According to Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, a former deputy head of the Palestinian Desk in the IDF Planning Directorate and a senior officer in Naval Intelligence, Israel is entering a new and intermediate phase of the war known as the “Little Gaza” plan. The strategy involves occupying and clearing additional areas, following the model recently applied between the Philadelphi Corridor and the Morag Corridor in the Rafah region. A central goal of the plan is to establish humanitarian zones—particularly in Rafah—for the Gazan civilian population. The guiding principles are: preventing starvation among civilians, ensuring that the IDF is not directly responsible for distributing aid, and making certain that humanitarian assistance does not reach Hamas.
Writing in Maariv on Monday, Yagur notes that for the first time, the IDF intends to directly address the civilian dimension of Gaza as part of its strategy. The aim is to render Hamas irrelevant in the eyes of the population by stripping it of one of its key symbols of sovereignty and major sources of income—its control over civilian services and aid distribution. This marks a significant shift from the IDF’s previous reliance solely on military pressure, which in recent weeks has shown limited success in compelling Hamas to make concessions. Yagur argues, lamenting the valuable time lost, that this civilian-focused approach should have been implemented at the start of 2024, as the IDF itself has publicly stated more than once.
THE PLAN
According to a political source present at Sunday night’s cabinet meeting, the plan includes several key elements: occupying and holding territory in Gaza, relocating the civilian population southward for protection, cutting off Hamas’s access to humanitarian aid distribution, and conducting intensified strikes against the group—measures described as essential to achieving its defeat.
During the discussion, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated, “We are on the path to defeating Hamas, and this will also help secure the return of the hostages.” Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed this sentiment, calling it “a good plan” that can accomplish both objectives: defeating Hamas and bringing the hostages home.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated Monday that the cabinet’s decision explicitly rules out any withdrawal from territories the IDF will occupy in the Gaza Strip—even in exchange for the release of hostages. “From the moment the ground operation begins, there will be no withdrawal from the areas we take—not even for hostages,” Smotrich said, and added, “The only way to free the hostages is by subduing Hamas. Any withdrawal risks bringing about another October 7. Once you occupy and stay, only then can you begin to talk about sovereignty.”
UN UNHAPPY
The cabinet’s decision to expand the military operation in the Gaza Strip and move toward occupying parts of it is receiving wide coverage in major international media outlets, with headlines largely focused on the implications of an IDF ground takeover. A central concern dominating global coverage is the potential worsening of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Many reports note that while Israel has introduced a new plan for aid distribution, UN agencies have dismissed it as unworkable and ineffective, possibly because the IDF plan envisions a Gaza Strip without Hamas, and Hamas has been providing UN agencies in Gaza with many of their employees.
The Financial Times’ response was typical of the mainstream media in the West as well as inside Israel: “Far-right ministers on whom Netanyahu’s coalition depends for its parliamentary majority have for months been demanding a far bigger operation in Gaza, including full reoccupation of the territory, despite Hamas still holding 59 Israeli hostages — fewer than half of whom are still thought to be alive.”
The FT also cited a relative of a hostage’s family who claimed, “The vast majority of the Israeli public views the return of the hostages as the nation’s highest moral priority.”
That’s a lie. In reality, Israelis appear split down the middle over which is more important, getting a hostage deal or destroying Hamas. Some believe both are doable, meaning that first Israel would promise to leave Hamas alone, then receive the hostages, then renege on its promise and destroy Hamas.
Because Hamas’s blood-crazed leaders were born yesterday and couldn’t imagine such a scenario and prepare for it with guarantees from, say, China, Russia, or even the Trump administration.
According to Yagur, with proper and swift implementation, the humanitarian aid program for Gaza could quickly reveal itself as a powerful form of civilian pressure on Hamas, one potentially more effective than the military pressure the IDF has relied on over the past year. Once Hamas is stripped of its direct interface with the civilian population, along with its authority and sources of influence, including aid distribution, the dynamic could shift significantly. This loss of control, Yagur suggests, may open the door to greater flexibility in hostage negotiations and possibly broader diplomatic opportunities, including the potential for voluntary emigration initiatives.
I hesitate to spell out what I think about the hostages’ chances of survival, regardless of which option is taken.
