In retrospect, it seems it was inevitable that military action would be necessary to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions. There is no reasonable way the Ayatollahs could have interpreted the 2015 nuclear deal President Obama struck with them – the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action the Iranian – as anything other than an American acknowledgment that a nuclear Iran was in the world’s future and a pathway to getting there. It was “paradigmatic kicking the can down the road.” So why would they be expected to willingly go along with the significantly greater stringencies President Trump was insisting on this time around?
The JCPOA provided for a laughable inspection regime featuring alerts to Iran about when and where they were scheduled. There were even some sites that were off limits to inspectors altogether…and inspection reports were subject to negotiation before becoming final.
Crucially, the JCPOA also called for the “sunsetting” of key restrictions on Iran’s freedom of action which means that at the end of various fixed periods they would terminate automatically and Iranians would be able to do pretty much what they wanted to do as far as the JCPOA was concerned.
It was not for nothing that in the months before the military action that was eventually taken, the negotiations proceeded in spurts, as Israel and the U.S. were steadfast in trying to eliminate all of the loopholes of the early agreement, and with Iran unwilling to accept that the jig may finally be up.
In the larger sense, the exercise of the military option was a reversal of the Obama – and later Biden – acquiescence in Iran becoming a nuclear power. Indeed, just prior to the military actions, both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to seize every opportunity to emphatically declare that Iran will not be permitted to have nuclear weapons.
It is not hyperbole to suggest that this was a truly pivotal time and that it was heaven-sent that the Prime Minister of Israel and the President of the United States were able to see things as they were and act accordingly. The world would be a very different place if they didn’t.
