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Supporters of moderate cleric Hassan Rohani celebrate his victory.

Hamene’i is afraid that a similar scenario might occur, especially because of the wave of revolutions in the Arab world that began at the end of 2010, and therefore, this time he decided to “throw a bone” to the people, by allowing the elected candidate to be president and not manipulate the result of the elections. The evident joy that the youth in the streets showed in the beginning of the week was evoked by the fact that this time they managed to force their preference for president on the supreme leader.

The fifth point is the negotiations with Western countries about the nuclear project. These negotiations have been ongoing for almost 20 years and the Western countries have not been able to stop the project. Only the invasion of Iraq in 2003 caused a delay, because the Iranians feared that they would be next in line. Because they have since understood that the American tiger is just a paper tiger, they have renewed the operation of centrifuges, to the point that today they are on the verge of creating a nuclear bomb. Undoubtedly, the tactic of the Iranian negotiations, based on the practice of taqiyya and khod’eh – pretense and deceit – has succeeded beyond all expectations, and has brought them to the gates of the nuclear club without having to pay an intolerable price.


The talk in Israel, the United States and Europe about attacking the Iranian nuclear project has convinced Hamene’i to present a pleasant, moderate, modern and multi-lingual image to the world, to fool the bleeding hearts in the West into thinking that Iran has become a normal, peace-loving state. It will take a month and a half for the new president to assume his new role, and until he begins to function it will take another few months, more time will pass until the appointed time for the renewal of negotiations and then the world will find that nothing has changed, another whole year of futile negotiations will have passed, and meanwhile the centrifuges are spinning, the uranium is becoming enriched in military amounts and Iran will have managed to fool everyone again.

The sixth point is the Syrian matter. It is no secret that Iran is deeply involved  in the cruel civil war in Syria, which has deteriorated recently into a regional Sunni-Shi’ite war. The West has known for some time that Iran is part of the problem, and refuses to see it as part of the solution, because from the Iranian point of view,  Asad must continue in his role. Hamene’i assumes that a”pleasant” president will be more accepted in the West as someone with whom to discuss the events in Syria. This way, Iran will become part of the solution and will be able to impose its solution on the West – which has no desire to become actively involved.

The seventh point is the economic sanctions, which have caused significant harm to the economic stability and therefore also the political stability of Iran. Hamene’i assumes that the president’s pleasant demeanor will make it easier for the people in the West to claim that the sanctions do not lead to the desired results, the suffering gets transferred onto the simple people and the nuclear project continues undisturbed anyway. Rouhani’s pronouncements after the elections were exactly this. The Iranians know very well that there are many financiers and managers of Western companies – especially in Europe – who are burning to renew economic ties with Iran in order to share the profits from the oil, gas,  petrochemical industry and infrastructures of this country. A president of Iran who does not arouse opposition will help these greedy people to pressure their governments to renew the economic connections with Iran, both over the table and under it.

The result of all that is written above is that from the point of view of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamene’i, the new president of Iran should open a new page in the relations of Iran with the world as a sort of taqiyya and khoda’a, so that Iran will continue to be what it is – a dark and radical state, controlled by a group of narrow-minded ayatollahs who are stirring up the Sunni-Shi’i conflict and who threaten world peace with doomsday weapons that are meant to impel humanity into uncontrolled chaos,  thus bringing about the return of the Mahdi – the hidden imam – to impose the Shi’ite religion on the Sunni Islamic world in the first phase, and on all other parts of the world in the last phase. This is their world view, and it is their declared goal.


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Dr. Mordechai Kedar is a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. He served for 25 years in IDF military intelligence specializing in Syria, Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups, and Israeli Arabs, and is an expert on the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups.