Not all guesses are created equal. In the face of uncertainty (and isn’t everything uncertain, in the end?) we seek clarity, guidance, and a pathway to making good decisions. I have seen this over and over again in nonprofit budgeting – in the absence of not knowing for sure how things will play out, we do our best to make wise choices about spending and saving.
And yet, there are many ways to predict the future. Guessing relies more on instinct, using our gut to figure out what’s likely to happen next, and how we should respond. Estimating is often more evidence-based, such as when you review revenue history for the past five years of an event to determine how much profit to project in the coming year.
But beyond instinctual guessing and structural estimating, there are also moments where we just need to take a leap, moving into the unknown without a clear, evidence-based pathway forward. And while I wouldn’t recommend doing this for cash flow projections, all great innovations have involved some element of risk; a walking forward without seeing the full staircase.
May we all have the wisdom to estimate our choices, and the courage to move forward, anyway.
