Recently, the United States has betrayed the following countries; Egypt (wanting to support a Muslim Brotherhood government); Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey (supporting their side in the Syrian civil war). And it has left a mess in Iraq. Do you think at this moment Israel is going to trust the United States at the peak of distrust in modern times? Consider this too, what will happen when the U.S. soldiers come back in body bags? How long will the U.S. commitment last before dumping an independent Palestinian State on Israel? How long will the American people accept photos of dead Palestinians, much less dead Israelis?
Remember clearly that there will be Turks, Iranians, Arabs, Islamists, and Palestinians who will not to accept the solution or who will continue fighting. And sooner or later, the United States would leave the new state and leave Israel with a mess.
Since this will cost a great number of American fatalities; money, conflicts of agreement, interpretation, and prestige in the Middle-East; and constant American interventions, such a solution will not work. I cannot conceive that people do not look forward in this way and rather seem to be guided by wishful thinking that the conflict will end suddenly.
It is no accident that Israel has never been willing to trust its security to a third party. This is a roadmap for increased conflict.
For example, is the U.S. air force going to bomb a building in Gaza that is an open headquarter for Gaza rocket and terrorist attacks? Will it aggressively go after foreign fighters, even if those foreign fighters have attacked Americans? Will it send them to Guantanamo Bay? Will it respond to criticism in the UN? May I point out that U.S. counterterrorism policy has not been very aggressive of late.
Think about Benghazi.
The United States will then have two choices:
1. The U.S. helps Israel, albeit with constant opposition, and alienates the Arab and Iranian and Turkish world.
2. The United States will gradually get tired of the burden and walk away from it.
In other words, Israel would not benefit from what can only be called “ObamaStrategicCare.”
If you like it, no matter what you’ve heard, you can keep your strategic patron or plan, you can keep your ally (Obama), and you’ll save money. No one will be able to take that away from you.
About the Author: Professor Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. See the GLORIA/MERIA site at www.gloria-center.org.
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