investment possibilities, the U.S. surely is able to do the job equally as well.
So it is vital that President Trump underscore at every opportunity – by word and deed – that the Arab path to the U.S. is still through Israel. Saudi Arabia and the others may not choose to jettison Israel. But if they do, President Trump should tell them why they shouldn’t.
