How many times have you heard someone say, “In my estimation”… and then when the results come in they are nowhere near the actual original estimation.
Here’s an example, in 1994 I bought a house which was supposed to be ready in April 1996. Now of course, knowing that estimations are usually wrong, I moved to the area in July 1996. I figured that three months later was a safe bet that the house would be ready. When did I and my family actually move in? Sept. 24, 1996. So the estimate was actually five months off. Not so bad. This happens in most estimations.
When are estimations usually correct? Well, when we use Waze here in Israel, it generally is correct. Perhaps one minute off here or there. So in my estimation, you cannot rely on estimations.
Of course, estimations are fun and give you a goal to achieve your result. And so, I would conclude this article by saying that estimations are not exact. They are one step away from predictions or forecasts. But that is a subject for another time.
