Opponents to the agreement with Iran are lacking approximately nine Democratic senators to override a Presidential veto of its rejection, but the truth that is an opposition victory might have limited meaning.

Congress cannot strike down the agreement, which was made along with five other Western powers. All it can do is block President Obama’s agreement to lift U.S. sanctions.

Doing so would be very significant, both politically for President Obama and the Democratic party as well as for American’s relations with the other P5+1 countries and Iran.

There are seven undecided Democratic senators, according to a tally by the Washington Post’s Amber Phillips.

If all of them turn against President Obama, it will be easier to convince a couple of others whose positions are not yet known.

The seven undecided Democrats, acceding to Phillips, are:

Michael Bennet of Colorado;

Ben Cardin of Maryland;

Bob Casey of Pennsylvania;

Joe Donnelly of Indiana;

Tim Kaine of Virginia;

Bill Nelson of Pennsylvania;

and Mark Warner of Virginia.

Cardin is one of the most important of the undecided. He attends Baltimore’s largest and wealthiest modern Orthodox Beth Tfiloh Congregation, which is highly pro-Israel.

He told NPR this week:

Israel’s security issues are of major concern. We don’t want to see an arms race in the Middle East, so it is a factor. And it’s a factor that I’m sure we will carefully consider.

Earlier in the week, Cardin told Bloomberg:

There is no trust when it comes to Iran. In our deliberations we need to ensure the negotiations resulted in a comprehensive, long-lasting, and verifiable outcome that also provides for snap-back of sanctions should Iran deviate from its commitments.

The nine Democratic Senators whose positions are not known are:

Cory Booker of New Jersey;

Maria Cantwell of Washington;

Claire McCaskill of Missouri;

Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota’

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota;

Barbara Mikulski of Maryland;

Sen. Patty Murray of Washington;

Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan; and

Sen. Jon Tester of Montana.

One of the most pivotal of the “unknowns” is McCaskill. She stated this week:

Preventing Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon is paramount to our national security, and if this agreement accomplishes that goal, it will make the world a safer place for America and our allies. I plan to spend the coming weeks taking a hard look at the agreement’s details to ensure that it will result in a verifiable way to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.”

Phillip’s tally shows 43 senators “leaning” to vote against ObamaDeal, including New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, and only 26 are in favor or are leaning in favor.

Geologists have discovered a layer of shale saturated with natural gas and oil deep beneath the city of Williston, North Dakota, and the Bakken formation, spanning thousands of square kilometers, has become synonymous with an American economic miracle the country hasn’t experienced since the oil rush of 100 years ago, Spiegel reported Friday.

North Dakota now enjoys full employment, and the state budget shows an estimated surplus of $1.6 billion in 2012. Local truck drivers, for example, are earning $100,000 a year. President Obama has called the discovery of Bakken and other shale gas formations in Texas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Utah a “stroke of luck,” saying: “We have a hundred years’ worth of energy right beneath our feet.”

According to Fortune magazine, low natural gas prices – natural gas in the United States now costs a quarter of what it did in 2008 – could fuel a comeback of American industry. “Low-cost natural gas is the elixir, the sweetness, the juice, the Viagra,” an American industry representative told Fortune.. “What it’s doing is changing the U.S. back into the industrial power of the day.”

According to Germany’s foreign intelligence agency (BND) study, the political threat potential of oil producers like Iran will decline. In about 15 years, optimists predict, the U.S. will no longer have to send its aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf to guarantee that oil tankers can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz.

No one knows what would happen with the Russians, since President Putin’s power is founded on oil and gas revenues. If energy prices decline and Russian revenues go down as a result, Putin could be expected to revert to old Soviet methods of maintaining power, both at home and abroad.

The Arab regimes in the Middle East would have to either use their enormous cash reserves to invest in new products and services (see Qatar’s and Bahrain’s efforts to develop a thriving tourism industry), or slip gently into their former role in world politics, amid the sands of Arabia.

According to Spiegel, German chemical giant BASF has already invested a lot of money in the United States in the last two years. In Louisiana, it has built new plants for the production of methyl amines and formic acid. “The local natural gas price is a criterion that affects the question of where we invest in new production facilities,” says BASF Executive Board member Harald Schwager. At the moment, the United States has a clear advantage over Europe in this regard.”

Dr. Aaron Lerner of IMRA summed this up:

#1. In a few years the US won’t be as concerned about what the Arab think. #2. In a few years the Chinese won’t consider energy supplies from the Arab world as being of paramount importance for its own continued stable growth. #3. In a few years even France and Germany may become energy sources rather than importers.

Certainly sounds like Israel will be in a considerably more favorable position at that time.

So much for the argument that Israel should rush now and cut a lousy deal
with the Palestinians because “time is not on Israel’s side.”

         The Mishna teaches us, “Appoint for yourself a rav” – a Torah guide, from whom you can acquire clarity through wisdom.

         When one’s own rav is not available, shailos may be called into the Institute of Halacha, 410-484-4110, Monday-Thursday, 2-5 p.m., Friday, 11 a.m.-2 p.m., or e-mailed to: Halacha@star-k.org.